I can only get so excited when Brian Matusz strands two with a pair of strikeouts in a beautiful Orioles victory over the Red Sox in Fenway Park. He’s a former first round pick, this guy is supposed to be doing that in the starting rotation, not as a lefty specialist. I haven’t let go of Matusz in the starting five, but there’s certainly no denying his success as a relief pitcher.
Matusz has stranded all 17 base runners (3 in 2013) he’s inherited since becoming a reliever last season. In 2012, Matusz induced ground balls 40 percent of the time and as a reliever he held batters to a .113 average over 16 1/3 innings pitched.
Part of this effectiveness has to do with his approach of going right at hitters. In four innings this season, Matusz has induced four ground balls and 30 of his 52 pitches have been strikes. Out of the pen in 2012, Matusz’s K/BB ratio was 6.33 (3/19). He also posted a stellar .167 BABIP as a reliever a year ago.
With a reputation as a strikes thrower, Matusz is now beginning to get away with throwing pitches outside of the zone and having batters chase pitches they’re guessing will be strikes. A prime example of this was Thursday night in Fenway when he fanned Jarrod Saltalamacchia on a 3-2 pitch in the dirt.
Most impressive part of that strikeout? He came back after falling behind 3-0.
It’s difficult to tell if Matusz’s success as a reliever would translate into effectiveness as a starter. He hasn’t thrown more than 25 pitches in any of his 22 appearances in relief. Is he only this successful in small doses? How would he fare two or three times through a lineup?
Right now, the Orioles have a good thing going with Brian Matusz. As long as their rotation remains healthy, I think they have enough depth both in Baltimore and down on the farm (did you see what Kevin Gausman in Bowie on Thursday?!?!) to keep Matusz in the bullpen.
Zach Wilt is the Founding Editor of BaltimoreSportsReport.com and Host of the BSR Podcast. You can follow him on Twitter @zamwi or send him an email:zach@baltimoresportsreport.com.
Matusz has been a big disappointment to me. Goes back to his admission that after a very mildly successful campaign a few years ago, he admitted to “taking it easy” the following offseason.
You ain’t there yet, Brian.
If he can stay a lights-out reliever, keep him in the pen. Several points to make;
First of all, a very good reliever is not cheap in the MLB, provided it is not a guy on his rookie deal. FA relievers are getting 5-8 Million a season. Having Matusz develop into a reliable late-inning guy is certainly a value, and while less than Baltimore dreamed about him, would still represent solid value from a No.1 pick (go back and check how many No. 1s offer true value).
Secondly, guys with fringe fastballs but good deception will always have a hard time going through lineups 3 times a game unless they have immaculate control. Matusz is like a lot of guys in that if he can gain a tick on the fastball and come into a situation where no one has seen his arm angle and stuff, he’s not surprisingly more effective. Often MUCH more effective.
Thirdly, the math and analysis on late-inning dominance vs. mediocre starters is hardly decided. By that I mean, teams and analysts are still trying to come up with a complex and complete enough algorithm to determine how valuable are 75 late-game innings, or improving a club’s close-game success rate is compared to 200 innings of league avg or slightly below league avg. performance.
Currently the math simply isn’t very good, as simplistic reductive models leave a ton of things overlooked. Anyway, keep Matusz where he’s effective and where he’s shown he can provide value. It’s a sound strategy, its one which clearly the team is confident in, and the value of a Scott Downs type lefty in the pen is actually pretty significant. Just how significant might be a debate, but so long as he’s quality, i.e. continues to strand runners and excel in positive match-ups, he’s a serious value.