“Not our best week”.
But with the good comes the bad in this industry. Depending on how your survivor rules are, you are either still alive or cooked based on the wacky tie in the Bengals/Panthers game last week. Once again as my Bengals “insider” Jimma Silvestri says “you can never trust the Bungals Special Teams”.
But it wasn’t only Mike Nugget who was making my Sunday Un-Funday. The defending SB Champs lost at home to the freaking Dallas Cowboys. Really? That’s why they play the games, I guess.
Arizona was our only out right winner as they beat the Washington football team real good.
ATS side was also a mixed bag of hot garbage. If it wasn’t for my new favorite ATS team, the Browns, smashing the Steelers it could’ve been a complete washout.
That’s because the Falcons (more on them later) forgot how to move the ball on offense, while the Rams came from ahead (up 14-0 early) not only to lose, but also not cover the 3.5. So with that, here are the not so lovely totals up to date.
- Survivor: 11-4, 73%
- ATS: 7-7-1, 50%
Week 7 Survivor Selections
New England Patriots (-9.5) – Thursday night football has been terrible. But that doesn’t mean you can’t benefit from CBS/NFL Network inferior product. The demise of Tom Brady was highly irrational weeks ago as he has turned it around with two straight vintage type Brady games. This week he gets to maybe hammer the final nail into that blow-hart Rex Ryan’s coffin (not literally, of course). The Jets stink. Pats should roll.
Seattle Seahawks (-7) – That sound you keep hearing is me cursing under my breath about this team. Survivor bitterness can be such an ugly look. But since one of my favorite trends are bounce back games for good teams, I will happily select the ‘Hawks in this spot if available. Especially if you have already used the Pats OR you just don’t like playing divisional matchups. The Rams showed who we all thought they were in the 2nd half vs. the Niners on MNF last week, so I expect an angry Pete Carroll team to roll them real good too.
Denver Broncos (-6.5) – Now that the Broncos were crowned “America’s Team” this past week, it’s time to show up on the National Stage. Sunday Night football returns to the City of Weed as the Jim Harbaugh brings his awful facial expressions and football team to town. Peyton and crew were busy dropping TD bombs on the pathetic Jets last week in Jersey, while the Niners took care of business in St. Louis. Short week for the Niners and the fact that there’s not a ton of home favorites on the board leads me here with the Donkeys.
Week 7 ATS Selections
New York Giants (+6.5) – This is what I like to call a “let down spot”. The Cowboys are the toast of the NFL this week as they went to Seattle and beat the ‘Hawks in their joint where they never lose. Conversely, the Giants were skull-dragged around the Link in Philly last Sunday night to the tune of 27-zip. Plus, they lost one of their only weapons on offense (Victor Cruz) to a devastating knee injury. So why are the Cowboys only a TD favorite you might ask? Me too. This is where the let down theory creeps up on teams that don’t have experience with success. Look for this one to be tight late and I wouldn’t even be surprised with at Giants as a out right winner. But take the points.
Nuggets: Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Dallas.
Seattle Seahawks (-7) – Burn me once, we are good. Twice and we will have problems. So this is that cheerleader Pete Carroll’s chance to win me back this week and what a perfect spot to do it. The Rams looked like a pee wee team in the second half last Monday night as Austin Davis was peeing down his leg in the pocket. If the Niners D, which hasn’t been that stellar so far this year, can do that to the Rams what will an angry ‘Hawks D do? I usually stay clear of TD+ road favorites like I do Ebola, but we you see a winner you grab that winner.
Nuggets: Rams are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. NFC West.
San Diego Chargers/Kansas City Chiefs (Over 45) – In a day in age that over/unders are usually in the 47-50 point range, this one stands like Katy Perry at a computer lab. The Bolts have been rolling offensively as their trigger man Phillip Rivers could arguably be the NFL mid season MVP. He has put up three straight 30+ point performances (all W’s) and has 15 TD’s with only 2 INTs with a passer rating of 120.0 in a record five straight games. The Chiefs can also score as they showed a couple Monday night’s ago dropping 41 on the Pats. This series has been a high scoring one of late (see nuggets below) and I don’t see that changing this week.
Nuggets: Over is 4-1 in Chiefs last 5 vs. AFC West. Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
The Adam Jones of the Ravens is Joe Flacco. Meaning, as he goes his team goes. So last week he was running hot as ever dropping 5 TD’s in a basically the 1st quarter on the Bucs en route to a 48-17 curb stomping at the Big Pirate Ship. This week Joe and Co. return to the Big Crab Cake and take on his fellow ’08 draft partner, Matt Ryan.
Of course, we all the know these two will be linked together forever as they were both selected by the respective teams in the 1st round. And yes we all know the Flacco, not Ryan, has a SB ring and much more success in the postseason where it really matters. But all I need to concentrate on is this game between two teams going in opposite directions.
The Falcons offensive line stinks. Without their top pick and left tackle Jake Matthews, Ryan has been under seiged the past couple weeks. Three straight losses of 10+ points has head coach Mike Smith seat as warm as ever. And coming to one of the toughest places to play on the road as a bad road team isn’t going to make that seat any cooler.
The defense even provided some pressure last week and the secondary finally got off the INT shined as Jimmy Smith got one. I expect Ryan to be running for his life while the Ravens 12th men make it difficult for him to hear as well. The TD favorite bit seems a bit high for me, but if it’s based on past performances its not high enough.