By Ross Gore, on May 14th, 2012 
What’s up with Jake Arrieta? He began the year with improved velocity and through May 2nd he had two outings where he gave up 0 runs and only one disastrous outing (a 4 inning, 5 run outing in LA against the Angels). However, since May 2nd Arrieta appears to have turned into a pumpkin. On May 8th against the Rangers Arrieta gave up 6 runs in 6 and 1/3 innings and yesterday as the O’s appeared poised for a sweep of a hobbled Tampa Bay team, Arrieta was chased in 3 and 2/3 innings after giving up 7 earned runs.
It’s undebatable, right? Arrieta was good, then something happened and now he isn’t good anymore. However, Arrieta’s skills (strikeout rate and walk rate) in his two bad starts appear strong. The factors that are causing Arrieta to look inept (high batting average on balls in play, a high home run to fly ball rate and a low strand rate) are typically considered “random” or “luck-based”. Here we’ll look at Arrieta’s skills (strikeout rate and walk rate) in more detail and explain why Arrieta doesn’t have as much control as you may think he does over the three factors that have doomed his last two starts. Analysis after the jump, all graphs in the posts are courtesy of our friends at Fangraphs.
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By Ross Gore, on May 7th, 2012
Yesterday, Chris Davis became the first position player to record a win in the last 40 years. Here we’ll look at Davis’ win By The Numbers. First we’ll look at how clutch Davis’ performance was in the 16th and 17th innings and then we’ll look at the “stuff” Davis brought with him to the mound.
By the numbers, Chris Davis is a clutch pitcher. Fangraphs has recorded how important a particular situation is in a baseball game depending on the inning, score, outs, and number of players on base for every game since 1974. The statistic that quantifies the importance of a situation is referred to as the leverage index. It is considered a smart practice to use a team’s best pitcher in situations with the highest leverage index. The informed reader will have no trouble guessing most of the names whose average usage has come during the highest leverage situations. The list of names of the top 10 pitches in terms of highest leverage average usage since 1974 includes Brian Wilson, Bruce Sutter and Mariano Rivera. However, currently Chris Davis leads them all. In his only (and thus 2.35 leverage index average) usage the innings Davis pitched were more important than the average usage of the top closers in baseball, and during those innings Davis was successful.
 Chris Davis' first splitter/change/something
By Ross Gore, on April 30th, 2012
Jason Hammel is one of the largest reasons for the Orioles hot start to the 2012 Season. The 6’6 right hander who was acquired in the offseason for former opening day starter and perennial fan favorite Jeremy Guthrie, has posted a 1.73 ERA in 26 innings while accumulating 3 wins.
As the attentive reader knows, statistics like ERA and wins are often not celebrated in By The Numbers. Instead, we focus on metrics that are predictive of what will happen in the future. However, even under the predictive metric microscope Jason Hammel shines. In short, Hammel is demonstrating several new skills making him a different pitcher than he has shown previously in his career. After the jump, we’ll look at Hammel’s new skills and discuss why we believe that he will continue go ham in 2012.
 Jason Hammel is going ham in 2012. READ MORE >>>
By Ross Gore, on April 17th, 2012
One of the skills of good pitchers is the ability to get hitters to swing at pitches outside of the strike zone. This week, we’ll look at the Orioles starting staff in this regard. Among AL starting pitchers the median rate for coaxing hitters to swing at pitches outside the strike zone (O-Swing %) is ~28%. But it’s not enough to just get guys to go after pitches out of the zone, pitchers need hitters to miss too. For American League pitchers the median contact rate (O-Contact %) when swinging at pitches out of the strike zone from starting pitchers is ~68%. In contrast the American League median contact rate (Z-Contact %) for hitters when swinging at pitches in the strike zone from starting pitchers is ~87%. Let’s see how the Orioles starting staff stacks up against these averages. It is important to note that it is mid April and increased sample sizes will make these numbers more reliable. However, for now, small samples are all we have and these types of plate discipline statistics stabilize more quickly than more traditional metrics such as strikeouts.
 - Opposing hitters struggle when they chase Jason Hammel’s pitches outside the zone.
Analysis after the jump.
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By Ross Gore, on April 11th, 2012
The return of April baseball has begat the rebirth of By The Numbers. This week we try and weed through the myriad of “on-pace” numbers that come along with the first week of actual MLB games and identify three statistics that are likely to identify real trends.
We’ll start down on the farm after the jump:
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By Ross Gore, on January 25th, 2012  Game by Game Rush DVOA The graph above shows the weekly Rush DVOA for the 2011 and 2010 incarnations of the Baltimore Ravens. Rush DVOA is a percentage, so a team with a Rush DVOA of 10.0% is 10 percent better at running the ball than the average team. Its also important to note that Rush DVOA measures not just rushing yardage, but the importance of the rushing yardage. For example, five yards on third-and-4 are worth more than five yards on first-and-10 and much more than five yards on third-and-12. Rush DVOA is also adjusted for the quality of the opponent, so a run against the 49ers is worth more than a run against the Browns. The data for the graph and the statistics in this post are all courtesy of Football Outsiders. The photos in the body of the post are courtesy of the linked websites.
An indepth look at all the contributors to the Ravens running game in 2011 follows after the jump.
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By Ross Gore, on January 17th, 2012 
The annotated Winning Percentage Graph for Ravens Divisional Round playoff win against the Houston Texans is shown above. The graph is taken from NFL Advanced Stats, while the annotations are ours. The graph shows each team’s chance of winning the game given historical data calculated from previous NFL games. For more details on Winning Percentage graphs please see our Reader’s Guide.
The biggest play in terms of Winning Percentage for the game came after the Ravens went 3 and out on their opening drive and punted to Jacoby Jones. Jones attempted to field the bouncing punt at his 13-yard line. As shown in the picture below provided by the Associated Press, Cary Williams launched into Jones, Jones lost the ball and it was recovered by Ravens first round pick Jimmy Smith at the Texans’ 2. Ravens and Texans fans alike appear to be baffled by Jones’ decision. Here, we’ll explore that decision and try to determine if it was reasonable, or not.
Clearly Jones’ considered the decision to field the punt to be a calculated risk: he could field the punt so that the Texans could start their drive at the 13 yard-line or let it bounce and potentially start at the 3 yard-line. So, did Jones’ make a rational decision? Is the risk of bobbling the catch worth the reward of starting at the 13 yard line? We answer this question and look into another bizarre decision by the Texans after the jump.
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By Ross Gore, on January 12th, 2012 
Before we delve into our playoff preview of the Houston Texans, let’s clear up one myth perpetuated by the talking heads on television: teams that won in the first round of the playoffs don’t have any advantage over their second round opponents. This is confusing because its impossible to change the television channel without catching some new gregarious haircut screaming, “The Texans won this weekend. What did the Ravens do? Nothing! While they were laying around eating Yoplaits and watching The Gilmore Girls, the Texans were out on the field.”
Since 2001, teams with a first-round bye are 25-15 (.625) in the second round of the playoffs. This doesn’t mean that the Ravens will win Sunday’s game everytime it is played, but it shows that they didn’t spend the weekend losing the capabilities that enabled them to win the AFC North. In fact, the upsets in this round that do happen, don’t look like the Ravens vs. Texans. Instead they resemble games like the Saints vs. 49ers, where a quantifiably great team happens to end up under-seeded.
With that misconception dispatched, let’s preview the Texans after the jump.
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By Ross Gore, on January 5th, 2012  Week 17 WPA Graph The annotated WPA Graph for Week 17 is shown above. The graph is taken from NFL Advanced Stats, while the annotations are ours. If you are new to WPA graphs please see our WPA Reader’s Guide. The game was bookended by Ray Rice run’s that made the Ravens heavy favorites in the first quarter and effectively sealed the game in the 4th quarter. Rice will receive the majority of the credit for this win and most of it is well deserved. However, he should share it with the offensive line. On both Rice’s 70 and 51 yard runs Marshal Yanda made a phenomenal blocks on Bengals LB Ray Maualuga. Effectively, the Ravens offensive line was the difference in the game. They were outstanding and decisive in a slugfest up front.
More from the game after the jump.
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By Ross Gore, on December 31st, 2011 It’s Saturday and that means we’re one day away from the Ravens locking down a first round AFC playoff bye as they travel to Cincinnati to take on the Bengals. Hopefully you have your gameday planned out involving recovering from NYE in your monogrammed Ray Lewis Snuggie and watching the game.
 - There is no better hangover cure than Ravens Football and a RL52 Snuggie.
The bullets for the Sunday’s game are after the jump.
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By Ross Gore, on December 28th, 2011  The annotated WPA Graph for Week 16 is shown above. The graph is taken from NFL Advanced Stats, while the annotations are ours. If you are new to WPA graphs please see our WPA Reader’s Guide. The game was effectively sealed at half time when the Browns showcased unprecedented levels of ineffectiveness. With just over a minute to go, Greg Little broke several tackles to get the Browns into a 2nd-and-1 situation at the 8-yard line instead of a 2nd-and-14. The Browns burned their final timeout presumably because it would’ve taken awhile to gather everyone together up to the line of scrimmage. After the Browns got a fresh set of downs by running the ball, they had two options: clock the ball to discuss the next play, or run the next play. The chose to run the play, a pass to Evan Moore in the flat near the sidelines at about the 3-yard line. As soon as Moore turned around, he was driven back about a yard, thus when we went out of bounds, the clock can kept running. With 11 seconds to play, the Browns inexplicably chose to run the ball. Peyton Hillis was stopped for no gain and the half ended. It was an absurdly aggressive decision (apparently made soley by Seneca Wallace) not to choose to clock the ball and the Browns paid for in terms of the scoreboard and in terms of WPA. Their inability to get any points in that situation vaulted the Ravens to a 93% chance on winning the game.
However, the Browns were not done making awful mistakes. Due to a solid come back against a putrid Baltimore offense in the 4th quarter, the Browns had the opportunity to attempt a game-winning drive with two minutes remaining, all they had to do was stay out of the neutral zone before the snap. They could not. An overly eager Phil Taylor jumped into the neutral zone giving the Ravens a fresh set of downs and sealing an ugly win.
More observations from the game after the jump.
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By Ross Gore, on December 23rd, 2011  Ray Rice and company look to stay undefeated in the AFC North this Saturday. The Ravens face off against the Cleveland Browns in their final home regular season game of the 2011 Season. The Browns are currently ravaged by injuries, the Ravens need to win to maintain their #2 seed in the AFC playoffs and the Ravens are 7-0 at home this year. Its really hard to make any case for the Ravens losing this game but then again the Indianapolis Colts (2-13) beat the Houston Texans (10-5) putting in jeopardy their chance at the #1 overall pick in the 2012 NFL Draft. Its referred to as the coin flip league for a reason, no single game outcome is improbable. Without further ado, lets jump into the bullets after the jump:
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By Ross Gore, on December 20th, 2011  Week 15 WPA Chart The annotated WPA Graph for Week 15 is shown above. The graph is taken from NFL Advanced Stats, while the annotations are ours. If you are new to WPA graphs please see our WPA Reader’s Guide. Last week against the Colts in the 4th quarter we broke out the picture of Snoopy sleeping to indicate that those plays were inconsequential to determining the outcome of the game. This week, we’re bringing Snoopy back but under less rosey circumstances. Instead of building a lead that couldn’t be overcome, as the Ravens did in Week 14 against the Colts, Poe and Co. were facing an insurmountable lead against the Chargers. The shocking thing is that this game was incredibly close through most of 2 quarters, then in the words of San Diego’s favorite anchorman, “things really got out of hand fast!” With 3:26 left in the first half the Ravens had a 43% chance of winning the game when Joe Flacco inexplicably overthrew an open Ray Rice in the flat. The Ravens punted an San Diego scored a TD closing the half with a 17-7 lead and a 84% chance of winning. More notes from the game after the jump.
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By Ross Gore, on December 17th, 2011  Ravens Defense By Offense Its the Week 15 Ravens Preview Time. However, before we get into decomposing Sunday night’s game, lets give thanks for the balance of the Harbaugh-led Ravens. Since 2000, the Ravens have only posted an above average offense and an above average defense according to NFL Advanced Stats only three times: 2009, 2010 and 2011. The best offensive team during those years was in 2009 and the best defensive team the Ravens have had in those three years is this 2011 team. The graph above shows the elite defenses the Ravens have had since 2000 (best over that time period in the NFL) and the balance of the last three Harbaugh-led teams.
Preview of Ravens vs. Chargers after the jump.
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By Ross Gore, on December 14th, 2011  Week 14 WPA Graph The annotated WPA Graph for Week 13 is shown above. The graph is taken from NFL Advanced Stats, while the annotations are ours. If you are new to WPA graphs please see our WPA Reader’s Guide.
Notes on the game and a graph showing how balanced all NFL teams are after the jump.
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