Baltimore’s 12-3 loss against in Texas on Wednesday left the Birds with a 3-3 road trip against the Rangers and Tigers, but it also gave fuel to the fire for the folks that continue to dwell on Orioles run differential this season.
A 12-3 loss isn’t just a 12-3 loss anymore, it’s -9 in the Orioles already negative run differential. The O’s have now allowed 54 more runs this season than they have scored this season, but a further look into this number will show that it’s not such a bizarre statistic given their 67-57 record.
In seven games against the Rangers this season, Baltimore has been outscored 24-56 which gives them a -32 differential. Over nine games against the Angels, the Orioles have been outscored 23-54 (-31 RD). Combined, the Birds are 4-12 against Texas and LA with a -63 run differential in those games.
Against their other 16 opponents, the Orioles actually have a positive run differential (+9) outscoring them 471-462. Baltimore only has a negative run differential against two teams that they have a winning record against this season, Toronto (5-4, -5 RD) and Minnesota (5-2, -2 RD).
They have a losing record and positive run differential against only one team, the New York Yankees (5-6, -1 RD).
It’s not nearly as bad as you think if you dive into the numbers. Yes, the Orioles have been dramatically outscored this year despite being 10 games above .500. But they’re being blown out by teams that have kept them to just 4 wins in 16 games.
Zach Wilt is the Founding Editor of BaltimoreSportsReport.com and Host of the BSR Podcast. You can follow him on Twitter @zamwi or send him an email: firstname.lastname@example.org.
Everybody thinks they’re Billy Beane now, especially since the movie. Here’s the bottom line —Winning and losing. The rest is just stuff to fill up Sports Center and provide fodder.
Good points Zach. We also had trouncing by Minnesota that could through a few runs in the negative, but all-in-all, who cares. What i see is team fighting and beating other teams they should beat. They have a winning record against the AL East and a winning record against teams over .500. In years past, they’ve been reversed. What matters is getting to the postseason and at that point, all these numbers just go away and everyone starts fresh.
It doesn’t matter who the games were against. The fact remains that Baltimore has been very lucky and doesn’t deserve to be where they are. They’ve lost in blowouts while barely winning. That’s not a good thing.
Yes, the O’s have been blown out and that can affect run differential in such a way that doesn’t accurately reflect how good they are. But what about their unusually impressive record in one-run games? In non-one-run-games, the O’s are exactly a .500 team. There is some pretty good evidence that we should discount one-run games when trying to get at a team’s true talent level.
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