Like the great 80’s rapper Kool Moe Dee used to brilliantly spit, “How do you like me now”?
That’s right, yours truly was as hot last weekend in the NFL as Scarlett Johansson was in a that 2005 masterpiece “Match Point”.
But I will point out that I went 10-3 overall ATS this past week in a year-long pool I participate in which brings my overall record through week 10 of the NFL picking every game ATS to a documented 80-67 (54.5%).
So enough about last week, let’s check the week 11 card.
- Survivor: 20-7, 74%
- ATS: 13-13-1, 50%
- Ravens SU: 8-2, 80%
Week 11 Survivor Selections
Miami Dolphins (-6) – The NFL card doesn’t have a home team winner standing out like Halle Berry in a crowd of dudes. Not this week. So with that being said, I think I will lean towards a home team that you probably haven’t used to this point , that is if you are still alive and kicking. The Dolphins host the Bills of Buffalo/Toronto on Thursday Night Football where some of the worst football has been played. See the Bengals last Thursday as an example. The ‘Fins are coming off a tough last second loss at Detroit, while the Bills potential playoff hopes were probably smashed like a Nelson Cruz dinger in their home loss to the Chiefs last weekend. Home teams (outside the Bengals) have usually fared very well in these late season Thursday night matchups for a mired of reasons and I don’t see that changing here. And although that won’t be an official ATS selection, I do like the ‘Fins to win laying the 5 as well.
Nuggets: The favorite in this series is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Home team is 4-1 ATS in last 5.
San Diego Chargers (-10) – The only reason I’m using my Bolts as a selection this week is because they are playing the Jaguars of the Bay Area, the Oakland Raiders at home-coming off a bye week. My “boys” have dominated this series especially at the artist formerly known at the “Murph” winning the last 6 out of 7 SU. This is your best spot to use my boys if you haven’t used them yet.
Green Bay Packers (-4.5) – Is Aaron Rodgers still throwing TD passes? I say that because as you know he dropped 6 in ONE HALF last Sunday night at Lambeau on the Bears. This week he will probably have to play an entire game as the Eagles come to the Big Cheese Head. Like I said, it’s not an easy survivor week, so using the Packers might get a couple raised eye brows from people. But I still think Mark Sanchez is a bum and his true colors will show this week in the City of Cheese.
Week 11 ATS Selections
Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5) – Who are the real Seahawks? Are they the defending champs that skull-dragged the NY Giants last week at home? Or, are they the team that lost at home to Dallas and at St Louis? Probably somewhere in the middle, IMO. So I’m just guessing that traveling to one of the toughest venues in the NFL take on a white-hot Chiefs team isn’t exactly what the doctor ordered for that mad scientist Pete Carroll? The Chiefs have won 6 out of their last 7 including pounding the Patriots in the process. I’ll take my chances with Andy Reid and company in this one.
Nuggets: Kansas City is 7-2 ATS. Seahawks are 1-6 in the last 7 meetings.
New York Giants (+5) – Public money alert!!! Like last week when I told you that over 80% of the money was on the Steelers at the Jets, here is another value spot. The Giants are terrible. Conversely, the Niners are coming off a miracle season saving OT win at New Orleans. So why is it that this line is under a TD? Seems to me that in this week to week league, the public is falling into another trap here backing the Niners to the tune of 73% so far. Whenever I see that, I go the other way. Go Eli Manning.
Nuggets: Niners are 1-7 in last 8 meetings with NYG.
New Orleans Saints/Cincinnati Bengals OVER (50) – The last time we saw the Red Rocket (Andy Dalton) he was putting up a QB rating of 2 vs. the Browns at HOME. That was 10 days ago and although he looked like Ryan Leaf in that one, I don’t think he is that terrible. Add in a putrid Saints secondary that made Colin Kaepernick looked like Steve Young from the right side and you can see why I like the over in this one. I know what I’ll get with Drew Brees and Jimmy Graham and I fully expect to see AJ Green scoring at least one TD as well. This one has shootout written all over it inside the comfy confines of the Superdome.
Nuggets: Over is 4-0 Bengals last 4 games after losses. Over is 5-0 in Saints last 5 games on field turf.