While the Orioles have yet to officially sign and introduce Kevin Gregg as their latest offseason acquisition, it is heavily rumored that Orioles and Gregg have agreed to a 2-year $10 million deal. Editors Note- this move was made official yesterday. This rumored signing is puzzling to me given that rebuilding teams generally shouldn’t spend money of veteran relief pitchers. Over a full relief season of about 80 innings with an average number of closing opportunities Gregg should be worth ~0.75 wins above a replacement (WAR) relief pitcher, or about $3.33 millon over a full season. Given that Gregg’s salary is $10 million over two seasons I don’t see how he will be worth the money the Orioles are paying him.
Despite recording 37 saves last year, Gregg doesn’t have the stuff typically associated with closers. He throws three pitches: a 90-92 mph fastball, a 80-83 mph slider and 86-83 mph cut fastball. Given that relief pitchers have such small sample sizes each season (~70 innings) it is difficult to determine which of these is Gregg’s best pitch. However, it is safe to say that Gregg’s fastball is declining. Since 2007 the value of his fastball has fallen every year. In 2007 it was well above average and throughout the 2008 and 2009 seasons it gradually decreased and finally landed as a below average pitch for the first time in 2010.
Gregg also hasn’t had a full-season xFIP (an advanced era-esque statistic) under 4.00 since 2004; the Major League Baseball (MLB) average xFIP for relief pitchers was 4.25 in 2010. While Gregg is capable of posting above average strike out rates (~ a strikeout per inning since 2007), he also struggles with his control (~ a walk every 2 innings since 2007). When you strip away Gregg’s saves, a measure that is more a function of opportunity than skill, he is a slightly better than average relief pitcher. Unfortunately, he is a slightly better than average relief pitcher who the Orioles are paying $10 million over the next two seasons.
I understand that after trading away David Hernandez, Kam Mickolio, Brett Jacobson and Jim Hoey that the Orioles desperately need relief pitchers. However, I do not understand why the Baltimore front office felt the need to overspend on a “brand name” closer to fill the void; especially after the disastrous season Mike Gonzalez had last year ($5.4 million for 0.7 WAR).
This is the first decision the Orioles’ front office has made this offseason that irks me. Obtaining Mark Reynolds, J. J. Hardy and Derrek Lee showcased a strategy where undervalued players where being targeted and obtained at undervalued prices. The signing of Kevin Gregg is exactly the opposite. Here, the Orioles are over paying an over valued player who will be unable to earn his salary in terms of (WAR) because he is only a slightly above average relief pitcher.
I'm puzzled as to why you find this puzzling. Our rotation is almost definitely going to be Guthrie, Matusz, Bergy, Arrieta, and Tillman/Britton. Aside from Guthrie, that's a whole lot of youth and inexperience. What do you surround young pitchers with if you want them to succeed? Defense and a solid bullpen to back them up. Not to mention the offensive improvement Hardy, Lee, and Reynolds bring to the table, they all bring considerably better defense than their predecessor. Though injuries can and probably will play a factor, we go into the season with one of the more formidable bullpens in MLB (Koji, Gregg, Gonzo, JJ, and Berken are a good start).
Don't count us out yet. Everyone is 0-0 right now, our rotation showed it's upside in the 2nd half last year, the bullpen should be very good if healthy, and there are no weak spots in the lineup. Though we don't have the "big bat," we're now one of the deeper lineups out there. It would take a small miracle to actually contend, but we should finally expect 82+ wins.
<<we go into the season with one of the more formidable bullpens in MLB>>
Good gosh man, take off the orange-colored glasses and look around you (and you don't have to look far). The Red Sox have Jonathan Papelbon, Daniel Bard, Bobby Jenks, and Dan Wheeler. The Yankees have Mariano Rivera, Rafael Soriano, Joba Chamberlain and Dave Robertson.
So true.
Just in our division!
We should "fully expect" 82 wins? A minimum 16 game improvement?
The January predictions have started with a bang!
Of course, they'll end with a thud come the end of the season.
Whats funny is that I could rewind to a year ago and hear the same things.
We were 34-23 under Buck. Roberts will now be fully in the swing of things. So we've improved at every position in the infield, and you have to think Wieters will also be considerably better than last year. That's fine – there are valid reasons to believe the Orioles are on the verge of turning this thing around, so I'll be the optimist and drink my orange kool-aid, and wear my orange sunglasses while you go on beating your wife, punishing your kids, and giving random people you see on the street the finger.
Guess who's back, back again…Mark is back, tell a friend…Guess who's back, guess who's back, guess who's back…
Unfortunately, we're in the same division as benchmark Sox and Yanks. That doesn't invalidate my point though. Find me 10 MLB teams that would straight up swap bullpens with. Assuming health of course, I'd say we're easily top 10, which is a considerable improvement upon last year.
Same old song and dance. People were on here last year at this time saying the O's lineup was top 10.
Signing bullpen guys is ALWAYS a crap shoot and one that the O's have lost more than won. See Timlin, Jamie Walker, Baez, and Gonzalez. Pens are best built from within.
And the fact that we do have to deal with the Yankees and Red Sox does invalidate your point about expecting a winning season.
Will the pen be top 10? I guess it's possible.
Will the Orioles have a winning season? No way.
Reality check:
Koji Uehara is injury-prone, stuff-challenged, and still has not fully proven himself as a closer (remember Ryan Kohlmeier)?
Kevin Gregg has a career ERA over 4, and his WHIP has risen each of the last 3 years.
Mike Gonzalez is coming off a major injury.
Jim Johnson will be pitching this year with a torn ligament in his throwing elbow.
Jeremy Accardo had just 6 AL IP last year; he wasn't great at AAA either (44 IP, 52 H, 26K, 3.48)
Alberto Simon is fighting a manslaughter charge.
This bullpen stands to approach league average, maybe be a bit below. For it to be any better than that, a lot of serious breaks would have to go their way. Everything always looks good on paper this time of year…like grabbing Jeremy Accardo off the scrap heap, and then assuming that he'll be a reliable reliever in 2011…but you simply can't bank on every player reaching their career best, or improving over last year, or staying healthy 100% of the time.
For a team that states they are rebuilding, the signings this year have been puzzling. The front office seems to be up to their same old ways of buying cheap in hopes of gaining some momentum.They would love nothing more if they found the reincarnation of Jeff Conine and Ty Wiggington on the cheap. Then if they come up with 75 wins, they'll call it success and will celebrate until the cows come home.
Its almost as if they want to pretend to upgrade, then complain to the league that they can't overcome and force the league to restructure them to another division. It ain't happening! This team needs to get real. I'm tired of reading about their blahzay news. As I'm writing this, I feel like this is similar to the movie Major League. Angelos seems to trying to squeeze this team.
Give us a break will you? We have stunk for so long that anything we do right now looks like improvement. In a way, all we are doing right now is trying to make sure we have major league talent on the roster. The guys we've added, including Kevin Gregg, are hopefully major league talent. With Buck on board we also have a major league manager. Even if we finish .500 we could easily end up in 4th place in our division. We've got to get back to respectablility before we can hope for more. We have a little hope now – let us enjoy the off-season moves. We'll see how they turn out. I'm looking forward to going to Camden Yards a few times this year to watch the progress of the Birds. Thanks to Andy McPhail and Peter Angelos for possibly spending a little more than they should have for Kevin Gregg. Thanks to Kevin Gregg and the others for coming to Baltimore. Go Birds!
Yes, thanks so much Andy and Peter!
Give you a break?
I've been asking this organization for a break for over a decade.
I refuse to ignore reality in order to believe in false hope.
If you choose to believe there is a plan or that this team can be .500, more power to you.
But please, don't chastise those who think this team is still gonna be far below .500 and back in the same place this time next year.
It's truly like Groundhog day. Every year I hear the same thing about improvements and every year they stink.
That's not opinion. That's a fact.
Wow Mark, it's January 14th the last I checked, so quit being so negative. There were signs after Buck came in that we can turn this thing around, and I like our offseason moves. So let me be with my orange kool-aid and sunglasses, and go back to beating your wife, punishing your kids, and giving random people you see on the street the finger.
And really…is starting a new paragraph after every sentence really necessary? No, it's just annoying. And that's not opinion, that's a fact.
My first time on this post.. Sadly I too have to be negative. There just isnt a choice. I'm so sick of hearing about overvalue/overpay. Its not YOUR money. they need to overpay to get anyone halfway decent to come here. Frankly the Derek Lee signing is the wrong direction. Another over the hill fill in. So what if he has a good yr. He's not the long term answer. And dont say Prince Fielder. He isnt coming here. We should have traded for another teams power hitting prospect for 1st base. As it turns we cant/wont " buy the bats" , because unless we WAY overpay they wont come here as FA. It would have to be a trade and even though we've " grown the arms" , we really havent grown that many
Clearly you have never played any sport at any advanced level when you state that saves are more a measure of opportunity than skill. You have never shot a game winning free throw, made a match winning putt, nor attempted get a ball over a small rubber object while a talented individual is trying to smash it down your throat. All this while people are yelling and screaming. It is a skill.
I agree with Mark on the Orioles… Actually always have…
The O's make a decent move by trading nothing for Mark Reynolds which I thought was a good move.
Then they sign a 36 year old, end of his career Derrek Lee
I like the Hardy trade… But…
This time next year the O's will again be looking for a 1st sacker and SS
Pitching staff wasn't upgraded at all…
A broken down Roberts at 2nd who won't last the season…. Trust me on this, when you have a back injury you cannot do what he will be doing at 2nd
Then RGB talks about an upgraded bullpen???? Are you nuts???
Wow, this is my first article to ever get this much comment attention; I'm flattered!
Just to quickly restate my position:
What I dislike the most about the signing is the money. The Orioles are paying for Gregg's 37 saves last season (a function of opportunity more than skill) not his underlying talent – slightly above average. There are relief pitchers still available who they would be able to give much less money to (~2 years, 4-5 million) that have the same skill set as Gregg. The chief difference is that these pitchers didn't accrue 37 saves last year and thus they cost less in the FA market.
RGB – I love your optimism and I share it going into the 2011 season. However, given our spending level, every financial move we make needs to be a net win and I just don't see how the Gregg signing is one.
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