Thanksgiving - NFL Week 13 Picks

Week 12 Recap

I officially hate the Detroit Lions. Yes, I said it. Hate. Not only because I idiotically selected them as my #1 survivor selection in this spot last week, but they also knocked yours truly out of his second chance survivor pool. Eat one, Matt Stafford. Not only the Lions, but the Chiefs found a way to lose to my boys (BOLTS) in spectacular fashion as Phillip Rivers continues his MVP type season. Ravens took care of business (as I predicted) beating the tar out of a offensively challenged Jets squad.

Gaming wise, it was a 1-2 week as the Cowboys/Giants total fell one point short of a cover and the Bravehearts are as dead as the 30 pound turkey I’m going to crush Thursday. Rams throttled the Bears for our one win. That leaves our record at 9-5-1 over the last 15 selections overall.

But there’s no time for crying in our gravy because its time for the best holiday of them all to commence. I say that because this amazing day incorporates everything this degenerate loves: Food, Football, Hoops, Cocktails and Gaming. So with that backdrop, lets get to the selections for this week. Gobble, Gobble, Gobble.

Week 13: Survivor Selections

1. Dallas Cowboys-(-9.5) – This year Jerry Jones must have cherry picked this Thanksgiving opponent for his ‘Boys. Maybe it’s because last year the Washington Bravehearts and their “franchise” QB won in the house Jerry built 38-31. This season the Cowboys host the Oakland Raiders, who will probably without their starting QB Terrelle Pryor. This has Dez Bryant 3-TDs written all over it. ‘Boys roll.

2. New England Patriots-(-10) – Is there a more dead team walking than the Houston Texans? If you say, Washington, I wouldn’t disagree. But besides that debacle down the beltway, the Texans put the trash in the dumpster fire. Not a Tom Brady guy, but he won’t lose to team that could be playing for the #1 pick in the 2014 NFL draft. Even if its on the road.

3. Indianapolis Colts-(-4) –  No I haven’t started in the Tito’s early. No, tryptophan  hasn’t kicked in from early Turkey consumption. The Colts have been as streaky as a 70 year old lady playing the one-armed bandit at Maryland Live Casino. They can beat the Niners (in SF) and Seahawks, but also get housed at home to the Rams and last week were curb-stomped in Arizona. This week they are home vs. a Tennessee team they seem to own. Just a couple weeks ago, they won in Nashville. I expect the same in the Hoosier state this week.

Nuggets: Colts are 7-0 in their last 7 after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.

Week 13 NFL Selections

Jacksonville – (+7) – Yes, I’m actually using the Jags as an official selection this week. The same Jacksonville team I wrote earlier in this spot might not win a game this year. Not only have they won a game, but have won 2 of 3. Serious heater, eh? But seriously, this selection points more to their opponent in the Cleveland Browns and their “new” starting QB, Brandon Weeden than it does the Jags. Plus, I’m catching a TD.

Nuggets: Both of Jacksonville’s wins are on the road.

Cincinnati/San Diego – (Over 48.5) – Last week my beloved Bolts proved me wrong as I selected Kansas City as a survivor selection. And in doing so, SD dropped 41 points on what had been considered one of the best defenses in the NFL in their own house. This week they return to the artist formerly known as Jack Murphy to take on a up and down Bengals squad coming off a bye. These two teams have posted some high scoring games in the past (see nugget below) and I anticipate that trend to continue. A.J. Green should get loose for at least one score, while Phillip Rivers continues his hot streak. Not sure who wins, but I do feel very confident there will be plenty of scores.

Nuggets: The “Over” has hit in 9 of the last 10 meetings in this series.

Denver- (-4) – This doesn’t seem like a spot I usually like. Taking a road team laying more than 3 points to a good home team. But after what I saw last weekend from the Chiefs defense and the way the Broncos came from ahead to lose in Foxboro, I’m leaning towards Peyton in this one. For one reason, the weather isn’t supposed to be an issue (low 50’s). Another is the Chiefs lost both DE Tamba Hali and LB James Houston to injuries in the Bolts loss. Finally, I’m just going with some old twitter schtick, Peyton Manning > Alex Smith. This one could also fly over the posted 49 points.

Nuggets: Broncos are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 in this series.

Ravens Angle

After the above-mentioned tryptophan has finally moved through your system and the pies are beginning to roll out, it must mean the Ravens and Steelers are ready to crack helmets once again. And since I blew it in the BSR Cornhole tournament, I’ll be watching this one from my couch. And based on the weather of late, that is just fine for this west-coast softie.

But enough about me, let’s break this one down. Both teams are 5-6 and the loser of this one is probably joining me on said couch watching the playoffs. This is especially true for the home-town Ravens as they have already dropped one in Pittsburgh. So let me throw some turkey nuggets your way on why I think it will be the home team that will be enjoying some victory pie come late Thanksgiving night.

The Ravens have won 28 of 32 home games under John Harbaugh. That is pretty good last time I checked. They have also won 11 of 12 in November under this head coach that mouth-breathing radio callers want fired. Finally, the Ravens will be wearing their Black on Black uniforms which they wore the last time they played at home on Thanksgiving vs. the Niners….Do you need more? Ravens 21-17. Happy Thanksgiving!