At 11 years old, I watched as Mike Mussina won 18 games for my beloved Baltimore Orioles in 1999. It was the Moose’s fifth consecutive season over 200 innings pitched and earned him his fifth trip to the All-Star game and second place in the AL Cy Young award Voting.
In the midst of seeing Mussina take the mound over his 18 year career, I always thought of him as a dominant arm, but not as a Hall of Famer. It wasn’t until recently that my opinion changed.
CBSSports.com’s Matt Snyder opines that former Braves lefty Tom Glavine will “get in soon”, but thinks that Mussina’s road to Cooperstown will be much more difficult. Glavine’s career checks off a few of those Hall of Fame milestones: 300 wins (five 20+ win seasons), a pair of Cy Young awards and a World Series MVP in 1995.
However, a closer look at Mussina’s career statistics will reveal a variety of similarities between he and Glavine — in some instances Mussina posts more dominant numbers.
Mike Mussina
Tom Glavine
Despite Glavine reaching the 300 win milestone, he averaged two less wins per season than Mussina and posted a lower winning percentage. While Glavine gets the edge in ERA, Mussina has the advantage in WHIP (1.192), H/9 (8.7), BB/9 (2.0), K/9 (7.1) and K/BB (3.58).
SI.com’s Jay Jaffe has been tirelessly dissecting the Hall of Fame ballot using his JAWS system to score candidates. His metrics indicate that Mussina should be in Cooperstown.
As for the advanced metrics, Mussina stands tall thanks to his combination of run prevention and strikeouts (for which he doesn’t have to share value with his fielders). His 83.0 career WAR ranks 23rd all-time, ahead of 39 of the 57 enshrined starting pitchers; it’s 14th among post-World War II pitchers. That total is 1.6 above fellow candidate Glavine, who has an almost identical career/peak/JAWS line, and 10.4 wins above the average for enshrined starters. Mussina’s peak WAR of 44.5 doesn’t stack up as well; while it’s still 65th all-time, it tops only 20 enshrined starters and is 5.7 wins below the average one. Even so, his 63.8 JAWS is 2.4 points above the Hall average, good for 28th all-time, one spot below Schilling (64.4) and two above Glavine (62.9). He’s 132 spots higher than Jack Morris (38.4). His score beats those of 36 enshrined starters. He’s good enough for Cooperstown.
Mussina’s JAWS score beats those of 36 enshrined starters, and it will still be above the standard once Clemens, Maddux, Johnson, Martinez and Tom Glavine all get their due (the admission of those five would raise the respective bars to 75.1/50.7/62.9). He’s good enough for Cooperstown.
So where’s the love for Mussina? Why isn’t he the sure thing, shoo-in that everyone says Glavine is? The cynic in me wonders if the national attention generated by TBS helps Glavine’s case. Though it’s likely the milestone achievements he reached that I listed above.
Regardless, I’ve found new respect for Mussina’s career and finally agree with Jim Palmer: Put Mike Mussina in the Hall of Fame.
Statistics Provided by Baseball-Reference.com.
Image Credit: 60ft6in.com, found using Creative Commons search tool.
I think both guys should get in, not first ballet but at some point they should get in. I’d rather see these two in the hall over that dirt bag Clemens.
Mussina was never the best pitcher in his league in a given year, so how is he a HOFer? Never won a CY Young, never an MVP. What is this the Hall of Fame or the Hall of Pretty Good?
The Reality is that 270 wins is 270 wins. He may be the last big leaguer with that many wins. HOF all the way and he goes in as an Oriole!
Who says being a CY Young or MVP winner is the litmus test for the HOF? I’ll bet I can find a HOFer that has numbers similar to Mussina, without a CY Young or MVP. He might have played a while ago but I bet I can find one.
Mussina has better numbers overall. Played in much tougher division
**The AL East alone produced a World Series champion in nearly half of Mussina’s career! (Toronto in ’92-’93. NYY in ’96, ’98,’99, 2000, Bo Sox in 2004 and 2007.)**
While the NL east was joke during Glavine time..
You know as a guy who hates Mussina and tries to build a case against him for the Hall it’s hard as anything to go against his numbers. Trust me, I sit here and fight what he has done in baseball. However, I cannot find anything against not putting him in.
I will say that “Reality” has it right about it now being the “Hall of Pretty Good”. That happened when they let Jim Rice, Bert Blyleven, Bobby Cox, Andre Dawson, Dennis Eckersley, Barry Larkin, Kirby Puckett, Ron Santo, and Red Schoendienst in. They had a real Hall of Fame and it was for the true greats but it seems like they lowered their standards. When they talk about guys like Fred McGriff, Dwight Evans, Greg Nettles, Dale Murphy, Ron Guidry, Lou Whitaker, Alan Trammell, Jack Morris, Tim Raines, and Don Mattingly that should be in is really a travesty. The hall is for “Greats” not “Almost Greats”…
So there is my rant on Mussina whom I cannot see not deserving a place because Mussina truly was “Great” during his career pitching in the tough AL East. And I cannot stand Mussina so take it for what it’s worth…
And my opinion on the Hall of Fame…
BTW, I’m goina try to be a nicer guy this year…
Raines is top 5 all time in steals and if henderson didnt exist would probably be considered the greatest leadoff hitter of all time
I tend to agree with REALITY.
So, Pole, maybe we should start calling it the “Hall of Consistency”. He was “consistently” 2nd or 3rd best in baseball. Never won a World Series, never a Cy Young. He was “consistent”.
Sure, put him in. It’s like everything else is now in sports – watered down. Teams in the NFL fighting for a playoff spot in week 17 at 8-8, so SURE put Mussina in.
Speaking of consistency, Cal Ripken is in. A model of consistency but not great. There are alot of very good players in the hall. Cannot do anything about that now. My new team, the Atlanta Braves, Dale Murphy won 2 MVP’s, was better than 350lb Cal and still can’t get into the hall.
Bonds, Clemens, Sosa, never been caught cheating, yet guilty in the piblic’s eye. Gatylord Perry, admiited cheater, in HoF! WTF
The baseball HoF will always be a joke until Peter Edward Rose gets in.
Hate to say this fellas but Machado was seen hanging with AFraud over the Holidays. Not what you want is to have your young star player who should be rehabbing hanging with AFraud. Hang with someone else cause you don’t want to start being a primadonna….
Nothing new, 2488. Machado has hung out with ARod since high school.
Look, me and Nails hang out with you, does that make us bad guys?!?
I went over to 2488’s during the holidays. I used to be a nice guy until I started hanging around with hooligans. Let me play devils advocate here, how do we know the guys before had superior numbers and were deserving of HOF? We idolized players back in the 70’s and the news didn’t print a lot of the bad stuff on people back in the day either. Player worship is gone and the money has destroyed the game. Bob Lemon is inducted back in 73 with a 207-128 reocord, no significant achievements. Robin Roberts inducted with a 286-245 record. Juan Marichal had a 243-142 record, no Cy Youngs or MVP’s. Hoyt Wilhelm had a record of 143-122. I know he was a relief pitcher as well but what gets him into the HOF. I can probably give you more but I think I’ve made my point.
Wow, Pole, I guess you should have researched this a little better.
You see, the Cy Young Award didn’t come to be until 1956. Until that time, the Sporting News had a Pitcher of the Year Award, which was the “Cy Young” of the day.
Lemon won the award 3 times – 1948, 1950, and 1954.
Roberts – 1952 (AL),1955.
Wilhelm – 1952 (NL)
So, as you can see, aside from Marichal, these other pitchers were the best in their leagues for a particular time, NOT 2nd or 3rd best.
Are you like the guy wh thinks football only started when the Super Bowl went into play?
So, NFL championships don’t count?
I was on wikipedia at the time and it did not mention that award. I will use a better informed website next time. So are you telling me that getting one award during an entire career is the litmus test for the HOF? You don’t look at the entire career of an individual and look at it on its merits. Oh, OK, lets put Doug Drabek, John Denny, Pete Vuckovich, Bob Welch in the the HOF. They were the best at some point in their career.