If at this point in the season you’re struggling a little, can’t seem to find anyone on the waiver wire that will help your team immediately, and can’t work out a trade then there is only one solution. Prospects. The chance of these guys making an immediate impact and helping your team is well worth the risk. This is why every time there is breaking news and the chance of a call up I have posted something on here. At the end of the day if the prospect isn’t called up it can be frustrating, but realize that adding these guys on the fly is low risk. The chance of getting a Buster Posey like player is well worth cutting a bench hitter for the the small chance that he will get called up. If you are in a league that has a move cap or costs money to make moves then maybe this isn’t the best idea for you. To all the rest I leave it up to you to make it your personal decision on whether or not you want to jump on these young guys who have the “chance” of coming. If they do come up and perform well you could be set to win your championship. If they do not get called up then you can either wait on them or just cut them again. What do you have to lose? Keep that in mind when I tell you to grab a Teheran or a Montero and they only make one start or don’t get the call. The reward is far worth the risk. So if you would like to follow me on this path lets take a look at these current situations with their fantasy impact.
Julio Teheran- A few weeks back I said to add him immediately. Unfortunately he made one spot start and was optioned back down to AAA. His final line didn’t look too impressive on paper against a tough Phillies lineup, but there were a lot of positives in that start. It was extremely valuable for a young guy like this to get that experience and to experience some success against a division winning club. The good news is that it looks like he will be recalled on Wednesday to replace the injured Brandon Beachy in the rotation. I said it last time too, but this time around I really don’t see why the Braves would send him back down when Beachy returns. His major league clock has already started and blowing two options on him would be a huge mistake. Worst case scenario is that he struggles and goes into the bullpen once Beachy returns. Best case scenario is that he shows flashes of brilliance, keeps the spot, and either forces Beachy to the bullpen, or forces a Derek Lowe trade. Teheran is the top pitching prospect in all of baseball at only 20 years old and projects to be Atlanta’s #1 Starter for years to come. He has much more talent than guys like Jeremy Hellickson, Michael Pineda, and Zach Britton, but whether or not that talent will come immediately at the big league level at age 20 is to be seen. For the cost of cutting a bench player he is very much worth this risk. If you haven’t done so yet add him right now as he should make at least 3 starts starting Wednesday night.
Jesus Montero- Well, now you have thousands of Yankees fans, baseball fans, and writers crying to call up Montero. The Yankees were already doubting the future of Posada before this whole incident. This whole thing can bring nothing but good for Montero in the short term. He is dominating AAA and was quoted as being very “bored” there. My gut still tells me that he will be coming very soon. If you want to wait to be sure then do that, but if you think someone else will snatch him up then get him now. He is a very good contact hitter, hits for a high average, and has some power. He could easily be this year’s Buster Posey.
Eric Hosmer- I’ve been getting a ton of questions asking if Hosmer is legit. Is he? Yes. Will he experience growing pains? Yes. Which means Hosmer will not continue to hit over .300 for much longer. Like most rookies Hosmer will begin to struggle once teams figure out how to pitch to him. I’m sure his average will dip back into the .270 area eventually. From there he should get hot again, and be off an on like every other player. I think he can end around .280 with a decent 15 HR this season. Those are pretty decent fantasy numbers. Long term he is as good as any big 1B in baseball. We’re talking Mark Teixeira good. If he’s still out there grab him as a backup or utility player, but do not make him your primary 1B. I’ve seen a lot of people trying to deal big 1B’s like Prince Fielder away because they now have Hosmer. Don’t do it. You will really weaken your team. But a combo of Fielder/Hosmer is very solid.
Some more rookie pickups.
Tyler Chatwood- A two start pitcher this week with 4 of his last 6 starts being quality starts.
Carlos Carrasco- Just returned from the DL. Don’t let his total numbers fool you. After his first start and before his injury he threw 3 straight quality start gems in a row. He’s a good option for the rest of this year, and long term he is a Gio Gonzalez like pitcher with strikeouts that will increase greatly.
Tyson Ross- He is now in the rotation now that Dallas Braden is out for a long time. Anyone who pitches for Oakland has value. Anyone. He’s now made 4 starts, all of which have been quality starts. Get him while he’s hot.
Alex White- Yet another good Cleveland starter. He was a 1st round pick 2 years ago and has high upside. Both starts he’s made in his young career have been quality starts and he struck out 6 in his last game. He will get hit around a little eventually, but he’s not a bad option. Long term Cleveland will have an amazing rotation with Drew Pomeranz, Justin Masterson, Carlos Carrasco, Alex White, and Josh Tomlin. Things are looking good if your an Indians fans.
Since I haven’t touched a whole lot on prospects this season and to follow up to this news, I will take a look at all the top Baseball America Prospects on Wednesday. We will look at dozens of prospects in order of their rank and their fantasy impact both this season and long term. So don’t forget to come back to BSR this Wednesday! Questions? Comments? Ask them.
About Teheran, I wanted to clarify the “options” case.
You said, “His major league clock has already started and blowing two options on him would be a huge mistake.”
From my understanding of options, a player has 3 option years once he is added to the 40 man roster. People call them just “options” all the time, which seems to be misleading, because it really is an “option year.” In an option year, a player is able to be called up and sent down as many times as the club wishes and only 1 of the player’s 3 options (or option years) is used.
Also, the Braves have 4 off days in the next 3 weeks. So while Teheran figures to start Wednesday May 18, they could actually go up to June 12 without using a 5th starting pitcher. So Teheran could conceivably be sent back down to AAA after his start on Wednesday in order to get him continual work if the team chooses to forego using a 5th starter. Teheran would then be eligible to be called back up 10 days after he is sent down, unless the Braves place someone on the DL then Teheran could be called back up before the 10 days.
Of course things could change between now and then with other injuries to the rotation and what not, or the team could simply choose to employ the 5-man rotation even with the scheduled off days. However, I think that Fredi Gonzalez knows that he has a very strong front four with Hudson, Lowe, Jurrjens, and Hanson, and so he may want to try and keep those guys on regular rest and pitch them in as many games as he can instead of rolling the dice on Teheran.
Though I have to agree that Teheran is a fine pickup to make (and a must have in keeper leagues) since he has loads of potential. And you never know if one of the other Braves SP’s will get injured to create extra time for Teheran to stay with the big league club, or if Beachy ends up being out longer than first predicted.
One last thing, Carlos Carrasco and Tyson Ross don’t qualify as rookies this season.
@Jason – Your right about the option years. Thanks for clarifying to the readers. As I stated in my intro getting these guys are good risks if you have nothing to lose. If you have to pay for your moves or have a limit it may not be in your best interest to grab them now because of these risks. If you are able to pick up Teheran for Wednesday and chance that he stays up and stays in the rotation and have nothing to lose then do it. If he goes back down he can be cut again. It doesn’t really hurt you either way. Its hard to tell exactly what the Braves will do but jerking a 20 year old around like that over and over isn’t smart. My opinion is that it would be in their best interest to leave him up and to keep him in a regular 5 man rotation until Beachy returns. Especially since Lowe has battled a few small injuries and Jurrjens isn’t far removed from the DL. And young guys would have been a better term than rookies. I knew Ross wasn’t a rookie having been in the bullpen for awhile last year. Carrasco i saw had under 50 IP last season, now that I checked I see that he had time in ’09 as well. Good stuff Jason, your right. Which is why I clarify that if you have nothing to lose from adding these guys then do it. If there is too much risk just wait.
I love the BSR website except for the guy who wrote this
juuuuust kidding… i just picked up Ross … i think he is a way better option than Teheran, White, chatwood and carrasco… Teheraan is only up for another spot start then will be sent right back down
@curt ferg – Thats TBD
@The Fantasy God –
False. http://blogs.ajc.com/atlanta-braves-blog/2011/05/16/teheran-to-make-spot-start-wednesday-vs-arizona/
Your thoughts on the Dodgers Closing situation? Think Gurrier will get more save attempts with three people on the DL or will Jansen be the likely interim closer?
@Scot – Its a mess. I wouldn’t touch any of them. Guerrier/Jansen/McDougal all are not good enough to hold a sole closers job. So it has to be closer by committee. And with tonight’s game being an extra inning one that really didn’t help to show what anybody’s late role will be. McDougal got the save, but that was only because it went so many innings. Jansen was used in the most important role to hold the tie game, but he also came in the 8th which isnt a good sign. Guerrier faced one hitter in a situational role which also isn’t a good sign. McDougal showing that he could convert the save may be big for him, but him being the third option tonight also isn’t a good sign. So just stay away unless someone is given back to back save opportunities. If you are desperate and have to take a chance on someone I guess go with Guerrier.
@Jason yeah this guy doesn’t know anything about how service time is managed. Seemingly everyone in the world knew teheran was just a spot start except for the fantasy dog. When this guy throws out stuff like “just as good as strasburg” I immediately know he doesn’t know his head from his arse. Strasburg was a generational talent. Teheran is very good but hes not close to strasburg. That is not a knock on Teheran (who I think will be great/ a #1 starter) its just strasburg had two pitches grade out as “80” and an average major league CU. YOU DON’T SEE THAT EVER!
@Reality Check – So you agree that Teheran is a #1 starter. I don’t care how good Strasburg’s individual pitches are, what is care about is numbers. Teheran will put up numbers in his prime that match or beat Strasburg’s. That’s if Strasburg is healthy. Teheran has much better control and a better delivery so you don’t have to worry about him being an injury prone player. I for one am a big supporter of TJ surgery and a believer that players do come back better and stronger, so I believe Strasburg can stay healthy when he comes back. But Teheran will have a longer career. And anyone who knows baseball knows that a player’s spot is determined by performance. If Teheran would have had a 1 ERA after those two starts then he would have forced a rotation spot, especially when Hudson was injured. In a battle of Teheran vs. Strasburg you can either chose Teheran, look at the player as a whole, and put a little thought into the game, or you can chose Strasburg, listen to what everyone in the world tells you, and not think for yourself. But what do I know? Not my head from my arse.
@fantasy dog,
If by everyone in the world you mean scouts and people who do know there head from there ass than yes I will listen to them. Strasburgs debut he struck out 14 guys and they were not even close. In 2010 he was striking out 12 a game according to baseballreference.com and only walking about 2. Teheran through only 8.2 ip has 2 strike outs total. If you want to use his minor league stats by all means go for it, there still not as good as strasburgs MAJOR LEAGUE STATS. So i don’t know where your getting your information from (my guess your ass). Im glad your excited to get a look at Teheran but hes not ready yet. He needs to build more arm strength and if your the braves there is absolutely no rush as hes only 20. The only reason he got those spot starts is for the simple fact that it was his turn in the rotation. He could have thrown two perfect games and he still would have gone back to AAA.
@Reality Check –
Look, if you don’t like Mark’s analysis, go some where else and stop boring us with your middle school language and taunts. I have found Mark’s analysis to be spot on and he patiently responds to every post, including your insults and dribble. Grow up. Maybe your high school buddies think your cool when you post your crap here, but it’s plain to see that your just a frustrated weasel who hides behind a keyboard and spewing hate. Please just go away.
Your argumentum ad hominem does nothing to invalidate my paragraph above. Hows that for middle school? #UhOh!
@Reality Check – Pretty familiar with Strasburg’s starts…i was at all of them. I didn’t realize we were talking about their major league numbers up to this point. Not sure how the subject turned into that as my article spoke of those two head to head long term. If were talking about current stats then I see Teheran having at least 2 more K’s then Strasburg will this season. It’s just as ridiculous to talk about injuries as it is to talk about a minor league sample size of 2 games from a 20 year old. My article focuses on long term and career. And the comment about him throwing two perfect games and going back to AAA made me laugh. If you really believe that then I won’t waste any more of my time and only respond to those people who can use common sense.