In the spirit of Jimmy the Greek, we’re going to offer you some stone cold locks this football weekend. Or, just some spurious guesses based on cursory analysis and casual observation. Either way, this being Baltimore, we thought we’d hear from our favorite wholesale narcotics importer, the man known simply as, “The Greek.” Of course, he’s “not even Greek.” Please wager responsibly. Or not at all.
Please, sit, have some coffee. Would you care for some pie? Ignore the rundown decorum of this shipping container-turned diner. I have a great business opportunity for you in the footballs this weekend. These are volatile times, after all, and it’s good to carry some insurance. It’s also good nail a 5-team parlay. Come come, I show you.
The term “suicide pool” is, very . . . unpleasant. Sergei (not “Boris”) and I like to refer to it as an “unfortunate accident” pool. Anyway, if you’re still alive in your unfortunate accident pool, you probably used up Green Bay already. Don’t be a malaka and be fooled by how sloppy the Eagles played last week. Anyone can have an unfortunate incident in Philadelphia, if memory serves. Take Philadelphia in your unfortunate accident pool over San Francisco.
As I said this is simply business. Buy for a nickel, sell for a dime. It’s all about value, my friends. Right now, the Indianapolis Colts are still an excellent value. For the second week in a row, they are 10-point underdogs on a nationally televised game, and for the second week in a row, they will cover against a team who cannot finish the job. Take the Colts +10 at Tampa Bay in good health, friends. Peyton Manning, we know, we trust. Curtis Painter, we do not know. This doesn’t concern us. The Bucs’ wins are by 4 and 3 points only. They are young, but the Yosh Freeman is a comeback artist, not a finisher.
Baltimore has been very good to my associates and I. If there’s one thing we’ve learned, it’s that you can never underestimate what a man from Baltimore will do to protect his home turf. Just ask Frank Sobotka. Lay the Ravens -3.5 over the Yets on Sunday Night. If they don’t cover, don’t bother looking for us on Monday morning.
Everything in this world has a price, so you are very fortunate for me to be giving away such information. Perhaps one day maybe you will do us a favor, yes? Spiros will text you, okay? Okay. Yerry Yones is a business man, much like me. His restaurant may be a little nicer, this is true. But he knows when he is beaten. I can see it in a man’s eyes. All around him, people are having unfortunate accidents. The Cowboys have no answers for these Lions of Detroit. The Suh will smash Tony Romo’s ribs underneath his fancy vest. Take the Lions +1.5 at Dallas and hear the young Lions roar to 4-0.
Finally, we have a proposition for only the most adventurous of businessmen. We have this young man, Cam Newton. Here is a boy with good business sense. Never do anything you do well for free, I always say. This Jay Cutler, he cannot be trusted. Take the Panthers +6 at Chicago.
Ya sou!
Dave Gilmore has been through the entire “The Wire” box set more times than he can count. He can be found at @dave_gilmore.
Dig the Column. A couple plays from By The Numbers:
The Field vs. The Phis to win the NL Pennant: Take the Field at +120 (equates to 6:5 odds).
Take the Brewers to win the World Series at +825 (equates to 8.25:1 odds).
Not a lot of involved analysis on either of these. The idea is pretty simple: Since the MLB playoffs operate on absurdly small sample size (Best of 5 and Best of 7), each team has essentially a 50/50 chance to win each series. Thus, the Phils have about a 25% chance (1 in 4) to win the NL Pennant but right now bookmakers think their chance is better than 50%. Silly bookmakers.
Similarly, the Brewers have a 17% chance (1 in 8) to win the WS and bookmakers have them at 12%. Less silly but still incorrect bookmakers.
Take the value and hope the coin flips go your way.
I got emoticoned! The sentence explaining the Brewers play should read: Similarly, the Brewers have a 17% chance ( 1 in 8 ) to win the WS and bookmakers have them at 12%. Less silly but still incorrect bookmakers.
I liked it better with the emoticon. As in, the Orioles have a 1 in 🙂 chance to land Prince Fielder.