Everyone thinks 1st Base is deep, but I always disagree. Its top heavy, and after Round 3 every option has major risks that I wouldn’t want to take. There are however good late options that could be superstars or fall flat. Alas here are my rankings:

  1. Albert Pujols (STL)
  2. Miguel Cabrera (DET)
  3. Joey Votto (CIN)
  4. Adrian Gonzalez (BOS)
  5. Prince Fielder (MIL)
  6. Kevin Youkilis (BOS)
  7. Mark Teixeira (NYY)
  8. Ryan Howard (PHI)
  9. Buster Posey (SF)
  10. Victor Martinez (DET)
  11. Kendry Morales (LAA)
  12. Adam Dunn (CWS)
  13. Pablo Sandoval (SF)
  14. Justin Morneau (MIN)
  15. Billy Butler (KC)
  16. Brandon Belt (SF)
  17. Carlos Lee (HOU)
  18. Kila Ka’aihue (KC)
  19. Lance Berkman (STL)
  20. Freddie Freeman (ATL)

Where are Paul Konerko, Carlos Pena, and Aubrey Huff? They didn’t make my top 20 because they will all be busts. Don’t draft any of them. If you need an explanation why then ask. Close calls were Konerko (because he still has some value), Justin Smoak, Ike Davis, Gaby Sanchez, Derrek Lee, Chris Davis, and Jake Fox (just kidding).

Take Pujols, Cabrera, Votto, and Adrian in the first round. All 4 will put up gigantic numbers. In round 2 I like Fielder better than Teixeira and Howard. Fielder is great every other year and its a contract year. He should hit 40+ HR. Im afraid Teix’s average wont rebound, and Howard is starting to decline already and can’t stay healthy.

Youkilis is bound to have a huge bounce back season in that amazing BOS offense. Obviously Posey, V-Mart, Sandoval, and Lee are available at multiple positions. I recommend drafting all of those guys at their normal positions since they are much more thin. All are good picks but they all seem weak to me as a 1B.

Morales, Dunn, Morneau, and Butler all come with their own risks or negatives. Morales is a good pick if healthy but is risky to bounce back. He has the best chance to bounce back though. Dunn will kill your average. Morneau would probably hit the DL if he chipped a nail. Butler may lose a little average and already has no power. Or he could develop some power late and still have an elite average. He’s a risky toss up.
Berkman should do what Vladimir Guerrero did last year and have a great comeback season with a high powered offense. Berkman by himself was bad, but Berkman with Pujols and Holliday= stud. Don’t sleep on him. He will gain eligibility at OF and is a good late cheap option there.

Now to my Big 3 young guns. Loooooooove Belt, Ka’aihue, and Freeman. If Belt makes the opening day team take him. He dominated the minors, the Arizona fall league, and spring training. Your looking at a future Miguel Cabrera caliber player who could easily win rookie of the year. Ka’aihue and Freeman will both be playing everyday and should put up fantasy worthy numbers. Of course with a rookie you have to worry about a low average, but both should produce decent power numbers. I watched batting practice every single home game last year at Nats Park and Freeman hit the ball further than any player the entire season…Pujols was second…no lie. But I like Ka’aihue slightly better than Freeman. Grab one of the 3 late and you could get a 25-30 HR piece of gold.

For statistics, comments, and projections on the top 1143 players of the 2011 Fantasy Baseball season purchase my highly accurate spreadsheet. It will put you into your fantasy baseball playoffs. $10 contact me at mbrown3486@gmail.com I will send an example of the 2010 spread sheet upon request.

Check out The Fantasy God’s other position break downs: