There are three ways to look at Spring Training- as an arbiter of things to come in the season, as a sneak peak of which individual players are progressing nicely (or poorly), or as a complete and utter random act of nonsense. There are those who bread down Cla Meredith’s inning here, Adam Jones’ game there, the one at-bat that Nolan Reimold took, or the 3-inning “start” that one contending pitcher or another put together. Others, even more dangerously use it as a signal of how the season will go. Fans I have encountered have run the gamut, while I have distinctly put myself in the “complete and utter random act of nonsense” category. There are few things in sports where I am willing to kick my feet up and let it go, but this is one of them. And I recommend you stop worrying about that box score from Sarasota too.
Let’s remember that Spring Training is essential a month’s worth of games, so let’s compare it to a month in the majors, shall we? On April 30th, 2009, Boston and Toronto were tied for the lead in the AL East, Kansas City held a half-game lead in the Central, and Seattle had a 2.5 game hold on the West. In the NL, Florida, St. Louis, and Los Angeles held sway. Of these teams, only Boston, St. Louis, and the Dodgers made it to the postseason. Toronto finished in 4th place, Kansas City in the cellar, and Seattle in 3rd place in their respective divisions. Let’s try not to read too much into a small sample size. Baseball is notorious for being a long and gruelling season- some players start hot and fade away, others start slow and gear up as the season goes on (Aubrey Huff and Melvin Mora used to be historically good second-half players). Most of this team is so young that we have no idea how good they will be when the season starts, much less in August, when let’s hope it still matters.
Spring Training is also more of a showcase of organizational depth than anything else. Unfortunately for the O’s, most of their players who aren’t already in the majors are either marginal major league talent or too young to be ready for the big show. They don’t have the luxury that other teams do of trotting out established talent and picking out which one to start. So while they are sending out their soon-to-be Single-A and Double-A players, their opponents are able to counter with quality veterans. We can use yesterday’s game as an example. The O’s trotted out Felix Pie (bench), Robert Andino (bench), Lou Montanez (AAA), Nolan Reimold (injured starter), Brandon Snyder (AAA), Josh Bell (AA/AAA), Scott Moore (AAA), Chad Moeller (bench), and Justin Turner (AAA). The Cardinals countered with essentially a major league roster, featuring veterans Julio Lugo, Brendan Ryan, Yadier Molina, and Ryan Ludwick, not to mention Matt Holliday and Albert Pujols. The fact that the O’s lost 4-2 shouldn’t surprise anyone- the very fact that our AAA squad could hang with them should be a credit to them.
Now, I know that certain individuals are struggling and not giving Baltimore fans much of a reason for confidence. Above all, Jeremy Guthrie seems to be coming apart like he did much of last year. But a lot of players start slow, especially at the plate. Nolan Reimold seemed to get his swing back a bit yesterday, and will undoubtedly improve his dismal .129 average. However, he has only gotten 10 games worth of at-bats. If a player goes through a slump for 10 games no one thinks too much of it- but in Spring Training we analyze all. Matt Wieters started off slow last year too, who’s to say it isn’t the same thing happening again? I understand that the pitching isn’t what Baltimoreans are hoping for this season, but let’s put it once again into perspective. There are only 3 pitchers who have at least 2 starts’ worth of innings- Chris Tillman, Jeremy Guthrie, and Brian Matusz. Tillman and Matusz are doing very well, and isn’t that what’s important right now? Jeremy Guthrie will either come around or he won’t- he certainly can’t do much worse than last year. In 15.2 innings, there isn’t much to evaluate.
Remember, this time last year O’s fans though Alfredo Simon would be a solid #3 starter. In a sport that’s measured in months, let’s try to wait at least until May to start wondering this team has been overhyped. Fretting over spring training is like worrying about a marathoner while he stretches before a race. At least let the man start running first.
The only people overhyping are the select few in Baltimore who actually think this team can play .500 ball.
Nobody else is hyping them because there is no reason to do so.
I appreciate the time you took to write this piece. It's very well written. But I just can't agree with it.
When almost an entire article is devoted to explaining away poor performances, the team has issues.
With the schedule the Orioles have to start the season, I don't think it matters how much stretching they do. They'll be lucky to crawl through mid May. By then their legs might stop working.
Like you, I'm not worried. I have come to grips with what this team will be this year. 73-75 wins.
X,
I didn't take your article as being one offering excuses for the Orioles, just your take on the situation.
I am of the mindset that losing teams DO need to establish winning ways, be it Spring Training or not. The injuries are a major concern, not an excuse, in that this team needs to fire on all cyclinders just to keep their collective heads above water. When you take 50+ doubles out of the top of the order, that's bad news. Guthrie looks to be in some kind of mental fog. He's lost confidence, and some MPH, and if he insists it's nothing physical, then it's gott be mind games he's playing in his head. Again, I am not worried about Millwood. He'll give his 200 innings and a decent amount of quality starts, which is exactly why they brought him in. Reimold is troublesome in that athletes generally take a full year to recover from an achilles, and quite honestly some are never the same. (continued)
The recovery time for a completely torn achilles might be 1 year, but that is not what Riemold had. His was only slightly torn and the recovery time was expected to be 4 months. I think Reimold's struggles are more related to rust than the injury. He just needs to get more regular at bats and get his rythm back after spending most of his off-season rehabbing.
Haven't seen him first hand (but I will in Tampa on 6 April!!!) but I heard he is still limping.
I heard that early in the spring, but have not heard it for a while. And I don't think a slight limp was the reason he started off 0-20 whatever. I think he was rusty from having spent time rehabbing as opposed to doing baseball realted workouts in the off- season. He has shown signs of life recently going 4 for his last 10.
Achilles injuries tend to be worst on run/jump athletes. Basketball and football players tend to have the hardest time getting back to their prior form. Reimold may be slowed on the base paths and in the field some, but let's face it, he is in the bigs because of his bat. I don't see how a sore calf is going to affect him that much.
(continued)
I do think it's time to panic. This team wasn't going to contend with Boston and NY anyway, but tie one hand behind their backs and it could get ugly. If this team wins 60 something games this year, where do they turn then? If Matusz, Tillman, Bergeson, et al turn out to be Loewen, Cabrara, and Ponson, what do they do? it could be another 12 years before they win. And going out and shopping for a free agent pitcher or two aint gonna do it. This is 20 something years of mismanagement, if you ask me and you can't fix it overnight.
So how freakin long will it take STG?
This cannot be some open ended odyssey.
Sadly, that's exactly what I think it is.
Two legit free agent pitchers won't do it but it sure as hell would help.
My point about the article is it goes to great lengths to explain away loss after loss. I agree with you that if this team had proven something over the years then it might not mean much. But it's just another sign to me that this team is gonna lose a hell of alot of games this year.
Which of course brings us to next offseason where the excuses will start once again.
Mark,
I'm asking myself the same question. As I stated, if this group of pitchers turns out to be Cabrera, Loewen, and Ponson, I guess they either scrap the rebuilding and start shopping, or start all over again. Don't misinterpret my hope for belief, they are two different things. I HOPE Matusz, Tillman, and Bergesen are the next Maddux, Avery, and Smoltz, but I'm not sure I believe that. If these guys tank, what do they do? I don't know the answer.
We can dig up our old argument, but will it help? I just don't believe they have the income to spend with the Yankees and Red Sox. They have more wherewithal than they have demonstrated recently, but they cant go toe-to-toe for the front line guys if either of those two teams want them?
IMyself, I would take zero satisfaction if they were third highest in terms of payroll and third in the standings. I guess you could say "at least they are trying", but again, I take no solace in that. In ' 98 and '99 they were second only to the Yankees in payroll, they fell to 5th in spending in 00. They finished in 4th place all 3 years.
STG
You are too much.
This team is something like 27th or 28th in the league!
My god man!
You're reading me ALL wrong. I don't know what the team should do. What do you believe they need to do to break out of this 20 some year funk?
I've said it's time to panic. I've said they can't hang with Boston and New York. I said I HOPE but don't believe, What are you thinking I'm saying?
My god man, read my posts!
Mark,
Not trying to be a smart ass, just asking you like I asked 2488…what moves would you have made with this club in the offseason? Lackey? Holliday? Put on your GM hat and open Angelos' checkbook and tell me where you would have spent.
This team is going to remain a worthless group…Management is banking on a gaggle of pitchers that have done nothing in the Majors, throw in Markakis, Jones, and Wieters… It will be another start over next year and everyone knows it or won't take off the orange shades… Gone by the trading deadline or offseason will be:
Tejada, Millwood, Guthrie, possibly Atkins, Scott, and Trembly (who I think should be). Now that would mean a new 3rd sacker, #1 & #2 pitchers (unless of course you start next year with players that have 1 year experience and everyone knows that doesn't work), DH, possibly 1st sacker, possibly SS (Izturis contract is up this year and will be 34 which is old for a starting ss and who is in the wings? Andino?) and a new manager with a different approach.
Continued…
This year alone…
Roberts may be done (back problems can be bad and so far its not looking great for Roberts)
Reimold is a year or more away from being 100%
Pie is done if he doesn't produce this year
Tejada is learning a new position and is on the downside of his career
Millwood is throwing beach ball to the plate
Gonzalez is pitching like Tim Wakefield (floating the ball to the plate)
Guthrie is nothing but a 4 or 5 pitcher
Not defending the Orioles' moves, but what would you have made this offseason? Who would you have picked up at third base? First? What pitchers would you have went after? And please don't tell me light hitting third baseman Chone Figgins and his career 31 homers…I said THIRD baseman, not second baseman. Seriously, who would you have gone after?
The pitchers are young and they are definitely banking on their success, but to say they've done nothing in the majors isn't entirely accurate. In the short time that these guys have seen major league ball, they've had some success.
The building is around them, no doubt. But these guys performed last year, specifically Matusz and Bergesen.
Is 9-13 really that bad of a ST performance that the alram bells need to be sounded? The Yanks are 9-12, Angels 7-12, Mariners 8-14, Rangers 6-14, seems a like a fair number of decent teams have bad records in the spring. The things to be concerned about are injuries and slow starts by key players,but like XP said sample size and the fact that the games are meaning less needs to be taken into account.
Also, I think the difference between the O's now compared to 5 years ago is that there is pitching depth behind Matusz, Tillman and Bergesen. 5 years ago there were not guys like Arrietta, Erbe, Britton, Hernandez and good bullpen arms like Mickolio, Lebron and Perez. The O's still have what many consider a top 10 farm system despite the # of players that have "graduated" in the last year plus. Obviously, not all these players are going to have success in the big leagues, but at least there is depth if Matusz breaks his arm, Tillman can't harness his talent and Bergy eats and drinks himself out of the league.
Their depth is astounding. It's not that they're banking on Daniel Cabrera and Adam Loewen to work out because no one is behind them…They've got amazing depth on this team and it continues to grow.
Zach, I have to admit, your just stupid, plain and simple, stupid….
There is no amazing depth! What, the minor leaguers that the O's always overhype and that you bought into for the last 12 years?
You do realize that for the first time it is not the O's that are hyping their minor league talent. Scouts and scouting services are the ones touting them.
JP,
2488 is an Orioles hater. He disagrees with the moves the Orioles have made, but when you put him on the spot and ask what they "shoulda" did, he never responds. He'll say "get free agents" but when pressed for "who" he backs off.
He posted "who" below. He wants to run this team like Al Davis would.
I'm staying away from this topic. I've been caught up in it a few times already.
And guess what Zach.
You're gonna be caught up in another wasted season when the Orioles lose 90+ games but save money because they aren't quite ready to compete yet.
Must…Resist…Going around….in this…pointless circle….once again….!!!!
STD – Not just Free Agents… They could have a young (28) 1st sacker / #4 hitter for years in Adrian Gonzalez. The Padres can't get rid of him fast enough! And the Padres want young minor league players. So you would keep your nucleus of players in a trade… Plus Gonzalez is signed for 2/3 more years at about a total of $18mil.
Even sign a young Adam Laroche for 1st if not Gonzalez. Laroche has 32, 21, & 25 dingers the last 3 years with 90, 85, 88 ribbies. But no, the O's sign a bandaid reclamation project in Atkins.
Why not trade for a #1 in Jake Peavy like the Sox did last trading deadline? O's could have done that trade easily. Hell the Sox barely gave anyone up for Peavy. He's only 31. No, the O's trade for 37 year old Millwood. Heck, instead of Tejada you could have put Atkins at 3rd and Gonzalez at 1st. With Peavy at #1
The trades/FA's are there for the taking but the O's want the same old bandaid approach with old players. So don't give me that "What could the O's do?" crap… There's alot that they could have done without breaking the bank! Your a "Jagaloon"
You're talking about going with the same plan that killed the Orioles for the past decade. So they build this young talent to send parts of it to San Diego, Arizona and Chicago?
C'mon, that's not much of a plan.
Zach – I give up. It's beating your head against the wall. All of us as fans are frustrated with the Orioles. No need to resort to the language and name calling.
This is what typically happens on these threads and I'm sorry to see it start here.
You can only have an opinion if it coincides with everyone elses. If you don't, you're a moron and wasting your time. Unless Mark or 2488 is paying your salary, why should they care how you're spending your time or money.
I give up.
I'm not worried about it. I'm glad that at the very least these guys care enough to want this team to win. There are plenty of Baltimore fans that have resorted to just plain not caring.
I don't think their "plan" is right, but they don't think mine is either. The beauty of it is that we'll just have to wait and see. My "plan's" solution should come blossom soon, so if I'm wrong we'll know sooner rather than later.
Being critical of the team is one thing, getting personal is another.
Hey STG
Who did I call a name or get personal with?
I think it was Stank, He called me stupid, I'm not worried about it though.
Let's the sports talk continue.
Oh OK.
Certainly seemed like I was being lumped in with that stuff.
I'll get heated but will not call anyone stupid or names.
The reason I'm sick of your repeated argument is because I DO give you names of people and you just toss them out.
I know you do. I just think you're entirely unrealistic in the way you expect the club to deal with free agents. That's my opinion. I know yours.
We've been down this road before. As I stated though, we're both looking forward to watching this club and hoping for the best.
Zach
It's entirely realistic.
The team is just choosing to not spend it.
That's a fact, not an opinion.
Lets just put it this way, if you can't take my harsh criticism then I will stop the writing! As for Mark, he feels the same way as I just spoke to him. He was going to start calling names but since you all cried then he figured he wouldn't hurt your feelings. Just do it Mark because like I said on the phone, they will do it to you.
No tears here…my eyes were just watering.
Seriously though, bring on the hot topics, I don't care. Because I think you guys are wrong and we'll see depending on how these guys play this season.
I was talking about 2488, even put it in the post…
2488 is an Orioles hater. He disagrees with the moves the Orioles have made, but when you put him on the spot and ask what they "shoulda" did, he never responds. He'll say "get free agents" but when pressed for "who" he backs off.
Bullshit.
Go after Polanco or Figgins.
Go after Lackey. Look into trading for Lee.
Go after Holliday.
So F'n sick of this mindset that the there was nobody out there for the Orioles to sign.
May I quote Ron Burgundy for a second…
"Stay classy San Diego"
[youtube MgGCIZi1UjY http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MgGCIZi1UjY youtube]
I kinda agree with both Mark adn Zach. The Orioles certainly have money to spend and there were targets out there for them to pursue, but I still believe that it is not as simple as being willing to pay the most for player A, B or C. Take John Lackey. I believe the Orioles made avetures to him and some national media specualted he would end up in Baltimore, but do you think Lackey would not take less money to sign with Boston?
And people have talked about trading for Peavy or Halladay, well both those guys had trade veto power and guess which team was not on either of their approved teams. Plus Halladay was not likely to be dealt to a team in the AL East.
I honestly believe it will take the Orioles finishing at or above .500 to make signing big name FA's more feasible. And I think there needs to be some sustained success by a few of the young arms before McPhail is willing to start trading other pitchers away. If the trade 3 young arms for A. Gonzalez and then 2 at the big league level fail, you have improved your offense but you are worse off than you were pitching wise.
I agree JP.
I will sleep easier tonight knowing STG has my back.
Just like our government does sometimes, you can't just through money at a problem and expect it to go away. Better to plan, build an infrastructure, then supplement that with necessary pieces.
STG
For the last time, I'm not saying arbitrarily throw money around.
Why can't you understand that?
This team has a payroll that's far below what he can afford.
Sheesh.
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