If you listened to your boy and took those choking Atlanta Falcons this past week as your survivor selection, let me be the first to apologize. Though I’m not exactly sure why I’m the one doing the I’m sorry tour, since I wasn’t the one who lost as a 10 point favorite at home to a rookie QB and a head coach who has a foot fetish. But I’ve got large shoulders for a reason.
If you did avoid taking Matty dumpster fire and the Falcons and moved along with either St. Louis, Denver, etc., congrats. This week might be considered your survivor “bye” week as the Broncos are the biggest favorite in NFL history over the Jags of Jacksonville at Mile High.
Week 6: Survivor Selections
1. Denver Broncos – No brainier here. The Broncos dropped 51 on a game Dallas squad last week on the road. Now they return to the friendly confines of Mile High and I anticipate seeing backup QB Brock Osweiler handing off to some 5th string Bronco RB early in the 4th quarter as Manning and company take a well deserved break. The line in this “game” opened at 27.5 and already has been moved to 28.5. It’s the highest spread in NFL history by almost a TD.
Nugget: The Broncos are the best NFL team on the planet (right now) and the Jags probably would be pushed by Clemson.
2. Seattle Seahawks – If you have used Denver or just want to be “cute” then taking the Seahawks is a solid 2nd choice. Especially since the ‘Hawks are coming off a loss (at Indy) and are the best home team in the NFL. Add in that the Titans are coming 3500 miles west without their starting QB and you can see why using the Seahawks is a logical choice as well.
Nugget: Seahawks are 5-0 in their last 5 after losing on the road.
3. Houston Texans – If you have used both Denver and Seattle, then this could be a tricky week for you. I also like San Fransisco hosting Arizona, but I do try and avoid in-division games if possible. So with that being said, I like the Texans at home to beat a mediocre at best St. Louis Rams team. The Rams took care of business last week at home (my survivor selection) against the aforementioned Jags. And although Matt Schaub throws pick 6’s as frequently as Peyton Manning throws TD’s, I feel the Texans defense should win this one on their own.
Nugget: Texans defense is ranked #1 overall, while the Rams offense if ranked 29th out of 32 teams.
NFL Selections
NY Jets (-2) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers – I can’t believe I’m writing/saying this, but the Jets might be better than I thought. And it’s not just their impressive straight up win last Monday Night as a 10 pt dog, but how they did it. Sexy Rexy has this defense playing as good as anyone up front. Add in the Steelers poor-ass offensive line in front of Big Ben and I can see the J.E.T>S, Jets, Jets, Jets rolling in this one. The line opened with the Jets are a 2 pt dog, but since has swung 4 points the other way. Get on this one early as the “sharks” are shoving their chips in on Gino Smith.
Nugget: Jets are 6-1 ATS in last 7 in October games. The home team in this series is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings overall.
Arizona Cardinals (+11) at San Fransisco 49ers – Call it a hunch like my Dallas vibe last week. Of course I’ve seen the Niners defense completely dominated their last two opponents (Rams, Texans). But something tells me Carson Palmer and the Cards will hang around just long enough to at least cover that double digit number. Because if you haven’t been watching the Cards, they are 3-2 overall and 4-1 ATS so far this season. Add in the public money flowing in on the Niners at 65% clip so far and you can see why I’ll wait till game time to play this one.
Nugget: Arizona is 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings in this series.
Tampa Bay Bucs/Philadelphia Eagles over 46.5 – The Eagles will be without the services of dog lover Micheal Vick this week in Tampa. Josh Freeman is now a Viking. So taking an over with Nick Foles and rookie Mike Glennon respectively under center seems at bit odd, right? Yup. But after crunching the numbers I feel this is a good spot and here’s why. The Eagles (with Foles) dropped 36 on the Giants last weekend on the road, while giving up 21 to an inept Giants offense in the process. The Bucs, on the other hand, had a interesting bye week cutting their QB Josh Freeman while their head coach Greg Schiano played Mafia Boss. That being said, the Eagles give up yards/points like Jim Johnson gives up leads in the ninth (too soon?). This is the first total for the Eagles under 50, so the value is there for the taking.
Nugget: The Over is 4-0 in the last 4 Eagles road games.
Bonus game: Detroit -2.5
Ravens Angle
I’m all over this team. A sparkling 3-0 in picking them so far this season and this week I again have an angle. Except in this one I’m not actually taking a side as the Ravens are a 3-point dog at home for the second time this season (Houston). Remember purple cameo wearing fools, the Ravens have the 2nd best home-winning % in the NFL (Seattle).
The Packers just dominated the Lions last week at home, but have lost on the road to the likes of the Niners and Bengals. If I had to play the game I would lean towards taking the Ravens and the FG, but what really intrigues this degen is the total posted at 48.5. No Clay Matthews to pressure Joe Flacco will help as well as newly traded for Eugene Monroe taking over for Love-Boat McKinnie at LT. Add in the Ravens mediocre secondary for Aaron Rodgers and his sick weapons, and you can see why I think the scoreboard will be flipping like a gymnast come 1pm Sunday. Ravens 35-31.
