“Where were you when we needed ya”?
Due to Orioles postseason fever, your fearless forecaster left all five of you high and dry with selections last week. For that, I’m sorry.
But now that the BSR medical staff has found the right meds for this epidemic, I’m ready to get back in the selection mix.
Here is the updated tote board through 5 weeks:
- Survivor: 10-2, 83%
- ATS: 6-5-1, 55%
Week 6 Survivor Selections
Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5) – If you like the bounce back theory, then this is your game. There are no double digit favorites to lean on this week. And since most of the good teams are on the road, I’m using the Bengals as my top survivor selection. Carolina stinks on the road and even though they beat a defensively challenged Bears team at home last week, I think the Bengals win by at least 10 points at home (where they have been real good of late). Dalton home numbers are Peyton lite. Well, at least during the regular season game.
Nuggets: Bengals are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points.
Seattle Seahawks (-8.5) – The defending champs return home after coasting to a MNF victory in Landover. Waiting for them is a surprising 4-1 Dallas Cowboys team. Not only that, but the ‘Boys are 2-0 away from Jerry’s World. That’s nice. But this one sets up for a come back to earth type loss for the ‘Boys. Seattle never loses at home (especially outside the NFC West) and with the Cowboys being relevant for once they won’t get overlooked by Carroll and company.
Nuggets: Seahawks never lose at home. No nugget needed.
Arizona Cardinals (-4) – This number is interesting. The Washington football team is a mess. The Cards finally lost their first game last week in Denver. What gives, sharps? My guess is they don’t believe in the Cards and their shaky QB situation. They also must think that the “good” Kirk Cousins will post in Tempe this Sunday. I don’t. The Cards could have Tim Tebow under center and still drop over 400 yards on the ‘Skins defense that hasn’t stopped anyone. With a tough slate this week, the Cards might be your best shot. And their home record in the desert vs. East coast teams is 74% ATS.
Nuggets: Cards are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a loss. Cards are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
Week 6 ATS Selections
Cleveland Browns (-2) – Count me in on the Browns ATS wagon. All these dudes have done is cash or at least push (2-0-2 ATS). Coming off the best road comeback ever last week (and a SU cover), it’s time to pay back their AFC North rivals to the East from week 1. The Steelers have struggled since pounding the Panthers three weeks ago. They lost two week ago at home (one of our survivor selections) to Tampa and last week struggled mightily at Jacksonville. The Browns are catching some momentum and I think the Steelers might just get blown out real good in this spot. Love me some Terrace West too. #TigerPride.
Falcons/Bears (Over 52.5) – Shocker, I like the biggest total on the board. Sue me. But look closer and you will see why I think this one fly’s over the posted total mid 3rd quarter. The Bears are 4-1 in hitting overs this year, while the Falcons are 3-2. That’s a combined 7-3 if my trusty Towson Math is on point. Add in that this one will take place indoors and that there could potential be 4 Pro Bowl WR’s on the field and you can now see why I like the “up”. Matty Ice and Jay Culter won’t be turning and handing it off too many times in this shootout.
Nuggets: Over is 6-0 in Bears last 6 vs. NFC. Over is 4-0 in Falcons last 4 home games vs. teams with losing records.
St. Louis Rams (+3.5) – MNF home dog alert! One of my favorite low hanging fruit is a home dog. And if you can get this precious fruit on a national stage like MNF, then all the better. The Niners haven’t exactly been lighting the league on fire this year, but they have won two in a row. Both home wins. They were also ATS winners in those contests as well. Problem is they are quite a different breed of team on the road. The Rams were supposed to be at least good defensively this year, but the last two weeks they have given up 34 points in each of their last two losses. But something tells me Jeff Fisher and company comes out with some passion in front of the home fans and could pull the SU win. But for our purposes, take the points.
Nuggets: Home team is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings. The Rams are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
“Got to be better on the road”
That’s what has to be going over and over in John Harbaugh’s head this week. How can we be so good at home and struggle some much on the road? Well John, you should ask your WR core outside of Steve Smith, Sr.
Last week the Colts did everything possible to give the game to the Ravens. Turnovers, penatlies among other botches put the Ravens in position to steal one like they did in Cleveland three weeks ago. But for some reason, Joe Flacco‘s perfectly thrown balls weren’t caught and the defense couldn’t get enough pressure on Andrew Luck in the 7 pt loss.
This week they travel to Tampa to take on a streaky Bucs team. After starting the season 0-3 the Bucs went to Pittsburgh and won SU and took the Saints to OT last week only to lose. Maybe that’s why the sharps in vegas have made the Ravens only a 3.5 favorite. Maybe it’s because the Ravens are under .500 on the road under coach Harbaugh? Whatever the reason, the Ravens have to get this one as the schedule only gets tougher here on out.
And that’s what I think they will do. The Bucs aren’t disciplined under new coach Lovie Smith as they committed 15 penalties (113 yards). They also can’t run the ball (only 66 yards on 21 carries last week). So that means if Terrell Suggs and Elvis Dumervill would like to show up, this might be a good spot.
The secondary will be tested as the Bucs do posses big WR’s (Vincent Jackson).Lardarius Webb returned last week, but still didn’t look right. But if the guys up front get some pressure and rookie stud LB C.J. Mosley continues to make plays, the Ravens should be able to win this one without any issues. Famous last words? I think not.