“Nothing like a good bounce back week”.
That’s right. Your fearless forecaster got back on the winning track with a 2-1 ATS week and a 2-1 in survivor selections. Only the Cowboys surprising loss to the Skins on MNF stopped us from a perfect survivor week. Here are the updated totals.
- Survivor: 15-6, 71%
- ATS: 9-11-1, 45%
So enough self-congratulatory type rhetoric, it’s time to give out some nuggets that hopefully will make your Halloween weekend even more enjoyable.
Week 9 Survivor Selections
Kansas City Chiefs (-10) – My boy and co host on the wildly popular BSR podcast Pat Guthrie’s NY Jets are a full-blown dumpster fire. Last week they were curb stomped by the Bills in their own building. The Geno Smith experience is over. The Michael Vick one could be next as the Chiefs are almost unbeatable at Arrowhead. They trashed the Rams last week and I expect the same type result here.
San Francisco 49ers (-10) – Niners are coming off a needed bye week and get the Rams at home this week. Perfect recipe for that wack-job Jim Harbaugh to get his team back on track and maybe to keep his job in the City by the Bay. Historically the Rams have played the Niners tough, but based on my “desperate team” theory, the Niners should roll in this one.
Seattle Seahawks (-15) – If you haven’t used the defending champs yet this year, here is your best spot. The Raiders are painfully awful and although I expect them to beat someone this year, that spot isn’t here. The ‘Hawks have as many issues off the field as Jennifer Aniston has had boyfriends. But that won’t matter this week as they will probably destroy the Silver and Black real good.
Week 9 ATS Selections
Cleveland Browns (-6.5) – Like a new hot chick in class, the Browns are easy on the ATS eyes. Their sparkling 4-1-2 ATS record is almost as sexy to me as Demi Moore was in movie “Striptease”. On the other side of the field you have a Tampa Bay Bucs squad that looks more like Melissa McCarthy (she is hilarious) this year. Losers of 3 straight (including last week as a selection) and 6 of their last 7, the Bucs are God awful. This number of 6.5 is sometimes looked as a trap in the industry as the sharps in Vegas are begging you to take the Browns. Call me a sucker then.
Nuggets: Browns are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 home games.
New England Patriots (+3.5) – So let me get this straight. Tom Brady and the Pats have won 4 straight games (3 at home) by a composite score of 158-87 since losing to the Chiefs over a month ago and they are catching points? I know, Peyton Manning is on a mission and the Broncos are steam rolling to another AFC Championship game. I get it. But last time I checked, this series has been owned by Brady and the Pats over the years and I don’t expect that to change this week. Gronk back in the lineup has completely changed the Pats offense and Brady’s performances of late shows that. Give me the points and the home team in this one.
Nuggets: The home team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings. Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings in New England.
Philadelphia Eagles/Houston Texans (Over 48.5) – This could be a very interesting matchup. The Eagles fast break offense vs. the Texans outstanding front 7. And how will the Eagles contain RB Arian Foster could be another huge factor in deciding this one. But either way, I expect there to be a ton of scoring as both teams can move the ball. Nick Foles has been average so far this year throwing for a ton of yards, but making costly mistakes in the RedZone that have cost his team. Only Blake Bortles and Geno Smith have more INT’s than Foles. And turnovers are huge in hitting an over play. I expect both Shady McCoy and Foster to have big days in the running and passing game and I wouldn’t be shocked if Texans signal caller Ryan Fitzpatrick throws for over 300 yards with a couple TDs.
Nuggets: The “Over” is 8-1 in Texans last 9 games following a ATS win. The “Over” is 4-0 in Eagles last 4 games after accumulating more than 350 yards in their previous game.
Baltimore Ravens Angle
- Ravens Record SU: 7-1, 86%
That’s right, it’s Halloween weekend and the Ravens head to that scary place known as Pittsburgh. Not so much Heinz Field or even the Steelers players themselves, but mostly the PennsyTucky fan base that “roots” for their team.
Back in week 2, the Ravens man-handled the Steelers at the Big Crab Cake to the tune of 26-6. Complete beat down on both sides of the ball that Thursday night.
Fast forward a couple of months and this Steeler team is playing much better than the one that was waxed in Week 2. They have won 2 straight (at home) over the Texans and last week Colts. And in the process, Big Ben has done his best Peyton Manning impression through the air. He dropped 500+ yards and 6 freaking TD’s on the Colts last week, while the defense made it stand up.
The Ravens, on the other hand, were busy committing mistakes in Cincinnati en route to a tough 27-24 loss. QB Joe Flacco was down right average in that one only throwing for 195 yards and had two INT’s in the loss. He must bounce back and play much better if the Ravens don’t want to lose their AFC North lead.
And historically, Flacco has played very well vs. the Steelers and I don’t anticipate that changing much in this Sunday Night prime time matchup. The Ravens are also real good under coach Harbaugh bouncing back after losses.
I expect this one to be a high scoring affair based on the recent trends in the series.
- The “Over” is 10-4-1 in the last 15 meetings in Pittsburgh.
- The “Over” is 4-0 in Steelers last 4 home games.
- The “Over” is 4-0 in Ravens last 4 games on grass
- The “Over” is 6-1 in Ravens last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record
I expect the Ravens banged up secondary will be tested early and often by Big Ben and the Steelers offense. But I also expect Flacco to throw for a couple TD’s and RB Justin Forsett to gain big chunks of yards in the running game. This one isn’t going to be your old defensive battle like prior Ravens/Steeler games, at least in my opinion.
In the end, I see the Ravens making a couple more plays on offense and capitalizing on some Steeler turnovers en route to a tough fought AFC North win.