In the spirit of Jimmy the Greek, we’re going to offer you some stone cold locks this football weekend, or, just some spurious guesses based on cursory analysis and casual observation. Either way, this being Baltimore, we thought we’d hear from our favorite wholesale narcotics importer: the man known simply as “The Greek.”
Greek’s 2011 Record ATS: 20-29-1
Greetings readers. Very interesting Week 14 around the NFL and with regard to my picks. Games I thought were winners as they were being played (49ers and Panthers) came out to be losers. However, other contests that looked to have no shot either covered (Houston. Yates to Walter! zuh?) or came close (Tebows). The Packers dismantling of the Raiders was the only thing I got right from the start. 2-3 ATS in Week 14. Week 12′s push and Week 9′s 3-2 feel like decades ago. That will not be the high mark, readers! I will get this thing turned around! I have left Baltimore, by the way. Once again I find myself located in an undisclosed location along the Hudson River. The wedding was excellent. Thanks for asking. The pizza is great here, but I already miss crab cakes. Here are the picks.
Green Bay Packers -13.5 against Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs are 3-3 ATS at home and a very impressive 7-3 ATS as the underdog in 2011, but they just don’t score a lot. The Packers do and will. They’re also 4-3 ATS on the road and 9-4 ATS overall. This should be a blowout of 20 or more.
NY Jets +3 against Philadelphia Eagles
Both sets of numbers are awful on these teams. The Jets are a mediocre 6-7 ATS overall, 2-4 ATS away from Met Life and 1-2 as the underdog. So, why aren’t I endorsing the Eagles here? A quick rundown of their wonderful 2011 shows a 1-5 mark ATS at Lincoln Financial and a 3-7 mark as the favorite. Philly will most likely be eliminated from playoff contention prior to the start of this game and I have a hard time believing they’ll get amped up to play the role of spoiler since they haven’t seemed able to get up for games when they actually counted. The Jets need to win out to guarantee a playoff spot and the Eagles are most likely thinking of which they prefer between Pat’s or Geno’s.
Dallas Cowboys -6.5 against Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This is a game where I am completely ignoring the numbers. Dallas is a great team to pick against this year. They are 4-8-1 ATS overall 2-3-1 away from home and 2-7-1 as the favorite. It doesn’t matter to me in the least. Tampa Bay has given up on their season and their coach. I think Tampa is the team you pick against for the rest of the way or until the lines start getting out of control. If you want some numbers to make you feel better about it, Tampa Bay is 2-5 ATS at home and 3-6 ATS as the dog.
Houston Texans -6.5 against Carolina Panthers
The only things that makes me nervous about this pick is the potential let down the Texans have after clinching their first playoff spot in team history. There’s also the possibility for the Newton last minute cover. Houston is 5-1 ATS at home and 7-1 ATS as the favorite. Might as well throw in their 10-3 ATS overall and riding a 7 game win streak for good measure.
New England Patriots -6.5 against Denver Broncos
Maybe you lucked out (as I did) and your line had moved in the Tebow/Bears game from 3.5 on Thursday to 3 on Sunday. Even if you didn’t, the Broncos are still 6-2 ATS since Tebow took over. It’s tough to argue with just taking the points and going with the stats so far. However, this is the exact kind of game where Brady and Belichick love to run it up and prove a point. Besides, if Tebow beats Brady it might be time we all start going to church.