I refuse to believe that the Orioles won’t sign a starting pitcher offseason. It should be noted that I acknowledge my blind faith is completely inexplicable. The O’s have given me no reason to have confidence that they’ll address their biggest need, but I just can’t imagine it will completely be ignored. I mean, it can’t be, right?
Thankfully, SB Nation’s baseball insider/wonder kid Chris Cotillo has my back.
Would be surprised if the #Orioles did not land a free agent starter. Feelers out everywhere.
— Chris Cotillo (@ChrisCotillo) January 27, 2014
Thanks, Chris.
As the days roll by, I believe more and more that A.J. Burnett will actually walk away from the game and retire. Back in November, I didn’t think there was a chance he’d hang up his STFD t-shirt and call it quits. Burnett was straight up nasty in the second half of 2013 — whether the numbers showed it or not.
1st Half: 3.06 ERA, .205 BAA, 1.17 WHIP
2nd Half: 3.56 ERA, .251 BAA, 1.26 WHIP
Ah, but those stats can be deceiving, let’s look a little closer.
1st Half: 3.24 FIP, 2.68 K/BB, .270 BABIP, 54.9 GB%
2nd Half: 2.32 FIP, 3.81 K/BB, .340 BABIP, 58.1 GB%
Bet you didn’t see that coming.
.340 BABIP in the second half? Holy Toledo, Batman. Burnett induced more ground balls, improved his K/BB and FIP, but the BABIP sky rocketed which hurt his ERA, BAA and WHIP. In actuality, he had a better second half than first. Regardless, it looks like he’s decided to chill in Monkton this season rather than suit up.
If he is in fact finished, I have to think that the Orioles will sign Bronson Arroyo. He’ll improve their statistically lowly rotation, but isn’t as appealing of a candidate as Burnett — despite the awesome hair.
Arroyo is more of a fly ball pitcher (35.3 FB% in 2013, 24.2% for A.J.), which honestly scares the daylights out of me in Camden Yards. But he’ll likely give the O’s 200 innings because that’s what he’s done in eight of the last nine innings.
Blah. Blah. Blah. You’ve read me yammer on about all of this before.
In my never ending quest to remain optimistic about the Orioles, I began pondering about Kevin Gausman. The young righty threw 47.2 innings for the O’s in 2013, mostly in relief (5 GS).
Gausman’s stats from a season ago don’t look pretty: 5.66 ERA (75 ERA+), 1.343 WHIP, 9.6 H/9, 2.5 BB/9.
Much like Burnett, Gausman actually performed a bit better than the numbers indicated. Also like Burnett, Gausman is a tattoo enthusiast (fun fact).
2013 Season: 3.99 FIP, 3.77 K/BB, .328 BABIP, 42.0 GB%
Of course, he performed much better in relief than as a starter.
Starter: 5.85 FIP, 3.33 K/BB, .351 BABIP, 36.7 GB%
Reliever: 2.00 FIP, 4.14 K/BB, .296 BABIP, 50.0 GB%
Again, you see some inflation in Gausman’s statistics due to the high BABIP as a starter. However, his improved K/BB and GB% helped to cut his FIP by more than half.
The projections on Gausman for 2014 are even more encouraging.
2013: 47.2 IP, 5.66 ERA, 3.99 FIP, 9.25 K/9, 2.45 BB/9
ZiPS: 147.1 IP, 4.28 ERA, 3.79 FIP, 7.85 K/9, 2.18 BB/9
Steamer: 144.0 IP, 3.97 ERA, 3.77 FIP, 7.95 K/9, 2.86 BB/9
An improved Gausman, who many project to be the Orioles future number two starter behind potential ace Dylan Bundy (I said I was trying to be optimistic, remember?), could prove to be even more influential than the starter they sign on the free agent market. That doesn’t mean they still don’t need that other guy though.
Image Credit: Au Kirk
Good God, Orioles, throw us a freaking bone. Give us somthing to give us some kind of false hope, SOMETHING.
Zach, I’m with you 100% on this.The O’s need sign Burnett or Arroyo, and hand Gausman the keys to the car for another rotation spot. As for Norris, long relief with an occasional start as needed.
I agree, John. I think Norris is probably best suited in a relief role.
I think Norris would be our best in house closer. Great stuff over 3 innings so one inning I think he could be lights out. I trust Jim Johnson lady year more then I trust Tommy homerun hunter in closing scenario. I think Santana would be best option to sign
Hadn’t thought about Norris as closer. Hunter cut his HR/9 in half last season. Only bad part about Santana is that the O’s would have to forfeit their first round pick.
Zach, with your comment on Santana. Is there any better draft prospects you see that could be potentially better then what Santana could bring? He is still 5 years shy of arroyo, and though hunter may have dropped his hr/9 in half he still relies on the fastball to much which isn’t great in a homerun friendly park as our Camden yards. Norris has a better pitch selection and better command
Norris and Hunter actually had identical HR/9 last season (1.1).
As for the draft pick, it’s really not about a drafting a guy that can help them soon. That’s much more of a football approach. I would be fine with the Orioles giving away a draft pick to sign a true impact player, I’m just not sure Santana is that guy.
Buck’s been asked if Tommy’s his closer, but the closest he gets to committing is to say, “He’s a candidate.” Norris is an interesting option, and (although it won’t happen) if the O’s sign a couple of decent starters, Gausman would be a tremendous closer, at least as far as stuff goes–some truly filthy pitches.
The only thing with Kevin would be whether he’s be ready to be thrust into the ninth pressure cooker. I’m betting he could do it, but Showalter–who knows how to fit the pieces of the puzzle where they best belong–doesn’t bet when it comes to getting the best players on the field. I don’t think he’s going to need to go to a closer by committee solution; someone’s going to step up.