With their comeback win over the Royals, the O’s maintained their spot atop the AL East standings as they entered an important series against the cross-state Nationals, who . . . → Read More: Still Atop The AL East, Orioles Have Much To Prove]]>

Adam Jones keeps hitting home runs, but it will take more than that for this team to keep up their pace. (Denny Medley, US Presswire)

With their comeback win over the Royals, the O’s maintained their spot atop the AL East standings as they entered an important series against the cross-state Nationals, who have continued their emergence as a contender in the crowded NL East.  Every series is important for these Orioles however, who have yet to convince anyone (myself included) that their 25-14 (as of Friday) record is anything but a fun diversion before the division reverts back to the standard order of things.  Right now the only thing normal about the AL East is the Blue Jays occupying their usual spot in third.

And there are certainly reasons for concern.  The injuries are starting to pile up on this team, and there aren’t any more reserves left in Norfolk that give me reason for confidence.  Once Bill Hall was plugged back in at the major league level, you knew things were getting desperate.  Mark Reynolds remains out with a strained oblique (which one does not want to risk re-aggravating), and while that gives Ryan Flaherty a good opportunity to develop it strips Buck Showalter of the flexibility to insert anyone other than Nick Johnson into that spot.  With Endy Chavez and Nolan Reimold still out, Xavier Avery has performed admirably (his average may be low but he is showing tremendous poise at the plate) but he is not going to be a season-long answer, at least not yet.  The current roster is performing well, but there is very little depth for a team that was already thin to begin with.

The Orioles have already played two 15 or more-inning games this season, and with Jake Arrieta struggling, Tommy Hunter only in Baltimore because of injuries and Brian Matusz having not yet hit 7 innings in any of his 8 starts, the surprisingly strong bullpen is going to break down as the summer wears on.  It is at that stage that we will know if this team can continue to overachieve and defy all baseball logic.

Then again, weren’t we supposed to learn a lot about this team from their stretch against the Yankees (twice), Red Sox, Rays, and Rangers?  It seems like every win just makes us give another deadline for when we will really know if this team is any good.  Honestly, we might not be able to say for sure one way or another until the season is over.

One thing is for certain though.  This is a more resilient team than past iterations.  A few nights ago when the Orioles trailed the Royals 2-0 in the 8^th J.J. Hardy led off with a double followed quickly by Nick Markakis.  The comeback was on.  Then just as quickly it was off, as Markakis tried unsuccessfully to steal third, an Adam Jones strikeout, and a weak groundout by Matt Wieters.  Since it was getting late I thought to myself “here we go again” and turned my computer off.  I awoke the next morning and decided on a whim to check the score anyway.  This team allowed the Royals to tack that run back on yet still delivered in the 9^th to tie the game up and win it in extra innings.  I wondered, “what is this team and where are the Orioles?”

If you ask me, what we are experiencing right now with this Orioles team will not last.  The bottom will drop out and they will finish below .500.  But to see them, even for a short while, winning seven straight road games (hopefully eight, I am writing this on Friday) is like a long drink of sweet tea on a summer day.  Neither will last, but that doesn’t change how great it feels.

After a life ruining 3 hour 45 minute rain delay on Sunday resulted in a 12 hours of work, I got about two sentences deep into this column Sunday night before my face hit the keyboard. So one . . . → Read More: I’m From Out Of Town: May 14]]>

Did everyone already know Kristen Wiig was this attractive? Am I late to the party?

After a life ruining 3 hour 45 minute rain delay on Sunday resulted in a 12 hours of work, I got about two sentences deep into this column Sunday night before my face hit the keyboard. So one day late, with the guy sitting next to me eating a sandwich that smells unspeakably awful (like somebody slathered dirty socks in Sweet Baby Rays. How can he enjoy this? Is it a southern delicacy?), here’s what sports made my brain think.

Oriole Nightmares

If the Orioles were a boxer (and they’re going to be a boxer, because I like boxing), they’d be Cristobal Arreola. Let’s get past the doughy appearance here, and the awesome nickname “The Nightmare” (The only other nightmare who hasn’t eaten himself out of boxing is a Fin named Robert Helenius. Nightmare vs. Nightmare fight, do it before Christmas, Tim Burton special guest judge. It would promote itself if I wasn’t promoting it).

Anyways, Arreola fights don’t win beauty contests. Neither the man nor the team is light on their feet (Baltimore is dead last in the league in SB’s (10) and SB % (coin flip)). They’re not the embodiment of pugilistic precision (an exceedingly average average of .249, 13^th in MLB), and just like Arreola in the Molina fight, the O’s are going to look bad at times because of how much and how hard they swing and miss (277 K’s – 3^rd in the AL). Because of all these reasons, opponents can get confident and start racking up some nice numbers in the early going.

But just when the other guy starts to gather some confidence – KABOOM. The word “unloads” is apropos, as Arreola has a particular proclivity for caving in temples like Harrison Ford. When he swings, it actually looks like a guy trying to box with bowling balls glued to his palms. So unsurprisingly, when he hits, he hurts. The same can be said for the Orioles (5^th in SLG %, 3^rd in XBH, 1^st in HR, 1^st in Isolated Power). The offense for both is not a beautiful ebb and flow, but rather blunt force trauma. Like getting hit by a chunk of ice falling off of your house.

But the biggest negative that both boxer and Baltimore share is the inability to take what is given to them.  Arreola has 35 wins, 30 by KO. In case that doesn’t make it obvious enough, he’s not nearly as interested in reconfiguring scorecards as he is in reconfiguring faces. He looks for the knockout all the time, every time, and mainly in his loss to Tomasz Adamek, it really bit him in his giant ass. He just kept walking into combinations and blindly pawing at Adamek’s face like a starved zombie.

The Orioles are in love with winding up and looking for that one big shot, and they’ve landed it plenty of times this year (56 HR, 1^st in MLB). But plenty of those long balls haven’t carried much weight behind them. Adam Jones and Matt Wieters are both in the top 10 in home runs, but barely inside the top 30 in RBIs. That’s because – as their mascot would suggest – the Orioles are much better at flying than walking (.311 OBP, 10^th in the AL, 13.44 PA/BB, 10^th in AL).

This is where the boxing metaphor ends, and I break into the $2 words. Because my big question is, can an offense subsist on the model the Orioles have built? Chicks definitely dig the O’s, but they simply don’t make scoring runs easy on themselves.

More worrisome is that despite the early power surge, the O’s are actually having a worse offensive season as a team than last year (lower BA and OBP than in 2011). Yet because of the insane rate at which they’re leaving the Yard, they’ve seen a jump in runs per game (2011 – 4.37, 2012 – 4.66). Either they’re going to have to start walking more, or the R/G is going to regress to a level maybe even slightly below where it was in 2011.

So if I were to say to watch for anything in the upcoming weeks, it would be patience as measured by PA/BB (plate appearances per walk). Of the teams that made the playoffs in the A.L. last year (and I’ll include the Red Sox in this discussion, because under the new format they would have made it) three of them finished in the top 5 in PA/BB: New York (1^st), Tampa (2^nd), and Boston (4^th). The Tigers finished 12^th, and had some help in the form of one of the most dominant pitching seasons since the mound was raised. The Rangers finished 22^nd in PA/BB, but they’re excused due to their lineup being stocked full of more arms than North Korea (they’re almost hitting .300 AS A TEAM this year).

Baltimore finished 24^th in PA/BB, and it cost them heavily in run production. They finished with the same number of runs per game as the Rays despite hitting 19 more homers, and look to be headed down a similar road this season. Knowing how to win with the knockout is definitely a great skill to have. But it’s just not always going to be there. Good boxers and good teams (except for the Rangers and their nuclear lineup) know how to win ugly.

Walks, singles, sac hits: essentially national league baseball. Knowing how to outpoint another team by being more active is of paramount importance over a long schedule. Over 6 months, hot and cold streaks undulate like the stock market, and small ball is how the good teams win when they’re not at their best.

With power to spare, the Orioles shouldn’t have to win that way too often, but 10 games in the win column can bridge the gap between the penthouse and the basement. So although it may be a non-traditional stat to look up, keep an eye on that PA/BB for Baltimore. Because if it doesn’t get lower than 13.44 where it’s currently at, you can expect this offense coming up punchless more times than you would care to see.

On the fans

Everybody on this site seems to have an opinion on what the appropriate fan response should be in Baltimore, with the Orioles rocketing further and further away from .500 for the first time in decades. I stand firmly in the camp that if your team is winning, you go watch. I know recent history, and I know it’s tough to trust a team that’s been bleeding the fan base dry for more than a decade. In my opinion, that’s all the more reason to go out and support them now.

Sports in general are so fickle and unpredictable in general that being cynical really saps any joy you can get from them. If you’re one of the fans saying “I want this team to prove to me that they’re for real before I go out and support them”, you’re missing the point. They’re for real RIGHT NOW. Every great team has started at one point as the flavor of the month. Two months from now, the O’s could be wracked by injuries or freefalling down the standings (I don’t want either of these things to happen, but they’re both possibilities), and you’ll just be the same old jaded asshole waiting for Ravens season to start.

Revel in the moment. I’m guessing the percentage of fans in favor of Adam Jones sticking around is about 80%. You want him to stick around? Show it. No more 11,000 fans against Texas, no more blank sections. There are plenty of places (Detroit, Texas, St. Louis) that would absolutely pack the house to watch him roam center.

I’ve been to three Orioles games this year, and I’m not even a fan. If I were still living at home, I’d be going to see the Mets continue to confound statisticians with their ability to stay in the black. Their -17 run differential is the same as the 13-20 Colorado Rockies, but they’ve somehow stumbled upon 6 more wins. I know they’re not for real, I know I’m putting money into the Wilpon’s pockets (for my money the worst owners in professional sports). But none of that matters because right now, there’s results and there’s s hope. As a sports fan, you sign up for that.

The Mets were overwhelming favorites to win the 2006 World Series. Then SI picked them to win the 2007 World Series. The last banner that was hung up in Queens still reads 1986. ESPN had 45 writers pick last year’s playoff teams before the season. 34 picked the Red Sox to win the World Series. 7 picked the Cardinals to make the playoffs.

So to sum it all up, you can put a book down halfway through if it loses your attention, but you don’t start one halfway through. Stop being cynical, stop waiting for the ride to end and just go enjoy and support what is one of the best stories in all of baseball AT THIS VERY MOMENT.

Oh Yeah, and Three More Things

1)   I really don’t think Tim Lincecum is going to return to All-Star form this year, more likely is that he’ll finish 2012 as a league average pitcher. I think he ends the year with an ERA near 3.90, and that’s purely because his career numbers dictate that’s what should happen. I’ve watched one full start (vs. the Mets) and parts of others. For the most part, his control has resembled the blacked out kid on the beer pong tables, and when he has been accurate, he’s been touched up (last start vs. the Dodgers). He’s the 3^rd best starter on the Giants now, and that’s not going to change.

2)   Anybody who watches baseball is waiting for the injury hammer to drop on Josh Hamilton, and his history says it will. But if it doesn’t, the Triple Crown is more within reach for him than anyone since Secretariat. He’s playing in an offense so stacked that teams couldn’t rationalize pitching around him even when he was Chernobyl hot this week (yes, that’s a plug for my 3^rd round fantasy movie draft pick. Go see Chernobyl Diaries, it will be good maybe). Last year’s AL batting champ is out for a few months, Albert Pujols isn’t going to win any category this year, and Hamilton has a “Tiger in the Early 2000’s” lead on the field in RBIs and Home Runs. We always say this is the year, but if those red letters don’t show up next to Hamilton’s name in 2012, it actually will be.

3)   With my horse in the NBA race knocked out by a fire extinguisher and knee injuries that an actual horse would be put down for, I’m rooting for Spurs-Celtics. The Spurs because Poppovich doesn’t get his due as a coach on the same level as Jackson, and the Celtics because I really dislike every single team left in the East but Ray Allen was my favorite college player growing up. Spurs-Celtics 2012, winner gets first batch of creamed spinach at Shady Acres.

…And Three Things to Watch

1) The whole Will Ferrell SNL Episode. But if you’re a person with stuff to do, then settle for this. It reminds you that Ferrell can be funny without even saying anything, and that Kristen Wiig has apparently always been really attractive but you probably never realized it.

2) If you’re not watching Game of Thrones already, do me and you a favor. Handcuff one hand to a nearby radiator, and use the other navigate HBOGO and play episodes. Catch up, and thank me when someone finds you.

3) Don’t want to count my chickens (I will anways, there are six breasts in the freezer), but the BSR Podcast may be the BSR Videocast this week. Watch me say all the stuff there that I write here.

When I started writing this post four weeks ago, I figured I’d be writing “what a great week for the Orioles” about as many times as “That new Adam Sandler movie looks like a return to form” and “I really enjoy the taste of a good . . . → Read More: I’m From Out of Town: May 7th]]> O What a Week

RIP Nathaniel Hornblower

When I started writing this post four weeks ago, I figured I’d be writing “what a great week for the Orioles” about as many times as “That new Adam Sandler movie looks like a return to form” and “I really enjoy the taste of a good olive” (I f***ing hate olives). And yet here I sit, and really: wow. What a great week for the Orioles. On a road trip that would have been a success at 3-3, the Orioles will land at BWI with series wins over two of the better lineups in baseball, and the best record in the sport. In other news, the elevator in the warehouse has a newly installed stop at Cloud Nine.

I said last week that what would make the media start to take stock of Baltimore would be solid pitching. This trip to the Hatfield’s and the McCoy’s had everything from serviceable (Chen’s workmanlike 5 IP vs Boston) to downright dominant. Jason Hammel was very good against New York, and ace-like against Boston. David Ortiz waving at a 2-seamer that was about a foot off the plate and then asking the ump if it was a strike stands out. Hammel turned a .371 hitter into a confused little leaguer. Mark that down as good.

Jake Arrieta and Matt Wieters found 9 separate marks in New York for a three-pitch monty game, and took them for all of their substantial worth. Brian Matusz might as well have moonwalked on the tight rope against the Yankees, busting fastballs in on lefties and burying changeups and curves like an undertaker.

Last week, I said the key to keeping up with the Yankees and the Red Sox would be minimizing walks and errors. In the Bronx, free passes were about as easy to find as free parking (4 BB issued by O’s pitchers in 27 innings) and errors were as common as cheap beer (0 errors by the Orioles the entire series). The trip to Fenway was definitely sloppier (6 errors in three games), but was saved by what has become the best firefighting unit in baseball: the Orioles bullpen. I hate to interrupt the parade coming down Eutaw, but it’s time to reach for your umbrellas.

Series wins in May do not win divisions (last year’s Indians team can tell you that). As impressive as the last 6 games were, think of the Yankees and the Red Sox like the main bad guy in a video game.

When you first face Bowser in Super Mario 64, it’s actually relatively easy. Then the second time, the easy strategies you used at first stop working and maybe you die once or twice. By the third time, the platforms are smaller, Bowser spews fire in every direction, blasts seismic waves in between, and it takes you half an hour of joystick mashing to come out on top.

The Orioles just strolled into the Bronx and took out Bowser #1. The Yankees will adapt: the firepower will get heavier (Cano and Teixeira will start putting up numbers befitting their names) they’ll be harder to hit (CC Sabathia’s ERA will dip under his weight), the weak spots will be smaller (Phil Hughes will not be in the rotation the whole season) and there will be a few new wrinkles to get used to (they’ll cut some checks and prospects to get starting pitching at the deadline). Beating the April Yankees is a good feeling, beating the July Yankees is tougher, and beating the finished product in September is only for advanced players.

The biggest test left for the O’s is some real adversity. Whether it’s a big injury or a prolonged cold streak, it’s going to happen. The Yankees won 97 games last year and lost 4+ in a row on three separate occasions. In a 162 game season, leaks spring up on the row boats and the cruise liners just the same. Buck will earn his paycheck patching those holes. For a lot of the players, this season is the first that they’ll face the legitimate outside pressure that comes with expectations. How will a group that has known so much failure hold up to being in the #1 spot?

At the 30 game mark last year, the division leaders were New York, Cleveland, Los Angeles, Philadelphia, St. Louis, and Colorado. Half of those teams made the playoffs. Am I buying on the Orioles yet? No, and it’s mainly because it’s difficult to accept some of the apparent truths this season has produced. If I wrote a preseason preview saying Jason Hammel is an ace, the new look Baltimore Bullpen (the Baltimore Bullets?) is the best in baseball, Chris Davis will finally find the directions on how to put it all together, and Robert Andino will hit .300, you sure as shit wouldn’t bother reading me anymore (well, at least until this week probably, by which time I would have invested all my time and money in the lottery industry).

But, at this very moment, I can see the home of the winningest team in baseball from my window. And if I were an Orioles fan, I’d be running through the streets spreading the good word of the Birds, clothes optional. So ride the black and orange wave until you hit the doldrums, and then – for your sake as fans and my sake as a writer – hope there’s another one behind it.

Just down 295

The Nationals pulled off a similar but slightly less impressive feat than the Orioles this weekend, knocking off a weakened incumbent with some timely hitting and great starting pitching. It was not without a price though, as it appears they’ve lost Jayson Werth for about three months to a broken wrist. Werth was 2^nd on the team in RBI’s and the all-important clean-up hitter for a lineup laboring to produce even a single run.

I still think the Nationals are a playoff team because of their insanely talented (and deep) starting rotation. Fortunately, it looks like the lineup will get their face (Ryan Zimmerman) back on Tuesday, and boom stick purveyor Michael Morse should be returning at the beginning of June. Those two should provide consistent production. But between the volatility of Adam Laroche and the big gamble that is Bryce Harper, the Nationals have to acquire a bat at the deadline if they’re serious about contending into September.

I recognize that Strasburg is (for now) on the innings limit this year, and maybe some people think next year is a safer time to push the chips to the middle.

But you don’t fold great hands, and you don’t wait a year when your starting pitching is producing at a borderline historic level. The Nationals have the 2^nd or 3^rd best top 3 in the league, and definitely the best 5-man rotation. If there’s a big bat available at the deadline, I think it would be hard to resist the temptation to swap some prospects in return for putting the Nationals firmly amongst the contenders in the N.L.

One last note on the Nats: It’s impossible not to like Bryce Harper the baseball player. He plays the game with his hair on fire (which might look better than what’s on his head right now), throws lasers from the outfield, and his BP sessions are just as awe-inspiringly ridiculous as you would think. Some people may not be big fans of his personality (Cole Hamels’ welcoming gift last night confirms that), but I know it pisses me off to see million dollar athletes dog it to first base. That will never happen with Harper who plays like a guy on a one day contract, except that he has prodigious talent, and baseball smarts (the steal of home last night took equally large brains and balls that 95% of MLB players don’t have). He’s here to stay. The next time he sees Syracuse will be if he decides to take in an Orangemen game.

Notes on Other Stuff

Great for Jered Weaver picking up the season’s 2^nd no hitter. The strike zone he was given had its own zip code, but it just felt wrong that human pitching machine Ervin Santana had one and the best pitcher on the Angels staff didn’t. Problem solved.

Matt Kemp got off to one hell of a start, but it looks like Ryan Braun has heard about enough of the KeMVP talk (Braun last 5 games: 4 HR, 7 RBI, 1.050 SLG). Having them both in your fantasy outfield (along with All-Star starter and Darnell McDonald life ruiner Adam Jones) is a lot of fun.

For two quarters, the Amar’e Stoudemire – Carmelo Anthony dynamic actually worked. Considering the Mets are in 3^rd place with a negative run differential right now, it was mighty white of the Knicks to get their first playoff win in their last 13 playoff games. Be forewarned: If I’m still talking about the Knicks in next week’s post, the whole damn thing will probably be about them.

Speaking of the Mets, their rollercoaster of mediocrity has been nothing if not surprising. Ruben Tejada is outplaying Jose Reyes, Minor League enigma and spelling bee nightmare Kirk Nieuwenhuis has somehow completely adjusted to major league pitching, and I don’t have to look at Jason Bay every day. It’s nice. But with a run differential worse than the 9-20 Padres, anyone buying on the Mets right now would have to be completely crazy and/or the Wilpons.

3 Things to Watch

1) God I love Between Two Ferns.

2) What the hell was this lady planning on doing?

3) It came out a while ago, but if you didn’t see Fight For Your Right Revisited, do yourself a favor. Make Some Noise showed that Beastie Boys were literally still as sharp in their 40’s as they were in their 20’s (Pass me the scalpel, I’ll make an incision, and cut out your part of the brain that does the bitchin). Awesome video with a cast of comedy all stars directed by the late Nathaniel Hornblower (MCA). Definitely sad that MCA is gone so young, but the Beastie Boys put out enough great music (and music videos) that they’ll be remembered for a long, long time.

This week has been bookended by two players at the top of their sports being cut down, at least for the year (I am not buying Terrell Suggs’ optimism that he will be . . . → Read More: Athletes Like Suggs, Rivera Deserve Freedom to Train, Not Restrictions]]>

Suggs will be missed this season, but that doesn't mean players shouldn't be allowed to exercise in their own way.

This week has been bookended by two players at the top of their sports being cut down, at least for the year (I am not buying Terrell Suggs’ optimism that he will be back in November).  Suggs tore his Achilles playing a pick-up game of basketball while Yankees star closer Mariano Rivera tore his ACL while shagging fly balls during batting practice, a regular practice for both players and a way they try to stay in shape.  It would be easy to use this as an opportunity to question what players should be allowed to do, but it is important now more than ever to recognize that players need the freedom to exercise on their own terms regardless of what fluky but terrible accidents might happen.

In sports, perhaps more than any other career path, one’s economic wellbeing is determined by their performance.  If they fail to perform in the NFL they will be cut with minimal repercussions to their employer, and even in baseball players are constantly playing for the next contract.  There is no flying below the radar and keep collecting pay in professional sports.  As such, the best keep themselves in incredible shape and constantly train, and it can’t always be under team supervision. 

Athletes are not gerbils.  We cannot put them on a regimen 24 hours a day, 7 days a week for the entire year, moving from the hamster wheel to a specially approved diet.  Fans can’t put them in a box and keep them from harm.  These are athletes; they need the license to be athletic.  If Terrell Suggs wants to play basketball in the offseason, let him.  If Mariano Rivera wants to stay in shape by shagging fly balls in the outfield before games he should be allowed to.  However these players made it as far as they did in terms of conditioning they should be allowed to continue.

I am not talking about riding a motorcycle without a helmet, skydiving, parkour, rock climbing without a harness, or any other activity that is excessively dangerous.  But if someone wants to go jogging in their neighborhood, go bowling with friends, help a family member move, or, yes, play Guitar Hero like a madman, let them.  The fact that they are being paid millions of dollars gives teams the license to control their every movement during the season, but even teams don’t have the time to control everything.

If Suggs was on his treadmill and slipped our reaction should not be to ban treadmills.  If Rivera got in a car accident our reaction should not be to ban athletes from driving.  Things happen in life, freak accidents that can bring down even the most physically imposing athletic specimen.  They don’t happen to the rest of us as often because we are not out there doing athletic activities nearly as often.

When a player goes down our instinct is to do something to make sure that it never happens again.  In this case I hope all of my team’s players are doing everything they can to stay in shape.  It is better for one of them to go down in the offseason than all of them to wind up unprepared for the season.  Let them train they way they are accustomed and more than that, let them have their own lives.  If they don’t play they will suffer far more than the fans.

A west coast trip for the Nationals, and a car accident: What are the reasons this article is up a day late. Now that I have a rental car (almost) and my brain is slowly starting to re-fire after a good night’s sleep, let’s . . . → Read More: I’m From Out Of Town: April 30]]>

I keep telling her "stop calling me at work".

A west coast trip for the Nationals, and a car accident: What are the reasons this article is up a day late. Now that I have a rental car (almost) and my brain is slowly starting to re-fire after a good night’s sleep, let’s stare at the Scarlett Johansson picture for a few seconds and then dig in.

Preorder your World Series tickets:

My benchmark for the home stand was 4-2, and the O’s went ahead and upped it to 5-1. Now the real test starts with the brutal schedule I alluded to last week. For the next 6 games, the Orioles will be sampling the various chowders of the Northeast. They then return home to face Texas (currently at their Chuck Norris best), and the Rays (currently atop the division unbeknownst to the people of Tampa).

In numbers you already knew without me telling you, those are the top 4 teams in RBI’s in the American League. I’m not saying temper your expectations, because the Orioles are playing well and you should ride the wave until it flattens out. What I AM saying is, be realistic. There are going to nights that starting pitchers get lambasted because the margin for error will be miniscule and the degree of difficulty will be gigantic. Texas and Boston don’t DO pitching duels just like Earnie Shavers didn’t DO decisions.

So what the staff (and the team in general) needs to do is clean up the mistakes. Keep the walks nicely trimmed (I’m looking at you Brian Matusz, AND your 5.66 BB/9. Tommy Hunter is also in the corner of my eye) and take out the errors where necessary (Days since Mark Reynolds has played 3^rd: 3. This number needs to keep getting higher).

Although I leaned on the fantasy quality start stat last week, what the Orioles need now are real world quality starts. The one’s measured by the question “did you give your team a chance to win the game?” Arrieta’s against the Yankees was definitely one, and Hammel definitely got the ball rolling last night. Let’s break down the pitching staff by how well I think they’ll be able to navigate this tough stretch.

Might as well have a GPS:

Wei-Yin Chen:

Does anybody else secretly watch Chopped like me? Good, this will make more sense. I see Wei-Yin Chen and Brian Matusz as two Chopped contestants. They have the same ingredients and materials (good changeup, 89-91 mph fastball, sweeping curve, sea urchin, fruit loops, and a full kitchen) but for whatever reason, Chen consistently produces a superior finished product. He’s more efficient with his time (16.6 pitches per IP, Matusz 19.1), keeps everything simple and clean (2.96 BB/9 as opposed to Matusz’s bloated 5.66), and he always seems to have a little something extra at the end to blow the judges away (7.03 K/9, Matusz 6.10).

Chen doesn’t waste many pitches (you may think no pitcher wastes pitches, but just wait), has a knack for keeping hitters on ice skates, and hides the ball better than anyone on the staff. He doesn’t have Jamie Moyer’s full book of tricks, but he has definitely read the Taiwanese Cliff Notes. Chen may not deliver gems during this stretch, but he’s not combustible, and he’ll have a heaping helping of innings, both very valuable things.

Jason Hammel:

 I’ve seen this guy before. Jason Hammel IS Mike Pelfrey in 2010. I could recognize that bowling ball sinker and buzzsaw two-seamer anywhere. I watched Pelfrey seemingly figure it all out for 3 months that year only for everything to completely fall apart in July, and he hasn’t been the same since. I hope Hammel doesn’t suffer a similar fate, because he looks outstanding right now.

I took an extended shot at Rick Adair’s coaching last week, so it’s only fair to give credit where credit is due. I don’t know what Adair did, but Jason Hammel is now the 2nd best groundball pitcher in the American League (an absurd 70.3 GB%). I’d throw more stats out, but my unfortunately my thunder has gone missing (I think it’s sitting somewhere in Ross Gore’s house).

Suffice to say, Hammel passes the eye test. The slider command is still flickering, but his command of the 4-seamer is effortless, and his 2-seam fastball can slap handcuffs on the best hitters. Just look at the pitch he rung up the red hot Edwin Encarnacion on. How does the ball end up that far inside, and how does he make a good hitter look so bad? Put it this way, Jason Hammel was the answer to “they traded Jeremy Guthrie for WHO?” Now, he’s the one pitcher who has proven he can pull the plug on a high-powered lineup on the road. I’d say the WHO has turned out pretty good so far.

Asking for Directions

Jake Arrieta:

            Dammit Jake, why can’t I quit you? The last highlight featuring Jake Arrieta on MLB.com is April 6^th. Although I think his start against the Yankees was damn impressive, very little about his past 3 starts have been (0-2, 5.94 ERA). His FIP of 4.43 during that span would suggest that lady luck has been unkind to him recently, but the fact remains that the even though the stuff is there, the results really haven’t been.

Maybe it’s that he’s predictable (Opp BA of .163 1^st time through the lineup, .286 3^rd time through the lineup), maybe he’s tipping his pitches, maybe I’m just giving him way too much credit. But for a guy with the best quality pitches on the staff, Arrieta should be better.

Here’s a shocker: Arrieta struggles against the monsters he’ll be facing in the coming weeks (5.51 ERA vs. Boston and Texas, 4.25 vs. New York). If there’s one thing I would say to watch with him, it’s whether he’s hitting the glove or not. He gave up a HR to a 3rd baseman in glasses last start, where Wieters called for a changeup down and away and Arrieta missed middle in. Against a lefty, that’s like missing the runway and hitting a mountain. Instead of counting the walks, count the mistake pitches and that’ll tell you whether Arrieta is unlucky or just not executing.

Get a Compass

Brian Matusz

            I know, I know. “Just look at his last start!!!” I did. I watched the whole thing, rewound it, and watched it again. The numbers look better than the pitching was. There are definitely GLIMPSES of a good pitcher. His curveball has the potential to be a legitimate out pitch, and I love when he starts batters out with it because he commands it so well.

But his bread and butter (I guess that would make the curveball the olive oil?) of the fastball and changeup are worrisome. At times, his fastball gets completely off its leash, in particular against righties. I’m talking all the way into the left-handed batters box wild. Those pitches have no purpose, and he’s clearly not throwing them there on purpose. That tells me that his control still has a long way to go.

For every great changeup that he pinpoints or buries, there’s one that hangs tantalizingly high in the strike zone. My biggest takeaway about his start vs. Toronto was the Blue Jays proclivity towards chasing pitches early in the count. What makes the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rangers lineups so good isn’t just firepower, it’s their patience. The Yankees in particular just do not chase pitches, so Matusz will need to be sharper than I’ve ever seen him in order to succeed.

Matusz had plenty of near misses against Toronto (Encarnacion hammered plenty of pitches just foul in particular). If he uses the Blue Jays start as a springboard, then he could be useful. But just know that the start he had against the Blue Jays would not have looked nearly as pretty against a better lineup.

Tommy Hunter

            Hunter is a tougher call to make than Matusz. His traditional numbers are a little bit lower, and three of his starts this season have been legitimately good. But, I’ll defer to the advanced metrics and tell you that Tommy Hunter’s FIP is 6.27. What that says is Hunter is benefitting from some good defense, and a very lower BABIP (.245). The fact that Hunter doesn’t strike a lot of guys out (5.12 K/9) only speaks to this more.

Maybe it won’t be this trip (I think it will be), but Hunter is going to come back down to earth unless something changes. Unlike Matusz, Hunter does hit the glove, but he’s a pitch to contact guy. Not a lot of those pitchers have had success against the big boy lineups this year.

I’ve been very pitching biased when talking about the O’s, but the headlines are really the same elsewhere. Matt Wieters is the best all-around catcher in the American League and getting better. I think Adam Jones will start in the All-Star game and finish with better overall numbers than Curtis Granderson. Mark Reynolds is down to 8^th in the lineup and couldn’t buy a hit if he was at a one-man auction.

The way I see it, the sun’s going to rise in the east and – more often than not – the Orioles are going to hit. Their lineup has talent top to bottom (including Chris Davis, who I’m VERY interested to watch these next few weeks), with most players having a track record of producing. They were a powerful lineup last year, and it didn’t get them anywhere. What WILL get them somewhere is a drastic improvement in their starting rotation, and only bending to great lineups instead of getting blown to bits (see the Boston – Texas road trip last year). It seems like the Orioles fan base is starting to wake up, these next two weeks will determine whether or not they hit the snooze button.

THE DRAFT

Although I like watching it, I do agree it’s impossible to judge a draft until 3 years after it happens. The Ravens didn’t get Konz or Hightower, and Konz must’ve landed on a chute because he slid a good deal down the board. I like the Upshaw pick essentially because I saw how absurdly dominant the Alabama defense was last year, and he was a big cog in that machine. He explodes off the tape reel, and seems like he can legitimately go sideline to sideline.

Guard is the least difficult position to fill on the O-line, and the Ravens added depth at the very least with Osemele and Gradkowski. If one of them sticks, then that will provide a band-aid for the Ben Grubbs wound. I watched Bernard Pierce do everything but shove an apple in the mouth of the Maryland defense last year, so I may have a skewed perception of him, but I like the pick. Could it be leverage in the upcoming Rice contract talks? Hopefully not, the Ravens can’t possibly be considering cutting bait with the very foundation of their offense in favor of a one note back in Pierce.

All in all, the Ravens draft was filled with quality, but bereft of fireworks. It was smart, and something they could afford to do. With an AFC Championship game appearance last year, there aren’t any glaring holes that needed addressing (besides a Matt Birk apprentice, but the pool of center prospects was noticeably shallow). My team on the other hand reached for the headlines with two physical freaks – Quinton Coples and Stephen Hill – with major questions (Hill didn’t run sophisticated routes in the triple option, and Coples essentially half-assed a whole year). I’m hopeful because of the undeniable talent both possess, but I’d be much more comfortable if Coples started every press conference by burning a Vernon Gholston jersey.

The NBA

Maybe next week. If I type more about the NBA I’m liable to break one of my fingers (via keyboard mashing or fire extinguisher punching).

Three things to watch

1)   The Avengers. Really good reviews, really tight black leather on Scarlett Johansson, and Samuel L. Jackson really has two eyes. What am I missing and what are you waiting for?

2)   Two great NBA series: Mavericks v. Thunder, Clippers v. Grizzlies. I agree that some regular season basketball games are mailed in. But not in the playoffs when the best players on the planet are out for blood.

3)   Jimmy Kimmel’s speech at the White House correspondence dinner. The Chris Christie jokes were hilarious, and the pile on Kim Kardashian just got bigger by one person.

Am I an idiot (about sports)? Let me know in the comments.

While the city of Baltimore remains inexplicably allied to the Washington Capitals’ playoff run (Why?! I will never understand it. I wouldn’t root for the Wizards and the Redskins and Nats are not my #2 teams in . . . → Read More: O’s Success Brings Mixed Emotions As Gauntlet Looms]]>

Don't smile. Whatever you do, don't smile. This is not funny... (Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images)

While the city of Baltimore remains inexplicably allied to the Washington Capitals’ playoff run (Why?! I will never understand it. I wouldn’t root for the Wizards and the Redskins and Nats are not my #2 teams in football and baseball so why in god’s name would I root for the Caps?  Go Flyers.), the NFL draft drones on (what is it now, three more weeks to go?), the Orioles continue to torment me with their success.  Why torment?  Because this team is so epically bad on paper, it is the team that truly looked like a rebuilding team, the kind of rebuilding that happens when you are building a sand castle at low tide.  The kind of rebuilding that causes you to ditch the few assets with any value for a bunch of assets with even less value.

2011 looked like a team ready to make a leap based on what would turn out to be unfounded optimism.  2010 had a number of proven pieces that resembled a .500 team back in March.  We know how those years turned out. Yet here we are about to turn the calendar to May and no matter what happens the Orioles will still be over .500 on May 1.  So… what gives?

The schedule, for one, has been kind.  After the Orioles face off against the Oakland A’s in a three game series this weekend they get the Yankees, Red Sox, Rangers, Rays, and Yankees again before the schedule eases up a bit.  If the Orioles are over .500 after that gauntlet (the Red Sox have too much talent to stay in the cellar) fans can have something to get excited about.  With just two series against pre-season division contenders (Angels and Yankees) the Orioles are just 1-5, including a home sweep at the hands of the Yankees.  They will have to do better than that if they are going to break their interminable losing streak.

But there are things to appreciate in the meantime.  For one, Nolan Reimold seems to be finally showing the promise he had as a rookie in 2009 and holding down the Left Field job and, surprisingly, the lead-off spot.  Like too many major league teams, the Orioles lack a true lead-off man.  Since Brian Roberts can’t be relied on to stay healthy, this will be a problem that is going to haunt this team down the stretch.  This team lacks a traditional lineup, with a lot of hitters playing out of their natural position in the lineup due to a lack of other options.  Wherever he is hitting, Matt Wieters has also begin to fulfill his offensive potential, slugging a whopping .610 and tying for third in home runs with 6.  Small sample sizes of course, but trends that Orioles fans were looking for and have begun to come to fruition.

For better or for worse, most of the pitfalls in that lineup have come from newly acquired players, most notably Nick Johnson, Endy Chavez, and Wilson Betemit.  Robert Andino will not hit .300 this season and  Nolan Reimold will not continue at his current torrid pace.  Baltimore needs their new pieces to start to pick up their play (in addition to J.J. Hardy, I have given up on Mark Reynolds) if they have any hope of creating the kind of balanced lineup that can survive a season of ups and downs.

I am also skeptical that Jason Hammel will suddenly have a better season than the remarkably consistent mediocrity he put on display in Colorado and Tampa Bay.  When Jake Arrieta pitches like an ace for an entire season and Wei-Yin Chen stays healthy I will start to believe that this team is on the right track, but we are far from that.  It’s amazing how in baseball a month of games is still too small a sample size to draw any conclusions from.

The next two weeks of Orioles baseball will give us a clue as to whether this team is as horrifically awful as I thought they would be before the season.  In the meantime I guess we have to enjoy it.  I just don’t want to enjoy it too much, because in the AL East there is no easy path, even to mediocrity.

The NFL Draft has grown steadily in popularity every year since has been televised. Now a primetime event with an in-your-face buildup and breakdown, a portion of the public is understandably suffering from “draftlash,” a knee-jerk aversion to all things speculative and celebratory about the league’s annual labor influx.

Is . . . → Read More: The Learning To Love The NFL Draft: Five Antidotes For “Draftlash”]]>

Jeff Zelevansky/Getty Images

The NFL Draft has grown steadily in popularity every year since has been televised. Now a primetime event with an in-your-face buildup and breakdown, a portion of the public is understandably suffering from “draftlash,” a knee-jerk aversion to all things speculative and celebratory about the league’s annual labor influx.

Is the NFL Draft over-hyped and over-analyzed? Almost certainly. Is it still the best off-season event on the calendar of the best sport on the planet? Absolutely. Here’s five reasons why.

The Combination of the Two Best Sports Ever
The only thing that might top the excitement of the NFL season is big-time college football. The draft is the melding of these two great enterprises into a single three-day highlight package. For NFL savants who live in college football-depleted regions (i.e. Baltimore), the draft is actually the most college football they’ll watch all season (albeit in twelve-second installments). For college football fans, it affords an opportunity to bid a final farewell to the familiar faces of the last few seasons and watch them evolve before our eyes.

#NFLDraft
As with any live event, Twitter has changed the way we experience the NFL Draft immensely. In the old days, you got Mel Kiper’s opinion and that of whatever drunken mob happened to be nearest to you. Now, you can watch along with the entire world, which is a key element of an event like the draft. Traditionally, the reaction that’s been monitored has been that of the largely New York-based fans in attendance at Radio City Music Hall. Now, as broadcast producers figure out better ways to integrate social media into the mix, we’re going to get the pulse of the entire football universe’s reaction to every single pick. Perhaps more importantly is the ability to get instant news and analysis from people other than Kiper, Todd McShay, or Mike Mayock. There are thousands of football analysts on Twitter, and about two dozen of them are really excellent. If you don’t like ESPN or the NFL Network’s live reactions to picks, there’s really no excuse not to find someone on Twitter as an alternative.

Going Beyond the Mock Draft
A big chunk of the animosity toward the draft centers around the thousands of mock drafts that are held and written before the real deal. For some reason, it offends people that a prognosticator might speculate on what each team is going to do. While mocks can certainly be a useful tool for gauging general consensus and playing out scenarios, a draftnik’s true accuracy is measured by the prospect rankings. It’s not about predicting the sometimes odd behavior of NFL GMs, but about answering the simple question “how good of a pro is this player going to be?” That’s the real debate worth having, rather than getting worked up about someone’s draft day fan fiction.

Unpredictability
The NFL is run with such precision that at times,  league events can feel a bit overly scripted. Not the NFL Draft. It is the one event a year where nobody knows what’s really going to happen next. There are no closed-door meetings, no rehearsals or PR people to package information before it’s released. It’s three days of live television and raw data. There’s no telling when someone’s going to give an awkward hug to the commissioner, shoot an icy stare at their agent, or say something bizarre in their first interview as a pro. And that’s just the players. Never mind the fact that the teams are playing with live ammo. Every second matters, and as we’ve seen, seemingly professional organizations have flat-out missed their turn drafting.

Promise, Hope and Opportunity
A pro sports roster never changes as much as it does on NFL Draft day. Over half a dozen players are added to every team’s mix. A handful of them will change the very landscape of the league within the next nine months. Just look at the class of 2011, and how drastically those rookies impacted the league in what was said to be a lost offseason for first-year players. As college football raises the level of competition to more closely mirror the NFL, players are coming in ready to make an impact. Take a look at what Detroit has done in such a short period. Stack up a couple good drafts in a row and you’re not just talking about being competitive, you’re talking about contending. Every team has a basically equal chance to get significantly better in a short window of time. “New” is always interesting, and there’s never more “new” than on draft day, when everyone’s a potential Hall of Famer.

Dave Gilmore lives in Baltimore and writes “The Win Column” for Baltimore Sports Report and b’s video game blog “Game Cache.” Find him on Twitter @dave_gilmore.

The Dwight Howard saga is done for the remainder of the season.  Correction: Dwight Howard is done for the remainder of the season.  Thanks to machinations both externally and of his own creation, the . . . → Read More: Howard Done for 2012 But Drama Continues to Start for Magic]]>

There is a lot to like about Dwight Howard. His relationship with the Magic is not one of them.

The Dwight Howard saga is done for the remainder of the season.  Correction: Dwight Howard is done for the remainder of the season.  Thanks to machinations both externally and of his own creation, the star center- one of the few true centers with anything resembling a well-rounded game- the headlines aren’t set to quiet down very soon.  While he will be sitting on the sidelines in a suit with his herniated disk, I am sure Coach Stan Van Gundy would much rather he stay home altogether.  It’s a sad end for a year that started with anticipation and ends with just discomfort- and I am not talking about Howard’s back.

If the LeBron James Cleveland experience has taught us anything, it should be that teams are incapable of keeping a star player by prostrating themselves at his feet and trying to build a team to win a championship right now.  All that has created is a scenario where the Magic are on the hook for Gilbert Arenas’ albatross of a contract and have compounded a long-term salary disaster over the past several years.

This is a team that still has Hedo Turkoglu until at least 2013 for $53 million and the enigmatic Jameer Nelson for $35 million.  This team has two pending free agents this coming offseason and less than a million coming off the books with them.  The Magic were not going to compete this season, and it looks like in retrospect the worst thing they could do was have Howard come back for just one year.

Yet on the day of the trade deadline that’s exactly what Howard agreed to do.  One more year with Orlando, opting not to exercise free agency as soon as possible.  What exactly does he expect to change? Despite his alleged demands to replace Stan Van Gundy, there are few coaches who can do more with less than Van Gundy, a coach who has never won fewer than 52 games with the Orland Magic and never finished a season with a losing record in his head coaching career.  In short, despite his bombastic and sometimes controversial nature Orlando will not find a better basketball mind to take over.  Van Gundy is incapable of packing it in however, and has shown surprising thoughtfulness and effort in the eight games since Howard went down.

And let’s say that Howard successfully gets Van Gundy replaced and a more pliable coach comes in.  That coach is stuck with the same team and a player who has learned that if he pouts this team will give him anything he wants.  But this team, as it is currently constructed, cannot give him a ring.  Somehow this team willed its way to the 2009 NBA Finals but was exposed by the veteran Lakers.  So projecting out to the end of 2013, it would look like another ignominious first or second round exit for the Magic with a new and less talented head coach and a star player who has the option to bolt for another team that is more prepared to win now.

It isn’t hard to see how that ends.  If the Magic stick with Van Gundy and let Howard walk after 2013 or trade him along the way they can use those assets to rebuild.  No team wants to let go of one of the top five players in the NBA (top three when Howard is giving his best effort), but if you aren’t going really compete at the upper echelon in the East, what’s the incentive for Howard to stick around past 2013?  If they continue the Dan Gilbert plan of appeasement they wind up at the end of 2013 with a worse coach, without their superstar player and a roster still loaded with bad contracts.  A team in a small market like Orlando cannot afford to be riding against the salary cap, especially in the more punitive new CBA.

I don’t fault Howard for wanting to join another team, but I do fault him for not sending a consistent message to management that they could reliably act on.  No matter what Orlando’s management does they are going to be harassed for it.  Either they are lambasted for letting go of a top player for less than his value (inevitable since no team can put together a package that rivals Howard’s value and remain a contender) or they are lambasted for holding onto Howard and being worse in the end for it.  I hope Orlando will do the smart thing for their future.  For Howard’s sake I hope he really does have a herniated disk, or he is even less mature than he seems.