On the seventh day God created fantasy football. Prepare thyself for thy draft of football. Confide in thou fantasy savior to guide thee to wealth and success. For I share my knowledge with all my children.
My rankings by position will begin on Monday August 27th. Each day I will cover a different position starting with QB.
In my last article we looked at first round selections. Let’s continue down the default rankings and take a look at some names that pop out.
Cam Newton and Matthew Stafford. They are the only two QB’s that are typically being selected in the first 3 rounds aside from the big 3. What makes these two guys more special than the rest? Why do they trail the big 3? Here is your answer. Their ceilings are higher than the guys behind them, but they haven’t been consistent enough to enter big 3 territory. Your buying them at a lower price than you are Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, and Tom Brady only because they haven’t put up the big numbers more than one time.
So what if they do put up those big numbers again? Then you potentially have a 1st round caliber QB at a cheaper cost. Is the difference of one round really worth taking that risk though? Why not just target one of the big three if you really want to buy a QB that high? Newton and Stafford should be selected if they come to you and they are the best available players to pick up. Which means you should not take them over the big 3.
You also shouldn’t plan to take them over other 1st rounders just because you missed one of the big 3. If it’s your pick, the big 3 are gone, and all the first rounders are gone, you might as well take these guys. For this to happen you probably need to have a mid round pick and would have selected a RB or WR in round 1. There are plenty of good QB values available later. We will get into that the week of August 27th when I release my rankings.
Darren McFadden, Adrian Peterson, Matt Forte, Marshawn Lynch, DeMarco Murray, Jamaal Charles.
These will all be #1 RB’s for those of you who select something other than a RB in the 1st round. There sure is a lot of injury history here. Can you really trust any of them? Not really. But your selecting their upside.
In order to have a winning season you have to have guys with high upsides, and then those upsides have to be met. If you decide to wait it out with RB’s and take safer mediocre guys, your losing that upside. The peak of your RB corp wont be as high as the peak of teams with guys like these. Which means you really have to hope that these guys do fail, or your already at a disadvantage. I’m a big believer that guys with high 1st round ceilings find a way to bounce back. Which means Peterson and Charles are the best bets of this group.
However, McFadden has always had the potential to be a high 1st round guy. He just hasn’t hasn’t reached that potential yet. Then there is Marshawn Lynch? Really? One of these guys seriously don’t fit in this group. And it’s Lynch. Why is he being drafted this high? Don’t get it.
Roddy White, Victor Cruz, Brandon Marshall, Andre Johnson, Greg Jennings, AJ Green, Mike Wallace.
It’s crazy how the top WR list changes so quickly each year. There are your main stays that you see here every year, such as White, Marshall, Johnson, and Jennings. And then you get the new emergence’s such as as Cruz, Green, and Wallace.
Here is the question you must ask yourself about the new guys. Is the risk of taking them worth passing on the guys that have consistently been in this draft spot for years? Here is the difference between WR and other positions.
As I just explained above, QB’s that are less proven than other QB’s are drafted later. At WR the guys that are less proven than other WR’s are still drafted at the same time. So do you think Cruz and Green will be able to repeat their numbers and be as good as White and Johnson are every year? If you do, you should take them. You’ll know what I think when I release my rankings.
Greg Jennings/Jordy Nelson, Victor Cruz/Hakeem Nicks, Roddy White/Julio Jones, Dez Bryant/Miles Austin, Jeremy Maclin/DeSean Jackson.
It’s impossible to know how the impact of one stud receiver will impact the other. Impossible. This is what makes WR so difficult. It’s deep, but it’s also difficult.
In some of these cases it’s difficult to even know which guy will be better than the other one. I do know however that I am highly interested in all of the QB’s that have these combos, and not too interested in the RB’s that accompany them (besides McCoy.) I’d be happy owning almost all of these guys despite their competition.
Always consider which of the two has the higher ceiling. It doesn’t always tell you who will have the better season, but you need to be aware of it. Arguably the guys with the higher ceiling are Jennings, Nicks, Jones, Bryant, and Maclin. But what does it tell you about someone like Victor Cruz if he is ranked ahead of the guy with a higher ceiling than him? These are the situations that help The Fantasy God predict accurate seasons.
There are so many names that pop out at me as amazing values. I can’t wait to share them all with you in my rankings, starting next week.
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