Coming off an unexpected run to the 2008 World Series, it seemed like the sky was the limit for the Rays in 2009. But they hit a few bumps in the road for a team that was still very young. The Yankees re-loaded and several players the Rays counted on for big years came up small. The Rays did not pitch or hit as well in ’09 and that led to, what many considered, a disappointing 3rd place finish in the AL East. The good news for Rays fans (yes we now believe you exist, at least in a pennant race) is that the team is still very young and long athletic talent and hard throwing arms. The sun can shine outside Tropicana Field in 2010.
For the Rays to make a move on the Yanks and Sox in the east they will need to become a more efficient offensive team. The Rays have plenty of speed and power in their line-up, but they also hit for a low batting average and strikeout at an alarming rate. The Rays had 5 players K more than 100 times last year, three of which were over 140 and they had 2 more that had 89 or more. Far too many unproductive outs and missed opportunities. The Rays also had 5 players with more than 282 AB’s that hit .253 or lower. The Rays averaged nearly 5 runs a game last year, how many more would they have scored had they not had some of those holes in their line-up.
Perhaps more disturbing than some of those numbers was the fact that players like BJ Upton, Dioner Navarro and Pat Burrell had disappointing seasons. Upton, in particular, was expected to have a huge year after his October heroics in ’08. The Rays did have guys like Jason Bartlett, Ben Zobrist and Evan Longoria put up big, and in some cases unexpected, numbers. Upton is likely to contribute more in ’10. Burrell and Navarro are not, but can Carlos Pena continue to produce runs with a ever plummeting batting average. If things break right for the Rays in ’10 their offense could rival the Red Sox.
If that happens then watch out because the young arms that Tampa Bay features in their rotation could be ready for a breakout season. Matt Garza, Jeff Niemann, Wade Davis and David Price all have top of the rotation stuff. They do need to hone their crafts and be more consistent with their location. While I think it will be hard for Niemann to top ’09, I do expect Garza, Price and Davis to take big steps forward. James Shields is also a reliable starter who keeps the Rays in games. Shields is also the oldest Tampa Bay starter at the age of 28. The future of this staff is bright, if the Rays can keep them healthy and together.
The Rays bullpen features the key off-season acquisition in Rafael Soriano. Soriano will take over the closer roll that the Rays had a hard time filling last year. Troy Percival does not look like he will be healthy again in ’10. Soriano, if healthy, can hold his own in the role and he is backed up by some experienced bullpen arms in JP Howell, Dan Wheeler, Grant Balfour and former Oriole Chad Bradford.
If I had to pick which team has the greater chance of catching the Yankess in the AL East, I would pick Tampa. I have a sense that many of the young players are hungry to get back to the post-season and that the young arms are ascending at the right time. I would not be surprised to see the youth of Tampa Bay served this year.
The AL East has the by far the toughest competition in baseball, but I'm not sold on the Rays being amongst the Top 3 teams in the league.
They'll be better than the O's, but I stand by my opinion that if the Rays are around .500 near the all star break, they'll blow up this team and Baltimore has a chance of finishing in 3rd in the East.
Hopefully Bruz jumps in on this post. He had some good comments about the Rays on the Yankees preview.
I'll use a Bruz phrase…Tampa caught "Lightning in a Bottle" in 2008. Do they have some talent? Sure, but that 2008 season was an aberation. I can't see more than a 3rd place finish for the Rays.
What teams besides the Yankees and Red Sox are better than the Rays?
Doesn't matter when those two teams are in your division.
None, the Rays will finish third in the AL East. The season has been pre-ordained by the MLB gods. I don't see any surprises coming out of this division.
Unless injuries catch up with one of these teams.
Polester I think TB MIGHT have something to say about the AL East winner come August. Maybe it's just me, but the Bombers are meat and Blowsox are mixed nuts…TB has a nice blend.
Jeff,
I have to disagree with you about the offense. There is little correlation between a team's batting average or a team's strike out rate, and their success in the standings. If that were the case, one would might conclude that the O's were an above average offensive team last year, since we struck out less (2nd least overall) than the Red Sox and had roughly the same team average. However, the O's scored fewer runs than every team in the AL East, and were outscored by 15 other teams in MLB.
However, there is a strong correlation between a teams OPS and their overall success. The Ray's were 4th in OPS in 2009. This translated to them scoring the 7th most runs overall. Their offense isn't what kept them behind the Yanks and Sox.
The biggest difference between the 2008 Rays and the 2009 Rays was their starting pitching. Compare their starter's ERA and total IP for the two years.
2008 4.54ERA 970IP 427ER
2009 3.95ERA 973IP 489ER
Their starters were allowing on average a half a run more per 9IP in 2009, which turned into 62ER over the whole season. This was most visibly seen in their top of the rotation SP including Kazmir, Shields, and Garza. All regressed from 2008 to 2009.
Now look at their bullpen:
2008 3.55ERA
2009 3.98ERA
For the Rays to to hit the playoffs in 2010, the Rays pitching has to step up.
Just as a side note: the O's 2009 starters pitched the fewest innings overall, and were tied with the Padres for the worst ERA in the league.
Those are some great notes Casadilla, you definitely pulled out the stats. The Orioles have typically had success at the plate and their line up is actually pretty solid compared to other line ups in the majors. It's pitching and defense that has killed them.
With that said, how do you see the Rays finishing this season?
Casa-Stats…Well done…I love the numbers…Well done! I recall reading the impact Percival had on the young staff back in '08, both as closer and mentor…Then last year he was injured or ineffective or both…And Shields and the other starters didn't have their normal off-season after having gone 'till almost November…Shields and Garza should be fine…Niemann, Price, and Davis are largely unproven…I don't see the Devil, I mean, Rays as real threat for the Wild Card in '10…
Totally agree Bruz. Everyone is hoping they'll knock off the Yanks or Red Sox again, but that sort of thing takes years to make happen and is tough to replicate.
Very good post Casadilla.
Numbers can be very deceiving.
I believe TB will contend with NYY and Boston unless they are hit by the injury bug again. They just don't have the depth to overcome anything major.
I agree with Mark, TB scares me. They have a nice mix of youth and veterans, a decent pitching staff. IF they stay healthy, the will contend. Mark- why is it that you and I are the ONLY ones who know what's going on in sports???
Thanks for all the positive feedback. I'm glad I could contribute something to the discussion.
Predicting the results in the AL East in 2010 is difficult. At the end of the day, I believe the starting rotation that pitches the best and stays the healthiest will find their place in October. I think it's safe to assume Baltimore and Toronto will find their places at 4th and 5th, but for NY, Boston and Tampa we need to compare their rotations.
In my opinion, Boston has the best rotation of the three with Lester, Beckett, Lackey at the top, and some combo of Wakefield, Matsuzaka, and Buchholz at the back end. That being said, they have some concerned with durability. Beckett, Lackey, Dice-K and Wakefield all have various issues with their arm or back.
New York is similar to Boston, boasting a deep and talented rotation with Sabathia, Burnett, Pettite, Vazquez, and Hughes. New York has it's own health concerns with Burnett and perhaps Pettite (age/wear and tear) and Hughes (rib), though they are probably more reliable for innings than Boston's rotation.
Tampa is different from the two goliaths. It has some very talented arms that have shown much potential in Shields, Garza, Neimann, Price and Davis. But, the progress of the team will hang on how quickly each reaches their ceiling (much like the O's). Shields is consistently above average, but not great. Which is not good for an "ace" in the AL East. Garza has a higher ceiling than Shield IMO, but needs to cut down on walks if there's to be real improvement. Otherwise he'll be above average–which is very valuable in the East–but doesn't beat the YankSox come crunch time. Neimann and Davis will produce quality starts, and I don't have too much to add about them. I like their innings and I think they will be durable and consistent, but not superior pitchers.
The real difference will be in the progress of Price. He's got amazing stuff and is a fierce competitor on the mound. His problem in 2009 was command and allowing HRs. Watch his walks and the development of his changeup. If these two show polish up, then look out because. Tampa also has Jeremy Hellickson in the minors who is probably a notch better than Davis and Neimann. He's MLB ready, but doesn't have a home in the rotation until a vacancy occurs. If someone goes down, he'll step in and be just fine.
So predicting the AL EAST winner is more about predicting the injuries to me. I do not believe Boston or NY will get 30+ starts from all of their 1-3 starters. Lester and CC, yes. The other 4 I wouldn't bet on–too much injury risk. However, I do believe this will happen with the Rays. While not as talented as the YankSox at the top, they're just more durable and have more depth at the back end. Thus, I see it as:
1st: New York
2nd: Tampa
3rd: Boston
4th: Baltimore
5th: Toronto
Sorry for the long post, but I'm a huge nerd when it comes to baseball.
Casadilla,
Great stuff! Hope to see more of you around here.
Love the posts Casadilla.
The one thing I keep hearing about Boston is how their offense is gonna be their downfall. Then I look at their lineup and chuckle.
The top 3 teams in this division are extremely good.
I'll say it again that they are the best 3 in the AL and 3 of the 5 best in the entire league. Philly and STL being the in the mix as well.
Hey Mark, I love it when folks attack the basket aggressively…Calling Tampa Bay a Top 3 team in the league when their starting rotation has what, maybe 40 or 50 wins between them coming in to the season is certainly a bold stroke…Will be interesting to see how it all plays out…And if Carl Crawford is still a Ray come 1 August…
Here's my first prediction Bruz. Crawford is out before August 1st and the Rays blow up this team.
That should allow Baltimore to top them this season, but it's tough.