The annotated WPA Graph for Week 16 is shown above. The graph is taken from NFL Advanced Stats, while the annotations are ours. If you are new to WPA graphs please see our WPA Reader’s Guide. The game was effectively sealed at half time when the Browns showcased unprecedented levels of ineffectiveness. With just over a minute to go, Greg Little broke several tackles to get the Browns into a 2nd-and-1 situation at the 8-yard line instead of a 2nd-and-14. The Browns burned their final timeout presumably because it would’ve taken awhile to gather everyone together up to the line of scrimmage. After the Browns got a fresh set of downs by running the ball, they had two options: clock the ball to discuss the next play, or run the next play. The chose to run the play, a pass to Evan Moore in the flat near the sidelines at about the 3-yard line. As soon as Moore turned around, he was driven back about a yard, thus when we went out of bounds, the clock can kept running. With 11 seconds to play, the Browns inexplicably chose to run the ball. Peyton Hillis was stopped for no gain and the half ended. It was an absurdly aggressive decision (apparently made soley by Seneca Wallace) not to choose to clock the ball and the Browns paid for in terms of the scoreboard and in terms of WPA. Their inability to get any points in that situation vaulted the Ravens to a 93% chance on winning the game.

However, the Browns were not done making awful mistakes. Due to a solid come back against a putrid Baltimore offense in the 4th quarter, the Browns had the opportunity to attempt a game-winning drive with two minutes remaining, all they had to do was stay out of the neutral zone before the snap. They could not. An overly eager Phil Taylor jumped into the neutral zone giving the Ravens a fresh set of downs and sealing an ugly win.

More observations from the game after the jump.