In the spirit of Jimmy the Greek, we’re going to offer you some stone cold locks this football weekend, or, just some spurious guesses based on cursory analysis and casual observation. Either way, this being Baltimore, we thought we’d hear from our favorite wholesale narcotics importer: the man known simply as “The Greek.”
Greek’s 2011 Record ATS: 22-32-1
Greetings readers. Losing is a disease as contagious as polio. Losing is a disease as contagious as syphilis. Losing is a disease as contagious as bubonic plague. Attacking one but infecting all. But curable. After yet another sub .500 week at 2-3 ATS, my overall picks reminded me of this scene (http://vimeo.com/27563228) from The Natural. Will I have a Roy Hobbs moment? Can I rattle off 10 straight over the next two weeks in a stadium floodlight explosion to bring the overall record to .500? For now I settle for walking out on the shrink and hoping for the best. Here are your week 16 picks.
Carolina Panthers -7 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers
To recap what I wrote last week, “Tampa Bay has given up on their season and their coach. I think Tampa is the team you pick against for the rest of the way or until the lines start getting out of control.” 7 isn’t out of control and Cam Newton & Co. are 4-2 ATS as the favorite in 2011. The Bucs did at least show some fight in the 2nd half of the game against the Cowboys, but that doesn’t matter. The U-Hauls are lined up at Raymond James Stadium and ready for the off-season.
New Orleans Saints -6.5 over Atlanta Falcons
The Saints at home are scary. Scary to other teams and to your wallet if you are wagering against them. They are a perfect 6-0 ATS at the Superdome with wins of 17, 7, 55, 11, 25, and 14. None of those numbers are 6.5 or less. Atlanta is .500 ATS overall in 2011 at 6-6-2, 3-4 ATS away from home and 2-2 as the underdog. Brees probably passes Marino’s yardage mark while shredding the Falcons on Monday Night.
New England Patriots/Miami Dolphins over 48.5 total points
New England’s last game below 55 points happened prior to Thanksgiving and these two teams churned out 62 (38-24 Pats win) in Week 1. The Patriots defense hasn’t been playing well so Belichick and Brady game plan to drop 40 on an opponent. Red Flag is that Miami is 3-11 ATS on the over this year. Ignore it.
Denver Broncos -2.5 over Buffalo Bills
It seems like the Bills are planning charter flights with the Buccaneers. After an extremely hot start, Buffalo has now dropped 7 straight. The Tebows need a win to stay at least a game up in the AFC West. You’ve gotta figure divine intervention rears its celestial head if need be since it counts!
Seattle Seahawks +2 over San Francisco 49ers
If you’ve read this column at all you know the 49ers have ridiculous numbers ATS in 2011 (11-2-1 overall, 8-1 as the favorite). What you might not know is Seattle has a pretty nice line themselves (9-4-1 overall, 5-2 at home and 8-3-1 as the underdog). The 49ers are coming off a huge win over the Steelers and this could be a let down game in a week where the opposition has been playing well and grasping for a playoff spot.
