Over on FanGraphs.com, Dave Cameron meticulously penned a comprehensive piece on the Baltimore Orioles lack of quality depth in roster spots 6-30. Cameron illustrated the O’s “Stars and Scrubs” model in full detail explaining that the Birds need about +20 WAR from 20 non-star players on their roster.
The entire article is worth reading if you’re looking for something that’ll depress you more than these sub-zero temperatures created by the Artic blast here in Charm City, but one particular takeaway from his commentary was the early projection for the 2014 MLB season.
But right now, they don’t project as a particularly good team. Our forecasted standings based on the Steamer data (ZIPS will be included once all the team projections are finished) have the Orioles as a 78 win team, 10 wins behind the Red Sox and in last place in the AL East. Steamer thinks the Orioles are approximately as good as the Mets.
According to Cameron, the Orioles are 3-4 quality everyday players away from being one of the best clubs in the American League. The problem is, adding 3-4 quality everyday players isn’t easy.
A projection is nothing more than an educated guess — especially in baseball. But the Orioles have to fill a few needs before anyone would legitimately consider them a postseason contender.
Image Credit: Keith Allison