Remember not to get too caught up in hot streaks or slumps and think that a player will do that for the entire season. Its hard to remember how great Nelson Cruz and Gordon Beckham were in week 1 because they have been so bad since then. At some point they will return to those numbers and will level out around the numbers that they should be producing. You have to remember that when your looking to trade for players who are hot. Is Gaby Sanchez good? Yes. Is he consistent? Yes. Is he on a hot streak right now? Yes. Would I buy him high sell Prince Fielder and make him my primary 1B? No. Never buy high and sell low. Especially don’t sell low on anyone you took in the first 6 rounds. The object is to buy players low before they get hot and reap the benefits. So who should you buy low on right now?
Joe Mauer- I don’t care if he’s out until early to mid June. As soon as he comes back he will put up an elite average and elite offensive numbers. There are rumors of him converting to the outfield which would give him multiple eligibility. His numbers will be typical of any other team he has ever played. The only downside is that you have to wait on him and be patient for another month.
Buster Posey- If anyone is frustrated with his low AVG and wants to sell him then jump on him. Coming off an overachieving rookie season Posey was due to come down a little. He will start hit for AVG in the .280 range and hit an elite number of HR’s for his position. Most people will probably give him a long leash, but as that leash gets tighter swoop in sell someone hot. Avila and another piece perhaps?
Adam Dunn- .180 and 3 HR so far. If there is anyone in the game who will give you a guaranteed stat line its Dunn. He will still hit .250 and he will still hit 38 HR. Which means trading for him right now will give you 35 HR for a partial season with him. Those are huge numbers. Of course its taken him awhile to adjust to AL pitching, but once he’s comfortable and starts to get hot he will blast a last of HR’s in a short amount of time. Yes the average will hurt you, but he’s very much worth the power at this cheap of a cost.
Dustin Pedroia- He’s off to a bad start, he is starting to hit better, and he will still have elite 2B numbers when the season ends. Enough said. If you can get him for less than his 2nd-3rd round value then do it.
Dan Uggla- He’s usually a slow starter. Most managers are probably happy with him already because he has supplied them 6 HR. His AVG on the season is pretty bad though. Worse than normal. But over the last week or so he’s hitting for AVG and looking much better. He should slowly get his AVG back up there to a respectable number while jacking plenty of HR’s.
Chase Utley- The window has probably closed to get Utley for cheap now that its known that he is starting a minor league rehab assignment. I fully expect him to come back in two weeks and do what he’s always done. I can see him hitting .300 with 5 HR by the end of June.
Aramis Ramirez- He hasn’t hit a HR in ages. Once he gets that first one off his chest (which should be soon because he is starting to heat up) he should get back into a groove and find more consistency. He is a better second half player and still has a lot of power potential. Since he was drafted late he should be very cheap to acquire. One mediocre pitcher might do it. He’s a good fill in until Zimmerman or Pablo returns, and a good utility hitter for the rest of the season.
Hanley Ramirez- He’s still an elite player at a thin position. If you can get him even for a guy that went in the late 1st Round I’d still do it. He is still the #2 or #3 player overall and will prove it shortly. If you can get him for anyone that was drafted after round 1 then don’t even think about it and just do it.
Carlos Gonzalez- I did predict him to come down a little from last season, but he is much better than the way he is playing now. I still expect solid numbers. If someone is ever looking to sell any 1st round picks like this then do it.
Delmon Young- He’s probably very cheap. Good enough to put up 2nd OF type numbers. As the Twins get healthy with Nish and Mauer returning and the teams gets better overall there are nothing but good things that will happen to that offense.
Nick Markakis- Do you want average? Then get Nick. When it warms up so will he. I expect him to get near .300 still.
Good pitchers will always pitch. If there are any pitchers that are for sale that your gut tells you is really good or was really good last year then trust yourself to get them. Guys like Jimenez, Gallardo, and Latos will perform sooner or later. I wouldn’t worry about any of them long term. Madison Bumgarner was already proof of that as he bounced back quickly.
Any questions? Comments? Leave them and I will answer ASAP as usual.
Also be sure to check out The Fantasy God’s page on BSR for all his analysis throughout the season.
Nice article, and was funny because I was able to get Young really cheap about a week ago because a guy couldn’t keep him in the roster so I have been able to let him sit on my bench till he comes back to form. Anyways, I was also curious what you think about E. Aybar. I know that he has dealt with injuries but do you think now that he is starting and seems healthy that he could keep a decent avg of .280 -.300 while keeping up his stolen base rate? I need stolen bases in the worst way and he is now leading off for the Angels.
He could do that if he would ever stay healthy. But I don’t see him ever staying healthy. I’ve given up on him being consistent. I guess you can give him one last shot but if he goes down cut him and never touch him again.
Any thoughts on Alex Rios? He’s been my most disappointing draft pick and has basically been warming my bench since about week 2. He had two good outings in the last week but he keeps spacing those out with days going 0/4. Do you think his toe is bothering him that much or is this just a slump that he’ll eventually break out of?
How about Cargo and Alex Gordon for Hanley?
@Scot – I keep thinking he’s due to break out soon…
@Scot – I think he had one last good season last year and he’s about done. I’d let him go. He wasn’t on my radar to be drafted this year. At this point he’s not really tradable either.
@Brien Bonneville – If your on the Hanley end I would do it.
Berkman and cole hamels for Joey votto? I would be getting votto. I am in first at the moment but I am always looking to picl up a big bat like that. My pitching is decent and losing my best pitcher would hurt but having Miguel cabrea and Joey votto in my line up seems to hard to resist.
@Matt – If the other guys wants to do it then i would absolutely take that deal in a heartbeat. I would give up Berkman/Hamels/another hittter/another pitcher all for Votto. That is how much he is worth. With Votto and MCab I don’t see you really needing pitching because you will dominate offense. But pitching is the easiest thing to replace and I’m sure there are plenty of good starters available to you that could make up for Hamels’ loss.
So Beachy left the game today and reports say Miner will be called up, why not Teheran?
@Stephen T – Probably because they feel Minor is major league ready now and was competing with Beachy for the final rotation spot. I guess they feel Teheran still needs time to develop at AAA, which makes no sense seeing how he just threw 7.2 IP 2 ER 7 K and got the win in his last start on Thursday. The only reason why this makes any sense is because when Beachy comes back he will return to the rotation. Minor can be optioned back down after that since they haven’t used any options on him yet. They wouldn’t want to blow another option on Teheran. It will be Teheran’s time when there is a secure long term rotation spot open. So when Derek Lowe is dealt or a pitcher would be lost for the season. If that doesn’t happen he should be up in the pen or making spot starts by the end. Regardless Lowe is gone next year and he’s an everyday starter. Hopefully they deal Lowe this year since he’s nothing but trouble. Even though they are contenders it makes sense to deal him and not lose him to free agency since they have so much pitching depth. Or maybe they will just be smart and bring Teheran up and keep him up?