It happens to us all. We end up in a tie in HR at the end of the week and look back and see that one HR that was left on our bench. How can you avoid it? First of all check your roster each day before the games start to make sure they are all playing. If someone isn’t in the lineup get them out of there. Try to keep your utility spots open until the last games for maximum flexibility.
Look at the matchups each day to determine who to start. If your using Yahoo simply click your player’s name and look under “Next Game: 4/8…” For Pujols it says Career vs. J. Sanchez 5 AB 4 H .800 AVG. Obviously this is a good matchup. Much better than Prince Fielder: Career vs. T. Hanson 11 AB 3 H .273 AVG. But always start your studs no matter how bad the numbers are. When your platooning positions this is the best way to go. But don’t forget about hot streaks. If a guy is on a tear like BJ Upton is right now, don’t bench him because he’s hitless against Edwin Jackson. Always start guys on hot streaks no matter what the matchup is like.
If your using my two start pitching strategy and are trying to determine which guys to pick up, split reading is very important. On Yahoo click your players name. Next choose “Split Stats.” Instead of just 2011 #’s click “Career.” Then scroll down to the vs. team names. Take a look at the two teams each guy is facing next week. If the numbers are above mediocre against both then they could be a good add. Again factor in hot streaks. You can also click “2011” and check and see how that pitcher is doing against that team this season for reassurance. If your still looking for another tie breaker between two pitchers click “Split Stats”, and look at “Away” and “Home”. If a player is at home and does very well there then you should be reassured. You can also click “Career” and scroll to the bottom to see how that pitcher pitches at each individual stadium.
Look at game logs and count up the number of recent quality starts a pitcher has. A quality start is 6 IP or more and 3 ER or less. If a pitcher has about 3/5 recent quality starts they could be a good add. So even a guy like Ross Ohlendorf who went 1-11 last year could have had streaks where he had 3/5 quality starts and was on a decent streak. The ideal two starter to pick up would be a guy who has thrown 3/5 recent quality starts, faces two teams he has a 4 era or less against, and is decent in the park he visits. Grabbing this guy and having him pitch twice for you next week could give you two quality starts, more k’s, and the chance for at least 1 win. These are all bonus stats that you acquire by cutting a guy who only would have gone once that week. These are little things you can do to help give your team the advantage each week.
You always want to have the pitching advantage. On Sunday count up the number of two start pitchers you and your opponent has for the next week, and count up the total number of starts you both have. If you are down 1 or 2 starts then make a move or 2 for 2 start pitchers. This will take you from being down 2 starts to having the same number. Now you have the chance to compete in wins and k’s for sure. Giving yourself the advantage every single week can give you the chance to beat better pitching staffs. Sometimes it doesn’t matter how good a staff is, it matters who has the most starters to put up numbers.
Good Pickups:
Jordan Walden – LAA Closer. He should have been picked up by now, but if he hasn’t been yet then pick him up right now. I said back in my closers blog that Walden was an allstar closer waiting to get the job. He is a flame throwing closer who tops 101 MPH and just took over the job for Fernando Rodney. He should make an immediate impact and will be an elite closer.
Carlos Quentin – CWS OF. Quentin has always had a high ceiling so at any point he can break out. He is off to a great start this year. Quentin is still young and has a whole lot of power potential. He was a former 6th round fantasy pick just 2 years ago after a nice breakout season. He had a bad year last year, but looks like he may bounce back. He’s worth a chance.
Logan Morrison – FLA OF. Morrison has started pretty good. He should be a nice .300 hitter. His power is still developing and is unknown. He’s a guy that can get you hits and RBI’s each day and can help improve your AVG each night while supplying some power.
Willie Bloomquist – ARI SS???? Not completely sold on Bloomquist. But then again I was never sold on Jose Bautista last year. Sometimes guys like this breakout unexplainably. Bloomquist is leading off and already has 5 SB. When Stephen Drew returns he will still be in the lineup and will gain eligibility at other positions. If your league doesn’t have a move limit and you need steals take a chance. Ride him while he’s hot and cut him if he begins to come back to earth.
Kyle McClellan – STL SP. Dave Duncan makes everyone a good pitcher. McClellan had a great first outing getting a quality start and 7 K’s. He is worth owning.
Possible 2 Start pickups for next week:
Aaron Harang- SD. Anyone can pitch in Petco. He already has a 1.50 ERA there this year. He returns to Petco to face his old team next week for redemption. Plus he faces Houston who he has a winning record against.
Jeff Francis – KC.- He’s already thrown 2 quality starts, is at MIN next, who he has a 2.84 ERA against, and then goes home to face SEA and their bad offense.
Daisuke Matsuzaka – Bos. I have a feeling BOS offense will crush the ball the next time through the rotation. He struggles a bit vs. TB, but their offense is weaker. He faces TOR at the end of the week next week, who he owns.
Esmil Rogers – COL. A little more risky. Rogers had a nice spring and should be a decent pitcher. Watch how he does tonight. If he does decent then he could be an okay risk for next week against the Mets and Cubs.
good blog if you are in a 12 team league… otherwise there would be much better out there in free agency than that. Please write next blog on bereavement list and the new 7 day concussion DL… don’t you think fantasy commissioners should accommodate these transactions????
So I have noticed that Escobar is off to hot start as well, is he worthy of a roster spot or would you rather go for a guy like Espinosa?
asdrubal cabrera
@curt ferg – Most serious leagues are 12 teams. If there are less teams than that then there would be a million good players out there to pick up. Usually fantasy commissioners can’t accommodate these things. That’s up to the fantasy site itself to do.
@Stephen T. – Anyone who plays for Toronto hits for power so Escobar is a decent add. I would rather have Espinosa because he possesses more tools and will be the leadoff hitter eventually.
So I just lost Nishioka with a broken leg for my SS spot, so out of what I have from wavier who seems best:
Both Escobar’s, Izturis, Orlando Cebrera, Angel Sanchez, Jack Wilson, Paul Janish,
@Stephen T. – You and me both just lost Nishioka…you can’t plan for injuries like that. Alcides Escobar has as much speed as Nishioka does. So if you were using Nish for speed then get Alcides. Get Yunel Escobar is you need power.
Alcides Escobar it is.
@Stephen T. – But he’s day to day right now himself. He could go on the new 7 day concussion DL. Shortstop is ugly.
TFG –
Any chance of a weekly two start pitcher ranking section or column. I’m looking at who to grab for week 3, and there seems to be a bunch of mediocre guys grouped together (Dice-K, Correia, Litsch, Richard, Niese, etc.)- these guys in my league are sharp and the decent two start guys will not be around long. Which guys stand out as the guys to stream next week?
So was Edwin Jackson agianst the Rays a fluke or do you think he will actually produce this year? Seeing that he can have trouble with the home run ball and playing in Chicago, what do you think? I’m thinking if anything I could pick the guy up and he could be a sell high type of guy atleast.
@Smokey – It’s really hard to tell this far in advance who will be two starters. A lot can change who will pitch like weather, injuries, cancellations, skipped #5 starters, etc… So if I did a two start column it would have to be for the upcoming week and not for 2 weeks away because it could turn out to be very inaccurate. With that being said, IF Richard is really a 2 starter that week I would get him. Looking ahead it looks like his one career start at Wrigley was very good, and then he’s at home, which is good, but he faces the Phillies. But, his numbers against the Phillies are good too. He’s actually better than just to own as a 2 starter. I would add him and make him a regular part of the rotation. I think he was a nice sleeper this year capable of a very good and improved season.
@Stephen – Your exactly right. At the least he’s a good sell high guy. I like Jackson. He should have a nice season. He’s improved each year. And he finsihed 4-2 with a 3.24 ERA with CWS last year. So his totals with the White Sox are 4-2 with a 3.03 ERA so far. Factoring in his ability to pitch deep into games, his high K totals, and his good CWS splits, I’d add him. He actually shouldn’t even be available at this point.
Thanks TFG
When I said week 3 – maybe I meant week 2, I was going off of these lists for two start guys
http://fantasysource.sportingnews.com/baseball/experts/freeview/bill-bender/2011-04-07/two-start-pitchers-april-11-17
http://fantasynews.cbssports.com/fantasybaseball/story/14917747/week-2-fantasy-pitching-planner
Looks like Richard’s status depends on Latos’s return date…
Should I drop Vernon Wells or Adam Jones? I use one or the other as my utility guy.
@Terry M. – Vernon Wells. He had his last good season last year. Jones is off to a good start with no pressure in a high powered offense. He has much more upside.
I could use a productive bat. I’ve got a few infielders but Espinosa is available. Should I grab him as my utility bat? Right now Prado/Adam Jones platoon that spot.
@Terry M. – It’s hard to tell who is available but Espinosa is a good option regardless. That doesn’t mean there isn’t a better option I don’t know about. Jones/Prado is pretty good platoon split as is.
Hamilton is out 6-8 weeks.
I get Dunn back and on the same day Hamilton goes down.
Ugh.
Thanks for all the great advice. I need to pickup a starting pitcher to off-set a struggling Bucholz. Masterson, Correia, Chacin, and Travis Wood are available. Any thoughts?
@Terry M. – You have some great options available wow. Masterson, Chacin, and Wood are all worth having on your regular team. All of them are great options and all of them are similar so its very hard to pick between them. For the short term Travis Wood is the only 2 starter of the group for next week. But you would have had to get him today for him to start for you tomorrow and next week. Otherwise your only getting him for 2 which is the exact same amount of starts as the other 2 guys over the next 2 weeks. Masterson has been the best so far but he guy tells me to take the other two first. My guy also says that Chacin will experience more growing pains than Wood, but both are rookies I believe. Wood, Chacin, Masterson in that order, but its a toss up and all 3 have value. Can you add more than one of them?? I would if you could.
@The Fantasy God – Its late and I’ve been at Nationals Park all day…lots of mistakes there…i meant to say both times that ****my gut tells me to take them
I can add two if I dumped Guthrie. By dropping him I could have both Wood and Chacin.
I also have Lowe. He’s been performing well for me but I can certainly see that changing.
@Terry M. – Definitely get Wood. Especially after another really strong outing from him tonight. He is the real deal. I would rather have Chacin than Guthrie by far. Chacin may end up being Colorado’s best pitcher by the end of the season, and will easily be their #2. Guthrie was undrafted in most standard drafts, and although he is good for deep leagues, his value is nowhere near that of Chacin’s.
Always great advice. Thanks. Now if you could only fix Mauer for me. He’s headed to the DL. I noticed Arencibia is available so there might be some short-term upside.
Who do you like more — Arenciba or Carlos Ruiz?
@Terry M. – Were in the same boat on Mauer. Arencibia for power and Ruiz for average. Overall I like Arencibia. I just added Ruiz for Mauer, but that was only because Arencibia was not available, and because Ramos, Conger, and Napoli aren’t getting everyday at bats.
I’m glad you encouraged me to pick up Chacin. A good line from him tonight. Definitely helping my era stats. Thanks.
@Terry M. – Complete game shutout! Chacin is very good.
I’ve got a roster spot open. You think I should get greedy and try to add Harrison? I’ve benched Bucholz and the struggling Bumgarner.
@Terry M. – Harrison has been pitching great. I believe you said in an earlier post that Masterson was available? He is a good add too. They are both close, but my gut tells me that Harrison is overachieving a little bit right now and that Masterson is really as good as he’s pitching. My gut tells me to say add Masterson instead, which is risky because Texas has a great offense and Cleveland will not once their hot streak ends. I think Masterson wil be good all year, and Harrison will still be good for a little while too. Grab Harrison until he blows up, and I think he will eventually. Grab Masterson and expect to have him all year as a solid starter. The run support will drop eventually and it may be hard for him to get wins, but his ERA will be good and his K’s will be great.
I see what you’re saying. Do you think Bumgarner will get his act together anytime soon? I can always drop him and hold onto Masterson and Harrison.
@Terry M. – I wasn’t as high on Bumgarner as I was the other young guys around him in the draft like Hellickson, Daniel Hudson, and Matusz. But his ceiling is too high to just cut him. You used a middle round pick on him so I wouldn’t dump him in week 2. If your worried about his production you can probably trade him pretty easily. I’m not a big fan on trading guys low though. He will have his ups and downs though, but you should have expected that when you drafted him. Maybe try dealing him from Matusz since its a sell low for a sell low. I think he will certainly be better than his first two starts in the future though.
Can you give me advice on whether or not to start Lowe, Matherson, and Lee tonight?
@Bryan – This early in the week its hard to really bench starters. Lowe has been solid all year and was solid against the Dodgers last season. Masterson was solid against KC last year too. And I don’t think I’d ever bench Cliff Lee, especially after a complete game shut out. Start them all.