In Atlanta, the Orioles face an opponent with a dominant pitching staff.  The Braves rank 2nd in baseball with a 3.07 ERA.  They lead the majors holding opposing teams to a .230 batting average and they are 2nd in all of baseball with 51 quality starts.  Simply put, the Orioles are likely to struggle to score runs this weekend.  Atlanta’s pitching staff excels at limiting base runners, they throw strikes and can get strikeouts when they need them.  As good as the Braves pitching staffs of the nineties were, the current staff seems to be more talented.

Conversely, the Braves offense if rather pedestrian.  Brian McCann is a dynamic bat and rookie Freddie Freeman is an up and coming hitter, but Jason Heyward is having a disappointing sophomore season and Chipper Jones is not the threat he once was.  The Orioles also catch a break with Martin Prado still on the DL with a calf injury.  The Orioles will need to contain the Atlanta bats to have much of a shot in this series.  The problem is that Buck Showalter has little idea what he will get out of his starting pitchers right now.

Orioles starters have struggled to throw many innings and aside from Jake Arietta no one has been consistent.  Fortunately, Arietta will get the ball this weekend and so will Jeremy Guthrie and Zach Britton.  Britton and Guthrie have been very inconsistent in recent starts.  Perhaps Britton is needing to make adjustments as the leagues have more video on and at bats against him.

Offensively, the Orioles continue to get power from off-season acquisitions Mark Reynolds and JJ Hardy.  Adam Jones also continues to up his level of play.  The rest of the power bats are not really keeping up.  Nick Markakis is swinging a better bat, but he does not seem like an offensive presence that puts fear into opposing pitchers.  Markakis is a table setter with very occasional power.  If anyone else steps up it will be huge against a pitching staff that will give the Orioles fits this weekend.

Here are the match-ups on the mound and the start times for the series:
Friday, 7:35pm MASNHD
Jeremy Guthrie (3-9, 3.93) vs. Jair Jurrjens (10-3, 2.07)

Sunday, 1:35pm MASNHD
Zach Britton (6-6, 3.38) vs. Brandon Beachy (3-1, 3.04)

The passed two decades have seen both franchises struggle to regain their former glory.  The Reds, to their credit, have made it back to the post-season on a few occasions (2010 and 1995).  And they won the World Series in 1990.  If nothing else this series should carry a great deal of nostalgia with it, and hopefully the play will be as crisp as well.

The Reds do seem to be a franchise headed in the right direction.  They have a group of young and talented position players including reigning NL MVP Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, Brandon Phillips and Drew Stubbs.  While they do have a potent line-up and a good mix of young and veteran talent, the Reds starting pitchers have struggled to repeat the success of 2010.  The Orioles will face two Cincy starters who have not been able to repeat their passed success in Travis Wood and Edison Volquez.  The question for the Orioles is whether or not their offense is capable of punishing bad pitching?

Offense has not been the only area of concern for the Orioles.  The team has seen break downs in all phases in recent weeks.  Defense and starting pitching have also struggled as well as the alarming trend of Orioles starters coming down with minor injuries.  Brian Matusz, who threw better his last start, is dealing with hamstring issues.  Jeremy Guthrie, who has been very inconsistent lately, with back issues and Jake Arrieta with a sore elbow.

The Orioles did not make any hay with games against the Nationals and Pirates.  Things could get a lot uglier in a hurry as the series against the Reds is the first of five straight above .500 teams the Orioles play to close out the first half of play.  Buck Showalter said it right a couple of weeks ago when he expressed that this was the time of year when a lot of teams sink or swim.  We will know whether or not the Orioles will stay afloat in the next three weeks.

Here are the pitching match-ups and start times for this weekend:

Friday, 7:05pm MASNHD
Edinson Volquez (3-5, 5.61) vs. Chris Jakubauskas (2-1, 5.14)

Saturday, 7:05pm MASNHD
Bronson Arroyo (6-6, 4.86) vs. Brian Matusz (1-2, 5.60)

Sunday, 1:35pm MASNHD
Travis Wood (5-5, 5.11) vs. Jeremy Guthrie (2-9, 3.79)

The Orioles, on the other hand, continue their inconsistent play.  They seem to be unable to put together any long stretches of excellent baseball.  Fortunately, aside from their 8-game losing streak in April, they have not had many prolonged periods of bad play.  The Orioles are thankful to have a break from AL East play.  They are 10-18 against divisional opponents.  The Orioles 21-17 record against opponents outside of their division is a good sign heading into this weekend, but they are also only 11-17 on the road.

Again the key for the Orioles in the series will be what kind of pitching they get from their starters.  Is Zach Britton fresh and ready to take the ball this weekend after being skipped to rest his arm?  Will Brian Matusz show some signs of life after three starts where his velocity has been down and his command off?  And what can the Oriole get out of Chris Jakubauskas?  Jakubauskas has been solid in his two starts, but he needs to attack the strike zone more consistently if he plans to hold onto a spot int he rotation.

Another key factor will be how the Orioles adjust to playing in a National League park for the first time this season.  Having Orioles pitchers work on their bunting will be fun to watch, but having Vlad Guerrero spectate for most of the series will not be fun for the Orioles.  Vlad will likely see pinch hitting duties this weekend, but will it be just for the pitchers or will it be for the struggling Derrek Lee.  Lee has been great defensively, but he needs to show some signs of life with the bat.

Looks like it will be a great weekend of weather for baseball.  Enjoy father’s day and the Nats/O’s simulcast.  Here are the pitching match-ups and start times:

Friday, 7:05pm MASNHD
Zach Britton (6-4, 3.18) vs. Jason Marquis (7-2,  3.67)

Saturday, 1:05pm MASNHD
Brian Matusz (1-1, 5.11) vs. Jordan Zimmermann  (4-6, 3.10)

Sunday, 1:35pm MASNHD
Chris Jakubauskas (1-0, 5.09) vs. Tom Gorzelanny (2-4, 4.25)

The Orioles will be a maddening team this year.  Perhaps more so than when they were just plain bad.  Then we expected losing.  Now we see potential for them to reach the .500 mark, and when that potential is done in by sloppy play it is hard to watch.  So I will focus on some positive things I saw while reading up on the Orioles.  The first is a piece by Rob Neyer on his Baseball Nation blog.  Neyer offers some hope and sensibility to O’s fans frustrated by recent play:

Here’s the thing, though: Before Showalter arrived, the Orioles were 32-73. Since his hiring, the Orioles have gone 64-56 … which is still really impressive and does probably say something about Showalter’s talents. And suggests the organization is free of overpaid veterans like Derrek Lee and Vladimir Guerrero and comes up with some good young homegrown hitters, the 25-man roster will be in excellent hands.

Neyer does not gush about the specifics of why Orioles fans should be excited, but it helped me to gain some perspective.

Since Neyer did not do any gushing I will let this video gush for me.  For your consideration, I give you the awesomeness of Matthew Richard Wieters behind home plate.

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The Orioles will face a stiff challenge this weekend in the Rays, who are coming off a three game sweep in Anaheim.  Plus the O’s will faces 2 of Tampa’s 3 best starters in David Price and Jeremy Hellickson.  Hellickson has held the Orioles scoreless in 2 previous starts this year spanning 14 innings.  I would say that the best plan of action for beating the Rays is to get their starters out of the game and try and feast on their bullpen.  The problem is that Tampa’s ‘pen has been surprisingly strong this year.  

For the Rays on offense, Matt Joyce, Johnny Damon and Ben Zobrist are leading the way.  Joyce has been one of the surprise performers in the American League this year.  He leads the Rays in runs, homers, total bases, batting average and OBPS.  The Orioles will need to limit Joyce’s opportunities with runners on base.  Other key performers the Orioles will need to limit are Evan Longoria and Bossman Junior.  Bother Longorian and Upton have battled inconsistency this year, but they both seem to do most of their damaged against the O’s.  Tampa is by no means a powerhouse offense, but they have some dangerous hitters that historically hit the O’s hard.  Limiting Tampa on offense is key in this series as the Orioles are likely to find runs hard to come by.

While the Orioles starting pitching and bullpen have been very good lately, the offense continues to sputter.  Right now the club is riding Mark Reynolds’ hot streak.  Reynolds is starting to emerge as the power bat we expected and he has been good with runners on base.  Luke Scott showed some signs of breaking out of his slump in his one start in the series against Oakland.  Hopefully the cortisone shot does not wear off soon and Scott can have a big series against Tampa’s tough righties.  Nick Markakis is still missing in action.  It has been nearly a month since his last extra base hit and it leaves me wondering if he has it in him to return to his form of 2-3 years ago.  I wonder if moving him to the lead-off spot, with Brian Roberts out, might help him do what he does best…work counts and get on base.

The Orioles will need strong starting pitching to win this series.  I am curious to see what the Orioles get out of Brian Matusz.  He has had solid results in his two starts, but his stuff has not looked as crisp and his command has not been there.   I expect all the games this weekend to be close and low scoring.  The pitching match-ups are not in their favor, but these are the types of series the Orioles need to win in order to push above .500.  Speaking of pitching match-ups, here they are with start times for the series:

Esposito is know more for his glove than his bat, as he primarily played shortstop in college.  He is projected to move to third and will need his bat to become more consistent.  I college, Esposito showed good power potential, but was an up and down performer.  He reportedly needs to work on his swing mechanics to improve as a hitter.  His glove, however, should play well at third and he is plenty mobile for the position.

Wright is a tall right-handed power arm, who could move more quickly through the minors if the Orioles stick him in the bullpen.   Wright had a big junior year at East Carolina and as a result moved up a lot of draft boards.  He has the potential to be a late bloomer and could help an area of need should he end up in the bullpen.  The Orioles have struggled to develop many bullpen arms and it is likely that Wright could be put on the same tract as last years third round pick Dan Klein.

The Orioles had to wait until pick 64 for their second round selection as their were nearly 30 sandwich compensation picks handed out by MLB for free agent signings.  Where the O’s selected Esposito is equivalent to a late 2nd round/early third round pick.  Many of the compensation picks ended up in the AL East as the Toronto Blue Jays, Tampa Bay Rays and Boston Red Sox had a total of 20 picks in between the Orioles 1st and 2nd round pick.  This makes it even more imperative that the club makes the right pick in the early rounds.

Wieters and Jones have clearly emerged as the Orioles best all around players, which is a good thing, but the problem is that the team is getting little from some of their veteran cornerstones, namely Luke Scott and Nick Markakis.  With Brian Roberts and Derrek Lee on the shelf, the Orioles have much less of an offensive cushion when guys they are counting on don’t produce.  In order for the Orioles to make some noise in the series against the Jays and on this home-stand, the bats need to heat up.  Perhaps as the weather warms up in Baltimore, the balls will start flying further at the Yard.

The flips side of the ball having more life is how it affects the Orioles pitchers.  The ball carrying further is not something the Orioles want to see, at least when it some to the Blue Jays.  The Jays have one of the better offenses the Orioles will face this year, and that offense is built around home-runs.  The Jays come to town with, arguably, major league baseball’s best hitter in Jose Bautista.  If Bautista’s 2010 season was a surprise, how much more has his 2011 start been.  Bautista is leading baseball in home-runs with 20.  He is getting on base over 50% of the times and has a staggering 1.276 OBPS.  In an era where most of baseball’s sluggers are deflating, Bautista is proving that last year was no fluke.  The Orioles best option might be to force other Jays to beat them.  Toronto could be getting a boost in their line-up if Adam Lind returns from the DL this weekend.

The Orioles will need to get bounce back performances from LHP Zach Britton and RHP Jake Arrieta.  the key for both will be keeping the ball down in the zone and Arrieta in particular needs to locate his pitches better and work ahead in the count.  Here are the starting times and pitching match-ups for the series:

Friday, 7:05pm MASNHD
Carlos Villanueva (2-0, 2.62) vs. Zach Britton (5-3. 2.93)

Saturday, 7:05pm MASNHD
Ricky Romero (5-4, 2.88) vs Jake Arrieta (6-3, 4.97)

Sunday, 1:35pm MASNHD
Jo-Jo Reyes (1-4, 4.95) vs. Jeremy Guthrie (2-7, 3.24)

Baltimore Sun Orioles beat reporter Jeff Zriebec probably added some fuel to the Machado hype fire in a profile piece he wrote earlier in the week:

The minor league season gets underway for most of the Orioles’ affiliates on Thursday, and the clear headliner will be Machado, the third overall pick in 2010 out of Brito High School in Miami. Machado will start the season for Single-A Delmarva, but those who saw him play this spring are already imagining how quickly he could move through the system.

Though he does not speculate on how many years Machado will be in the minors, there is growing sentiment that the young SS could be on the fast track to join the Orioles.  Orioles fans have seen both Matt Wieters and Brian Matusz arrive on the fast track.  Their situations were decidedly different since they were closer to finished products when the Orioles drafted them out of college, but could Machado be the Orioles SS as soon as 2013?  It is not outside of the realm of possibility.  A lot depends on how quickly Machado moves up from A ball this year, and whether or not they are willing to promote him twice in one season.  If Machado is at Bowie (AA) by the end of they year, he would likely be in AAA in 2012.  Opening Day 2013 is not so far fetched, at all.

The Orioles have a big decision to make between now and whenever Machado is ready to hit the bigs.  Assuming Machado proves he is capable defensively as a shortstop, what does the club do about current SS JJ Hardy?  Hardy, who has already made a favorable impression on the club and their fans, is a free agent at the end of the year.  How Machado plays in the minors this year could have a huge impact on whether or not the Orioles look to extend Hardy with a multi-year deal.

In a piece for masnsports.com, our friend and fellow blogger Stacey Long makes a case for the O’s extending Hardy.  I agree that it makes sense to extend Hardy as he is in the prime years of his career, and he is a top flight defensive shortstop regardless of whether his offensive numbers bounce back.  Plus it makes sense if Machado is not ready in 2 years and it does not hurt to have depth on the major league club.  The problem may be that the Orioles thoughts about when Macahdo will arrive in Baltimore could have an impact on what kind of offer they send Hardy’s way.  If Hardy has a big year, he could be in a position to demand more money and years than the Orioles are willing to throw his way. Should the club make an effort to extend Hardy before the season is over?  And is Machado being over-hyped already?

Stingy Starter’s: Jeremy Guthrie set the tone.  Chris Tillman and Zach Britton followed in suit.  The Orioles starters shut down the Rays and were the biggest reason for the three game sweep.  No one is going to confuse Tampa with the ’27 Yankees and honestly they may have trouble keeping up with the ’10 Padres, but the Orioles shut down a club that is usually resourceful at scoring runs in their own park.

In Right-field… Clark Kent?: Nick “Nicky” Markakis was not wearing a cape when he soared through the florescent glow at Torpicana Field, but may start wearing one if he keeps making plays like that.  Markakis made the play of the weekend.  It is hard to say how the series would have turned out if he did not make the lead preserving catch.  Markakisis’ catch was the signature play of a weekend in which the Orioles flashed a lot of leather.  JJ Hardy had a great series int eh field and at the plate, Felix Pie’s throw to home in game two was huge and Mark Reynolds showed what an upgrade he is at the hot corner.

Britton Doesn’t Miss a Beat:The only bad news of the opening weekend was that Brian Matusz was placed on the DL with a strained back muscle.  The move put a damper on the Orioles mood after opening night, but for at least one start rookie Zach Britton showed the O’s might not miss Matusz that much.  Britton had to battle at times, but turned in a strong debut performance limiting the Rays to 3 hits and 1 run over 6 innings.  Perhaps what is even more amazing is that Britton stifled the Rays without his best pitch.  Britton admitted that he was too amped to have an effective sinker so he and Matt Wieters decided to work without it.  I guess Britton was being nice and giving the Rays a chance to hit him, but I would hate to see how effective he can be with his sinker in play.

Playing with a chip: It will be interesting to see if the Orioles can sustain this, but Showalter has them playing with a chip on their shoulders.  We saw it some last year, and they will need to keep it their this year to keep winning game.  Fortunately for the Orioles they have a lot of players who are looking to establish themselves as big leaguers, or who are looking to bounce back after down years.  In his tenure with the Orioles, Buck has proven that he is good at motivating his guys and getting them to expect to win games.

What was your favorite play or moment from the weekend?