Week 9 Recap
Well your boy struck again. This time isn’t wasn’t a complete clean sheet as the Raiders remembered they were the Raiders and let Nick Foles do his best Peyton Manning impression to the tune of 7 TD passes in an Eagles beatdown in the Black Hole. But other than that, this guy has now posted a 6-0 Survivor Selections record over two weeks as well as an impressive (if I don’t say so myself) 5-1 ATS record in the NFL Selections department.
Week 10: Survivor Selections
1. Indianapolis Colts (-9.5) – Andrew Luck is absurd. Sorry, RG2.5 guys out there. The comparison between these two is less than two years old and it’s already over. That’s because Luck marched the troops in the 2nd half in Houston last Sunday night to this eleventh 4th-quarter comeback in only his 24th game overall. The Colts might not have Reggie Wayne. And even the Raiders are laughing at the Trent Richardson trade. But as long as #12 is behind center and spinning the pill with a chance to win, you can trust this team as your survivor selection vs. the hapless St. Louis Rams in Indy this Sunday.
Nuggets: The Colts are 9-1 vs. teams with losing records over their last 10 overall.
2. Tennessee Titans (-13.5) – Thank God Jacksonville is back off their much needed bye week. And what an off week it was for the Jags as 3 of their “players” were beat up outside an England Hotel AND their best offensive weapon (WR Justin Blackmon) is going back to rehab. Yes, its the Jags Show and we all should be benefiting from it. Plus, if you haven’t used the Titans (and why would you have) this is the best spot on the calendar to do so.
Nuggets: Jags are 1-8 in their last 9 following a loss of 14pts or more (lost 42-10 to the Niners two weeks ago).
3. NY Giants (-9.5) – I know what your are saying, “Has Jab been sipping off the Tito’s Vodka already this morning?” Not saying it hasn’t happened before (see Cornhole Tournament last Saturday), but no not this morning. I was leaning towards taking the Packers in this spot before Aaron Rodgers banged up his collarbone and will miss at least 3 weeks. So with that being said, it’s the 2-6 Giants as my 3rd selection and here’s why. The Raiders just were pounded real good last week AT HOME to an Eagles team that just weeks earlier lost to this Giants team in Philly. Add in the cross country flight and 1pm start to a rejuvenated Tom Coughlin coached team that has won 2 straight after dropping their first 6 games of the season and you see why I like this spot for the G-Men.
Nuggets: The Giants have won 6 out of the last 7 games under Coughlin coming off a bye week. The Raiders are 0-3 on the road this season while being outscored 82-45 in the process.
Week 10 NFL Selections
Arizona Cardinals (-1) – I usually only use the Cards as a selection when they are catching points in the desert, but it’s close enough. This team is flying under the radar and at 4-4 have a micro-sweat of making the playoffs. They are also 3-1 at home and a solid 5-3 ATS record overall. The Texans were game in their last game, but still came from ahead to lose at home to Andrew Luck and the Colts. Add in the uncertainty of their Head Coach Gary Kubiak to their issues and I fully expect to see Carson Palmer and Larry Fitzgerald throwing high-5’s come last Sunday afternoon in Glendale.
Nuggets: The Cardinals are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Texans are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) – Again, I’m not drinking this morning. I promise. But I understand you wondering as I’m selecting an 0-8 football team as a selection. But hear me out on this one. First, I LOVE home dogs on MNF. Second, the Dolphins are a dumpster fire after the bullying stories have come ashore this week in South Beach. Yes the Dolphins are grasping for a Wild Card playoff spot and a win over their northern neighbors would assist in that, but I’m just not seeing it. The Bucs were up 21-zippy on the Seahawks just last week in a building no one wins in. And although they did end up losing, they have been playing competitive football of late. So I’m not sure this selection is of a product of how good the Bucs are or how in trouble I think the ‘Fins are going forward, but give me the FG and let’s do some work.
Nuggets: The Bucs are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 November games at Raymond James Stadium.
Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans (Over 53) – Like the Captain of the USS Baltimore Sports Report likes to tell you on the video, “Jab’s wheelhouse is totals”. That has been true of late for sure as your boy has hit four straight in this spot. Going back to the well once again this week with the Cowboys as they cashed us another winning over total last week vs. the Vikings. This week they head to NOLA in the Sunday Night game to take on an angry Saints squad coming off an abysmal game vs. the Jets (had the Jets BTW). Drew Brees loves prime time games, having posting some of his best games on the National Stage. Remember Week 4 on MNF when Brees dropped 400 yds and 4 TDs on the Dolphins, while flying over the total in a 38-17 win? I’m not saying the Saints will blow out the ‘Boys, but I fully expect to be counting my chips early in the 4th quarter as this one could turn into a shootout.
Nuggets: Coming off losses, Brees has averaged 4.3 TDs per game the following week. The Saints have gone over the total in their last 3 games overall and 5 out of their last 6.
Well I was wrong on the Browns game for sure. The John Harbaugh love affair is really starting to take some body blows in town. This team has the worst rushing average in NFL HISTORY through 8 games (2.7 per). Joe Flacco did try and rally the troops in the 2nd half last week, but time and time again it was the pathetic offensive line that let him and the team down once again. Now they return to the building Ray Lewis and Ed Reed built to take on the AFC North division leading Cincinnati Bengals (6-3). If the Ravens have any hope of giving their purple-cameo wearing fans a playoff sweat again this year, then winning this one is paramount.
That could be easier wrote than done with the way the Ravens have played of late. No push up front, means more shot-gun looks for Flacco and the offense. Problem with that is, if we know they can’t and won’t run the damn ball, don’t you think Marvin Lewis and the Bengals coaching brass think the same thing? Expect a ton of blitzes from the Bengals front 7 and if Flacco can get the ball out quickly it could be advantageous for WR’s Torrey Smith and Touchdown Marlon Brown. But if he can’t and the rushing attack continues to struggle it could be a long day for Ravens nation in a building they haven’t seen many regular season losses. The Ravens are desperate. The Bengals want to bury the defending champs in front of their fans. What will give? Give me the better team coming off a loss with 10 days to prepare in this one. Bengals 28-17.