Another good week for your boy.
3-0 in our survivor selections, even if the Packers gave us a scare in the first half vs. the Jets. Washington beat the tar out of Jacksonville (who doesn’t) and Denver just did enough to beat a down Kansas City team.
ATS wise, we were a respectable 2-1, with only the Falcons letting us down as a 5.5 point dog. The Pats won going away and a big second half on MNF by both the Eagles and Colts pushed the total over the 53 we needed.
Here are our updated numbers through two weeks:
- Survivor Selections: 5-1. 83%
- ATS Selections: 3-2-1 .53%
Week 2 Survivor Selections
New Orleans Saints (-9.5) – If you had the Saints starting the season off 0-2, with a loss to Browns, then please go buy a lottery ticket. That because most NFL “experts” thought this was a potential Super Bowl team and based on history teams that start the season 0-2 make the playoffs around 30% of the time. Drew Brees and company shouldn’t have any trouble getting the train back on the tracks this week in their home opener vs. the Adrian Peterson-less Minnesota Vikings. The Saints are one of the best home teams in the NFL (only the Seahawks and Ravens have been better the past 5 years) and going 0-3 isn’t on their radar. Matt Cassel was terrible last week in their 30-7 skull dragging at home to the Patriots, so I don’t expect him to get any better in front of an angry, lubed up Who Dat’ crowd. Saints roll.
Nugget: Vikings are 0-5 ATSin their last 5 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5) – I guess the Bengals are legit. If you are a Nuggets historian, you know we had the Falcons last week as they were boat-raced by the Bengals in the Queen City. This week it’s Titans of Tennessee turn in the Jungle to get pounded real good. Andy Dalton might not be a good playoff QB, but his regular season numbers are Peyton Manning lite. Add in a under rated defense and you can see why I like the Bengals to move to 3-0 with an easy home win over the Titans. I mean the Titans lost at home to the Cowboys last week and only scored 10 pts off one of the worst defenses in the league.
Nugget: Bengals are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games. Bengals are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games in week 3.
New England Patriots (-14.5) – This one could get ugly early and often. The Raiders of whatever Bay area city they are claiming this week might just be the worst team this side of Jacksonville. They actually were competitive in their first game at the Jets in NY, but last week they were curb stomped by the Texans. Now they have to fly east again for the second time in two weeks and take on the Patriots in their home opener. No need to analyze this one too much, but just a quick reminder. The Pats did drop at home game in week 2 in 2012 to the Arizona Cardinals as a 15 point favorite. Just warning you.
Nugget: Pats are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games. The favorite in this series is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
Week 3 ATS Selections
Indianapolis Colts (-7) – I know what you are saying, “Jab the Colts are 0-2, so how can they be laying a TD on the road?” Great question. The only answer should crystallize it for you. They are playing the Jags of Jacksonville in the house Mark Burrell built. All bad schtick aside, the Colts are too good to be 0-2, let alone 0-3 with a loss to the Jags on their resume. I expect Andrew Luck to get up early (which they have struggled with so far this year) and win going away. Being only a TD favorite is a product of the Jags being at home and the fact that the Colts defense has been awful the first two weeks. Problem with that logic is the Colts have faced two of the best offenses in the NFL (Den, Philly). The Jags couldn’t score on ‘Bama right now. Indy in a rout.
Nugget: Colts are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing record. Colts are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. the AFC South.
Chicago Bears (+3) – The Jets must have pictures of Roger G on their phone. That has to be the only reason they are getting MNF shine and a home game at that. I kid, because I love @PatGuth321. But seriously, should a team that beat the Raiders by 5 at home and lost to the Packers after blowing a 21-3 lead really be a 3 point favorite over anybody? I’m not so sure. I personally had the Bears as a SU winner last Sunday night in SF as they were getting a TD. The Bears are really dangerous in the passing game and based on the second half Aaron Rodgers had last week vs. the Jets secondary (is Jordy Nelson still running?), I’m liking Jay Culter’s chances to succeed this week. And I’m catching a FG? Give me ‘da Bears.
Nugget: Bears are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 head to head meetings.
Green Bay/Detroit (over 52.5) – Calvin Johnson. Aaron Rodgers. Reggie Bush. You get the point. This one could be a track meet as these two division rivals meet in the Motor City. This series has seen plenty of points scored and I don’t anticipate that changing this week. The Packers are coming off dropping 31 on a good Jets defense last week, while the Lions are coming off an offensive stinker in Carolina (losing 24-7). What I’m saying is you aren’t going to keep the Lions offense down two weeks in a row, plus the return to the friendly confines of Ford Field where they dropped 35 on the Giants in week 1. Like last week, this is a good over to get early in the week. Even though it’s a 1pm Sunday kick, over lovers will be shoving their chips all in on this total early Sunday morning.
Nugget: Over is 6-0 in Packers last 6 games in September. Over is 4-0 in Packers last 4 road games. Over is 5-1 in Packers last 6 games following a ATS loss.
This one screams trap game for the Ravens as they travel to the mistake by the lake. The Browns are coming off a great comeback win over the Saints behind the great Terrance West (Towson Pride) and QB Bobby Hoyer. They also almost came back from a 24 point deficit in week one at Pittsburgh to upset the Steelers.
The Ravens dominated the aforementioned Steelers in-game that feels like a month ago at the Big Crab Cake. So which Ravens team is it? The one that dominated the Steelers are the one that was dominated by the Bengals in week 1 (the score wasn’t a good indication)?
I think they are somewhere in the middle, but the sharps in Vegas think they are at least 5 points better than the Browns at this point. That’s because they opened as a 1 point road favorite that has already been pushed to 2 at print time. That is why I think it screams trap game.
It’s not that the Browns are a potential playoff team, but for some reason I think they will make enough plays in this one and come out on top. No blowout here, but I just like how the Browns are playing and I still think the Ravens are a work in progress on offense. They should get DB Lardarius Webb back for this one, which will be a huge help.
But if they can’t stop the run (they did a good job on the Steelers RB’s), it will provide Hoyer with play-action opportunity down field and he’s shown he can stand in and make all the throws. additionally, Hoyer hasn’t thrown an INT in his last 140 some odd passes.
Rooting for the home team, but think it’s the Browns who come out on top.