It’s hard to imagine that Chris Tillman will only be 21 when the season starts in April. It’s even harder to imagine that the O’s got this kid in a package that included Adam Jones and George Sherrill and others. So much talent. So much potential. This is the season that we get to see if this kid is for real.
The previous 2 seasons saw Chris Tillman dominate at the various levels of the farm system. Whether it was a AA Bowie or AAA Norfolk, Tillman was striking out a ton of hitters. While his strike out numbers steadied at 9-10 per 9 innings, his control seemed to strengthen and his walk numbers dwindled over that time period. His numbers were so phenomenal that when Rich Hill went on the disabled list in late July, it was a no-brainer to have Tillman be called up to the big hill.
One thing was for sure, the major leagues are definitely not the minor leagues and vice versa. Tillman quickly looked a bit over-matched in his first outing verses the Royals. He quickly turned that around the next week against the Blue jays when he pitched 6.2 innings and only gave up 2 runs. He had a few more gems before it was all said and done including 6 hit, 1 run performance against Tampa Bay near the end of the season. While there was moments of success, he struggled to consistently dominate like he had done at the lower levels.
As Daniel Moroz (Camden Crazies) pointed out in his perspective on Tillman
It was the home runs – the thing I had been worried about from his minor league numbers – that killed him. You just can’t succeed in the majors giving up 2.08 HR/9, and even adjusting his home runs allowed per flyball down from 15.2% to a more normal rate, he still has a 5.40 expected FIP according to The Hardball Times. Tillman will need to either get more strike-outs or allow fewer flyballs to stay in the majors – and he’ll need to do both to become an effective pitcher.
So what to expect this year? Well, I am projecting Chris to be the 5th starter. This should allow him plenty of attempts to get his bearings year. I am assuming that the team’s offense will improve therefore we should see better win totals out of him. What I am hoping for is an improvement in his overall ERA. Last season, he finished with a 5.40 . This season, I am hoping Rick Kranitz can work his magic and help him lower that ERA at least a point. I am also hoping that we can see him increase those strikeout numbers. Whether that is finding better location with his pitches or developing some movement on his fastball, some adjustments will need to be made.
There is little doubt in my mind that this kid will be great in the upcoming year. Right now, I am just hoping that next year he will be good.
Guys like Tillman and Matusz are the reasons we as Oriole fans should have hope. It also explains why we believe the Orioles are in better hands under McPhail than we were under the three headed monster of Flannagan-Beattie-Duquette. Look at the prospects McPhail has brought in, including Tillman. Some may say "we've been done this road before with prospects" and that is a fair argument, but I think this time is different…we'll see!
I can't believe that Tillman will start the season at 21. He showed glimpses of greatness last season, but was brought up pretty early. I hope that he can become consistent in 2010.
Z Man. Sorry, but there's zero chance of young CT becoming consistent in 2010, not consistently positive anyway. With history as our guide, the one thing tall pitchers can not due is consistently repeat their deliveries until they mid-20's / third or fourth year in the Majors (see Halladay, Doc, and Unit, The Big), if ever (see Cabrera, Daniel). Sads is spot on assessing CT as the fifth starter…I see: 8 – 11, 4.78, with 168 innings pitched in 2010. Then 11 – 11 with a 4.41 in 189 IP in 2011, before we get to a "break out" in 2012 that looks something like 14 – 9 with a 4.09 in 206 IP. It'll come, but not in 2010 and not at age 21. He's just too damn tall.
I sure hope the organization has higher hopes than The Bruz does.
2012 as Tillman's breakout season?
That's FAR too late in my opinion.
There is no way the remaining fans of this team are gonna accept 2 more years of waiting on these top guys.
Fair or not, that's the reality IMO.
Huh…never thought that height had as much to do with it as you said, but it makes sense. I'm excited about these guys, but I hope they didn't bring them up to quick. Although I said that about Matusz last season too and he was lights out.
Tillman's fastball was alarmingly straight last season.
He, along with Matusz, MUST pan out quickly for this team.
I realize Halladay, Randy Johnson, and Daniel Cabrera represent a small sample, but then again, there just haven't been many pitchers at 6'5" or better…Nor is there a long list of 6'5" hitters…Halladay didn't win double figures 'till his fifth year in the Bigs…Neither did Randy Johnson…No way CT wins 10 games this year…Amazingly, Daniel won 12 and 10 games his first two years, so maybe there is hope? Just don't go looking for 13 – 15 wins from him anytime soon!
Ah I don't know that D-Cab's numbers are a fair comparison. I've never seen such a streaky player. He should such great talent at times and stunk for a while other times.