This guest post was submitted to BSR by Carl Sumner. Interested in contributing a guest post to BSR? Send us an email: baltimoresportsreport@gmail.com
Opening Day is just weeks away and if you listen to the experts, Orioles’ fans should just start finding other ways to entertain themselves this summer. Pecota, one of the supposed “End-all, Be-alls” in baseball analytics predicts 70 wins for our Birds, but this time who can blame them?
The 2017 pitching staff had the worst ERA in the majors last year at 5.70 runs per game. Some may point to the losses of Ubaldo Jimenez and Wade Miley as “additions by subtraction” and that may be true, but somebody has to pitch. Picking up a tenacious guy like Andrew Cashner certainly could help. He has to be an upgrade over Ubaldo and Miley and boasted a decent 2017 record over the AL East. Chris Tillman is back on a one-year deal, and Kevin Gausman and Dylan Bundy are back, too. Folks, that’s only 4 starters, and that quartet would likely be #3 and 4 starters on most playoff teams.
Adding to the pitching woes, arguably the teams best players — Manny Machado and Jonathan Schoop — appear to be on a one way ticket out of town to some big market cities like New York, LA, or Boston. In Manny’s case, it could be before the team runs down the orange carpet on Opening Day.
Their two big power guys – Chris Davis and Mark Trumbo are coming back from very forgettable seasons. The two sluggers struck out a combined 344 times and hit a combined 49 home runs which was two less than Trumbo hit himself in 2016. Davis seemingly looked a called strike three at least once a game.
The bullpen, always a stalwart under the Showalter-Duquette reign, took a big blow with the loss of Zach Britton for at least the first 2 months of the season.
If you read the Pecota analysis and followed the 2017 season and offseason, you’ve got to be thinking – all hope is lost.
But is it…
What if…
What if Dylan Bundy is finally 100 percent healthy and back to strength after a series of arm issues and he lives up to that 2011 4th overall pick hype?
What if Kevin Gausman, still at a young age 27, figures it out and lives up to his 2012 4th overall pick hype?
What is Chris TIllman goes back to being the pre-2017 Chris TIllman that anchored the staff that went to the playoffs in 2014 and 2016?
What if Andrew Cashner serves admirably as the #3 or 4 starter?
What if former AL East pitcher Alex Cobb, who is still without a contract, comes into town on a late offseason “Dan Duquette Special” and has something to prove to the other teams that passed up on him?
What if Manny, in a contract year, does what the whole baseball world thinks he’s capable of and wins the AL MVP?
What if Jonathon Schoop just keeps being Jonathon Schoop, one of the bright young stars in baseball?
What if Britton bounces back earlier than expected (he’s said to be way ahead of schedule) and the rest of the bullpen is rejuvenated because Miley and Ubaldo are being bounced from the game in the first few innings?
What if Adam Jones puts the team on his back, one last time, and this team does the unexpected?
It could happen…
Admittedly, there are lot of “Ifs” in my equation – way more than with the other expected playoff teams in the American League – but every year, some team seems to come out of no where and defy expectations.
WHAT IF this year, it’s the Orioles?
If so I’ll believe in the Easter Bunny & Santa too and demand Buck be placed in the Hall of Fame immediately !
Every year they’ve been picked to be in last place and every year except last they were better. I think the subtraction of Miley and Ubaldo is an improvement. I don’t see them being as bad as they were last season at all. I don’t see them being good enough to seriously contend for anything, but they aren’t going to be terrible.
Now, that presents a different argument. Do we really want them to just be fine? If they’re in it, they won’t be trading off pieces to rebuild the farm. If they think they have a chance they could even try to add pieces to deplete the farm more. Would it be better if they were just hot garbage? Probably.
Michael Barnes
We can dream bud! Time to shock the world
I say it every year, bud! It CAN happen!
I BOHlieve every year, Scotty G!! We’re a select few that do. One day I will stand in the middle of Pratt/Eutaw St. intersection and celebrate. One day…
Steve you’re not gonna bring the army hat are you?
Scotty Grove… don’t leave home without it!
If everything goes right, we’ll still finish 13-15 games out of 1st…..Stupidest contract in baseball giving Chris Davis $161 million, could have used those $$$ to extend Manny and Schoop, and OMG shall i say improve our starting pitching.
Pigs fly?
Davis makes. money til 2030 his deal doesn’t effect signing machado
I do believe in this years Os. One of the biggest reason is addition by subtraction. We had 4 SP combine for almost 90 games and almost 7 ERA. It is reasonable that KG and DB have mid 3 ERA seasons. It is reasonable for Cash to be at 4 ERA or less. If the other two spots get under 5 ERA we will improve by about a 1.25 ERA. Thats huge. We dont have to be great to have great improvement in our SP.
On offense, CD and MT were so bad last year. Combined for 126 RBI and hit mostly in the middle of the order. I say they cost us at least 60 runs. I think this will be improved by a comeback, platooning or replacement.
Manny was only good last year. I believe he is headed for an MVP type season.
Hardy (one of my favorites) was really bad last year. TB takes his spot and provides much better production and speed.
OF defense will improve due to Rasmus much better than Smith, no more Trumbo, and youth on the way with Hays and Mullins.
I also believe we have a handful of young guys who will give us depth and energy thru the season.
My final wishes are: sign Cobb. Trade Trumbo and add lefty hitting Alvarez to the DH spot. Also, opens up the RH DH spot to Valencia and flexible guys for rest like MM, JS, AJ