The latest Orioles pitching acquisition is unheralded and over-performing Justin Duchscherer. Through his last 9 seasons as a middle reliever and starting pitcher, Duchscherer has struck out 6.8 batters per nine innings while also limiting walks (2.4 walks per nine innings). Duchsherer has a slow fastball clocking in at 85.9 mph but an extremely diverse array of pitches which he has excellent control over (2.85 strikeouts per walk). He has posted a 3.13 ERA over those same seasons, with a WHIP of 1.14. He uses every arrow in his quiver, throwing his fastball 43.3% of the time, a 82.5 mph cutter 19.7% of the time, a 70.1 mph breaking ball 26.7% of the time, a 82.7 mph slider 7.1% of the time and a 80.0 mph change-up 3.2% of the time. The graph below does an excellent job of highlighting Duchsherer’s control. The graph shows Duchsherer’s ability to locate his pitches on both edges of the strikezone and avoid the center of the plate from (0.5 to -0.5 feet). In this sense it is fair to compare Duchscherer to Gregg Maddux, one of the best pitchers of the last 25 years.
However, Duchsherer has had a storied history of injuries including hip issues in 2008 and elbow surgery prior to the 2009 season. These have kept him off the field for large parts of each of the last three seasons and limited his contributions. Still, because he doesn’t overpower hitters, the physical injuries are much less of a concern than they would be for another pitcher. Alas, the the same soft-tossing prowess that limits the effects of previous injuries on his ability also caps his upside. Orioles fans need to keep in mind that Duchersher is incapable of overpowering hitters and while he could be extremely useful he is not a front of the rotation pitcher. Baseball-reference.com lists Paul Byrd as Duchscherer’s most comparable pitcher by age. This seems to be a reasonable projection for Duchscherer as an Oriole and an efficient signing at $700K to $ 1.1M.
Duchscherererererererererererer.
Its going to be a really fun name to scream at the taciturn tv in both praise and anger.
Overarararararararateteteteteteteddddddddddd….. Injuryryryryryryryryryryryryryryryryryry…..
Overrated when compared to Paul Byrd, really?!? The guys statistics are fantastic and his contract is extremely cheap. It seems like a tough signing not to like. The Orioles have replacements for him in the rotation and he certainly has a better skill set than previous 4th or 5th starters (Adam Eaton I'm looking at you).
He's overrated because everyone wants to make him a starter instead of the reliever he's been… He's pitched 5 games in the last 2 years and you don't think the O's and the fans are overrating him? Plus he's been injured, another necessity when being signed by the O's… You have to be old, have had a significant injury, are a cheap signing, only want a 1 year contract, and haven't pitched much in the past few years to be signed by the O's…
The only people gushing over this guy is the O's… Do you think for a minute that if he was goina be a hit that the Yankees, Red Sox and other teams wouldn't have been beating his door down??? Just can't wait till the O's sign Mark Prior! Guys come to the O's because nobody else wants them or will only give them a minor league contract or only a million or two…. Its already documented that Lee doesn't want to be here and Vlad doesn't either but he came because the O's gave him $8mil….
I stated last year that Tejada, Atkins, Millwood would be gone before the end of the year and most likely the trade deadline. I was right on 2/3… This year I say Lee, Vlad, Dutch, Gonzalez, and possibly Hardy will be gone by the trade deadline…
"Over his last 169.2 innings pitched, Justin Duchscherer’s ERA+, a measure of how much above average (100) a pitcher is, is 160. Looking at other pitchers with similar innings pitched totals, we see that Scott Baker’s ERA+ was 92, Wade Davis’ was 97 and Phil Hughes’ was 102. The difference of course, is that these three pitchers accumulated those innings in 2010, whereas you have to go back to 2008 for Duchscherer’s innings count that high." borrowed from: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/40784/
For almost no money and an incentive laden contract it is a good signing in my estimation. I certainly would not mind to see the O's move any of the players you mentioned, expcept maybe Hardy, for prospects at the deadline. The team is in dire need of young talent.
Ross – I like Hardy myself but you know as well as I do, the O's will not give him a multi-year contract for decent duckets… And Hardy will jack at least 20 dingers and 80 ribbies hitting at OPACY, then will want at least a 3 year, $24mil deal that the O's will not do… They'll let him go and sign 43 year old Omar Visquel to a one year deal…