With the bye week now come and gone, it’s the homestretch for the Baltimore Ravens. The AFC North is locked up tight with all four teams in the mix for the division title. The Ravens are currently in third place with only one remaining divisional matchup, the season finale at home against Cleveland.
So what needs to happen for the Ravens to win the division? The easy answer is to win the rest of their games and have the rest of the AFC North teams lose theirs. With that said, what happens if the division is still deadlocked at season’s end?
Here’s a look at what needs to happen for the Ravens to win their fifth division title.
Below is the remaining schedule for each AFC North squad (listed by current division standing):
Cincinnati Bengals (6-3-1 overall, 2-1 in division with 3 games remaining)
- @ Texans (5-5)
- @ Bucs (2-8)
- vs. Steelers (7-4)
- @ Browns (6-4)
- vs. Broncos (7-3)
- @ Steelers (7-4)
Pittsburgh Steelers (7-4 overall, 2-2 in division with 2 games remaining)
- Bye
- vs. Saints (4-6)
- @ Bengals (6-3-1)
- @ Falcons (4-6)
- vs. Chiefs (7-4)
- vs. Bengals (6-3-1)
- Ravens (6-4 overall, 2-3 in division with 1 game remaining)
- @ Saints (4-6)
- vs. Chargers (6-4)
- @ Dophins (6-4)
- vs. Jaguars (1-9)
- @ Texans (5-5)
- vs. Browns (6-4)
Cleveland Browns (6-4 overall, 2-2 in division with 2 games remaining)
- @ Falcons (4-6)
- @ Bills (5-5)
- vs. Colts (6-4)
- vs. Bengals (6-3-1)
- @ Panthers (3-7)
- @ Ravens (6-4)
Now let’s take a look at tie-breaking scenarios for the division. A tie with the Bengals would be extremely unlikely by virtue of Cincinnati’s tie with Carolina in week 6, but stranger things have happened. According to ESPN.com, here is how a divisional tie would be broken:
To Break a Tie Within A Division
If, at the end of the regular season, two or more teams in the same division finish with identical won-lost-tied percentages, the following steps will be taken until a champion is determined.
Two teams
1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the teams).
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
9. Best net points in common games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
Three or more teams
(Note: If two teams remain tied after the third step or other teams are eliminated during any step, tiebreaker reverts to step 1 of the two-team format.)
1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games among the teams).
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
9. Best net points in common games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
Let’s see where the Ravens currently stand in the four most important categories:
- Head-to-head
- Divisional Record
- Record in Common Games
- Conference Record
The Ravens got swept by the first place Bengals, split with the Steelers, and won their first game with Cleveland. This makes the finale against the Browns a must-win, to get their divisional record to even at 3-3, as well as getting the edge on Cleveland in the head-to-head matchup. With a win against the Browns, the Bengals would be the only team in the division who would be able to break a tie with Baltimore using the head-to-head scenario.
Cincinnati (2-1 in the division) still has three divisional games remaining, both games against Pittsburgh and one versus Cleveland. The Steelers (2-2 in the division) have their games with the Bengals remaining. Cleveland (2-2 in the division) have their final matchup against Cincinnati remaining, as well as the aforementioned finale against Baltimore.
After being swept by the Bengals, Baltimore needs Cincinnati to lose as much as possible in the final six games to have any chance at the division, as Baltimore would lose the head-to-head tie breaker. With two games remaining against Pittsburgh and one each versus the Broncos, Browns, and Texans a poor finish by the Bengals is not out of the realm of possibility. Of course, the games against Pittsburgh offer a conundrum, as it would also help the Ravens to see the Bengals split their two divisional games with the Steelers.
Speaking of the Steelers, a split with the Bengals would put their division record at 3-3. With the prior split with Baltimore and a win for the Ravens against the Browns, the tie-breaker in this scenario would move to common opponents. Below are the common opponents for the Ravens and Steelers and the current record for each team:
- Bengals: Steelers 0-0 / Ravens 0-2
- Browns: Steelers 1-1 / Ravens 1-0
- Titans: Steelers 1-0 / Ravens 1-0
- Texans: Steelers 1-0 / Ravens 0-0
- Jaguars: Steelers 1-0 / Ravens 0-0
- Colts: Steelers 1-0 / Ravens 0-1
- Panthers: Steelers 1-0 / Ravens 1-0
- Buccaneers: Steelers 0-1 / Ravens 1-0
- Falcons: Steelers 0-0 / Ravens 1-0
- Saints: Steelers 0-0 / Ravens 0-0
The Steelers currently have a 6-2 record with games remaining against the Bengals (twice), Saints, and Falcons. The Ravens have a 5-3 record with games against the Saints, Jaguars, Texans, and Browns remaining. Getting to this point would require the Steelers to split with Cincinnati making their common opponent record 7-3 and the Ravens to beat Cleveland making their record 6-3.
To win the common opponent tie-breaker with Pittsburgh, the Ravens will need to win at least two of three against the Saints, Jaguars, and Texans while watching the Steelers lose to both Atlanta and New Orleans.
As far as Cleveland is concerned, as I’ve mentioned previously, the Ravens need to take care of business in the finale and finish off a divisional sweep of the Browns. In the event of a tie between with either the Browns or the Steelers, Baltimore will need this win to have any hope of having an edge via the tie-breaker with either Cleveland or Pittsburgh.
So does your head hurt yet?
The main thing to keep in mind with all of this is that the with the Ravens holding a 2-3 record in the division, they will need to win and their divisional opponents need to lose. There is still a lot of football left to play, so these playoff scenarios will continue to remain fluid for at least the next few weeks. Let’s cross our fingers that Ravens fans will need to continue to keep track of all of this in the weeks to come.
And remember, this is only taking into account the Division scenarios. The Ravens are currently sitting in the 9th position in the playoff standings, just outside of the sixth and final Wild Card spot. Baltimore will be playing both Miami and San Diego in the coming weeks, with both teams currently slotted just ahead of the Ravens in the fight for a playoff spot.
The playoffs start now for the Ravens. It may not be a “one and done” scenario yet, but Baltimore can ill-afford to lose any more games if they expect to see the postseason.