Tillman is currently in his first year of arbitration earning $4.3 million. He has two remaining years of arbitration available and the given salary is expected to increase, unless Tillman falls off in his performance. That’s unlikely based on his performance over the past three years yielding a record of 38-16 with a 3.42 ERA with an impressive 7.1 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9.
However, there have always been a question if Tillman is worth the cost of a top of the rotation pitcher. Tillman has consistently outperformed his fielding-independent-pitching metrics, which was 4.22 over the past three seasons. Many Orioles fans (…and beat writers) have long discounted that statistic and credited the team’s defense for this discrepancy. For the rest of the league, this could be a concern for other teams that would be interested in Tillman once he hits free agency.
If the Orioles are looking to extend Tillman, I would imagine that a four year deal would be necessary allowing the Orioles to get two additional years of free agency. If you’re looking for a further breakdown of what the contract may look like, I highly recommend checking out Camden Depot for a further in-depth analysis.