It would be disingenuous for any Ravens fan to claim to be disappointed by Joe Flacco’s career in Baltimore thus far. Each season Flacco has improved his yards per attempt, touchdown rate, and interception rate. Furthermore advanced algorithms, such as those developed by Football Outsiders, offer up the following list of similar quarterbacks for Flacco’s 2008-2010 career span: Tom Brady (2001-2003), Brett Farve (1992-1994) and Jim Kelly (1986-88).
In 2010 a large part of Flacco’s success was his ability on deep passing plays. Flacco didn’t perform better as each pass that traveled farther but when he threw really deep (25 yards or more) the Ravens were at their best. According to Football Outsiders if we take out passes thrown away on purpose, the Ravens averaged 9.8 yards on 16 to 25 yards passes in the air, which is below the NFL average of 11.2. However, when Flacco threw passes 25 yards or longer the Ravens were at their best. The Ravens threw 40 passes longer than 25 yards, and gained an average of 16.9 yards on these plays, compared to the NFL average of 13.4 yards.
Given these statistics the solution to improve the passing game seems straight forward: throw more passes of 25 yards or more and less passes of 16 to 25 yards. Unfortunately, implementing that solution in 2010 was problematic. Last year, the Ravens had three receivers (Anquan Boldin, Derrick Mason, and T.J. Houshmandzadeh) who had never excelled in their career at vertically stretching the field. Making matters worse was the fact that each of these possession receivers was in their thirties – far past their prime downfield-speed age. Between elderly possession receivers running deep routes and a still developing quarterback, Flacco ended up holding the ball too long. In his study of timing of every sack in the NFL in 2010, JJ Cooper found that Flacco’s 25 sacks of 3.1 seconds or more were five more than anyone else in the league. Cooper chose a cutoff of 3.1 seconds because the median sack time in the NFL in 2009 and 2010 was 2.7 seconds, making three seconds the point where a quarterback should generally know that he has to get rid of the ball. Qualitative evidence from the Game Charts at Football Outsiders supports Cooper’s conclusion that Flacco was the king of holding the ball in 2010. These comments included:
- [Flacco] gets out to the sidelines, then inexplicably decides not to throw it away despite the defender coming right into his face.
- Flacco rolls when no one’s open, then just runs out of bounds instead of throwing it away.
- Flacco will pump fake in the face of pressure without actually getting rid of the ball, or he’ll start to scramble when there’s no room to run.
Ay, there’s the rub. The Ravens knew that they were successful when throwing the ball 25 yards or more, however, when they ran those plays Flacco often held onto the ball. Presumably, he chose to do so because the receivers weren’t open. However, its important to note that we haven’t presented any data here that supports this covered receivers theory. It seems like a rational conclusion from the data we have but it could just be a rationalization of one of Flacco’s flaws.
But if we accept the covered receiver theory then there are reasons to be optimistic about the passing game in 2011. The Ravens replaced the veteran possession receivers with players known for running deeper routes. Note: The new receiving options are presented in depth by BSR’s own Edgar Walker here. Former Terrapin Torrey Smith is a raw receiving talent but posses elite straight-line speed. Tight end Todd Heap will be replaced by Ed Dickson and Dennis Pitta who block less but offer more frequent receiving options than Heap. However, the best fit for a deep passing offense is Lee Evans who Ravens acquired from Buffalo for a fourth-round pick. According to Football Outsiders in 2010, 70% of passes to Evans went at least 15 yards in the air and a third of those went further than 25 yards. Given the health of Evans and some further development of Dickson, Pitta and Smith this season will be an excellent test for the covered receivers theory. If Flacco is unable to get rid of the ball with these legitimate deep receiving options then he will remain an above average and not take the next step to becoming the top five quarterback he purports to be.
Great article. I think Flacco was right. Remember the Cinci games last year – even Masion couldn’t get open against their defense. I believe Flacco pulls it all together this year, and along with the defense we will destroy teams, including Pittsburgh. Laugh all you want, but this is the first time in years we have the potential to be a balanced, well-oiled machine that marches down the field and scores points each possession. The running game is going to sing, which will open up a devastating passing attack.
We have seen this again and again. The Bengals and the Steelers know it. Derrick Mason blew up during the infamous sideline confrontation because of it. Flacco is a work in progress. Let’s hope he gets better.
Here’s my question. Flacco frequently gets to the line with 10 seconds or less left on the play clock. As a result he doesn’t appear to have time to do presnap reads, check hots, allow players to shift, see Polamalu creeping up to the line, etc. I assumed the coaches were taking too long to get the plays in. Then I noticed that Tyrod Taylor gets the team lined up much quicker. Why does it take Flacco so much longer? It seems he would benefit from having more time at the line to read the defense or audible the play/ protection.
Thanks for the feedback RiseNConquer. You pose an interesting question. I’ll put it the queue for future By the Numbers investigation. As always By the Numbers is soliciting directions for future inquiry. If anyone has anything they are curious about please let me know.
Well, one thing is for certain; the Ravens staff is making moves they believe will sure up the running game. Leach… please, the best fullback in football. The moves on the O-line. Last year, Rice was making things happen with second efforts, because the holes just weren’t there. I see all that changing. Slice/dice,pound. How beautiful was the play-action pass in the 1st quarter of KC, with Flacco rolling out to the right? “Missed it by that much” as Get Smart used to say. Running game – play action, Pitta crosses, Bolton out pattern, Lee Evans DEEP! TD! Forgetabout-it!
Remember when Spy (Jim from Dundalk) wasn’t posting a week ago until he got cut from his HS football team? Now he’s not posting because classes started. We’ll miss you, Spy (Jim)!
I’ll see you at recess……..
Hey Hermster…
Who in the Hell is “Bolton”?
Spy/Jim from Dundalk will be missed…
Spy’s Summer days went like this…
9am – Wake up
9:30am – Comment on BSR
10am – Eat breakfast that Mom made him
10:30am – Catch bus for Mickey D’s job
11:30am – Feed Big Mac’s and fries to hungry people
1pm – Sweep dining area floor
2pm – Fill the condiment containers
3pm – Catch bus for home
4pm – Eat Mom’s delicious tuna casserole
4:30pm – Skateboard with his “peeps”
7pm – Get shower
8pm – Watch “Jersey Shore”
9pm – Mom says “lights out”, goes to bed
Now since School has started
6am – Gets up
6:30am – Eats Moms breakfast of a toasted Poptart
7am – Catches School bus
7:30 – Class starts
3:15pm – Catches School bus home
4pm – Eats Moms Green bean Casserole
4:30pm – Does math homework
5:30pm – Plays “Yu-gi-oh” with his homies
7pm – Get shower
8pm – Watch “Nick-at-Night”
9pm – Mom says “lights out”, goes to bed
You must lead an exciting life,,,,,,,,,I’m sure this schedule is better than your pitiful life,,,,,,,,,,you left out every afternoon when I beat your but on the playground……..
Ross, I hope we can expect some more statistical analysis of the Ravens this season.
Thanks!
I plan on it. I’ll be learning with the readership about some of the advanced metrics they use which should make it enjoyable, embarrassing and educational.
Ravens2488, I hope we can expect some more statistical analysis of Spy’s schedule this season.
Thanks!
I second this sentiment strongly!
Great read Ross. It’s nice to see some hard evidence to a point made about Flacco. All too often people throw out blanket statements on talk radio shows but can’t back them up. I’m looking forward to reading more about statistical analysis of football.
mister raven chow have more on spry summer day. since spry no aporogize to chow yet chow rip spry knew one. when spry aporogize then chow team up with spry.
spry day
5:00 in afternoon-spry pray tummy stick with chow
9:00 at night-spry feed hamster
9:05 at night-spry put crothes out for mommy to see
9:10 at night-spry cudder with teddy Ruckspin
6:00 in morning-spry mommy come in say “wake up ritter boy time to get sreepies out eyes”
7:00 in morning at schoor-spry get beat up by burry want spry runch money
ha eat at spry. Weep on kreenex and put shoe on caterpirrer
you aporogise spry and chow stop tagging you with rench
apologize for what ?
Glad to see everyone misses me,,,,mission accomplished,,,,,,,,,Bye MR. Flannigan , we will miss you too…………..
mister raven right about spry schedure. see spry write between 930 and 1000. spry work now firring catsup container.
spry you owe chow aporogy for terring chow do harry karry. chow no think nice. chow have spry back and help spry against other crowns. Maybe spry need go back see how he down chow. Chow is “women pet and men regret”. chow called “universar heartthrob” round apartment comprex. chow wine and diner the radies. spry you aporogize chow and chow make spry protegie, teach spry ropes when going out women. Chow teach spry about sports and how talk to mister mgw mister raven mister anvir mister sader mister carr mister zach on they high rever cause they no about sports rike chow do.
come on every body tark spry into retting chow show him rope on sports. chow do sport teach to spry free.
@ Chow,,,,,,if that upset you , I’m sorry……….everything I post here is meant to be good clean fun , I may have missed the point here , again , sorry man,,,,,,,,,,,
p.s. I don’t do tummy sticks……see Carl for that…
Shumyungi,
Not sure I totally understand, but I’m with you!
Spy good man , why agree with something you know nothing about , your credibility , if you had any , is shot……….
back off jim from dumdark. spry say sorry chow. spry do do tummy stick chow.
chow see spry write between 930 and 1000
mister mgw thank you. mister mgw and chow rock the britches. jim from dumdark you no run mouth. mister spry mister mg and chow rip you knew one.
chow predict steerers beat raven in game 1. ravens no rooking good. chow no fan of harball.
I agree , Harbaugh is in way over his head,,,,,don’t think he can coach’em up……….