Another week and another week in the black.
That’s because our survivor selections once again were on point as the Saints and Bengals rolled to easy wins. The only question was if Tom Brady and his emetic offense could score enough points to beat the hapless Raiders, which they barely did in Foxboro.
ATS side we were in the positive as well with the Colts (5-star selection) man handled a pathetic Jags squad in easy fashion and the Bears won SU as a 3 point dog on MNF. My “over” in the Pack/Lions game was looking good early, but someone must have put some Chad Henne in Aaron Rodgers drink at halftime as they were shut out in the second half scoring wise.
So here is our updated records going into week 4:
- Survivor: 8-1, 89%
- ATS: 5-3-1, 63%
Week 4 Survivor Selections
Indianapolis Colts (-7.5) – I can hear it now, “Jab, you are obsessed with Andrew Luck and the Colts”. Maybe it looks that way to you kind sir, but my overall record in this potion of the program says it seems to be working out A ok. Yes, Luck and his Colts were a ATS selection last week and maybe I’ve used them in a over or two, but they haven’t been selected as a survivor selection so here goes. The Tennessee Titans have a full-blown QB discussion as Jake Locker has been tossing to the other team way to much. Rookie LSU grad, Zach Mettenberger is getting closer and closer to taking his first NFL snaps, which could happen this week in Indy. The Colts are 1-2 and losing at home to this downtrodden division opponent isn’t exactly the way this potential playoff team has in mind.
San Diego Chargers (-13.5) – Homer alert! Hardly. Yes, I’m a fan of the football team residing in San Diego and have been since birth. But that doesn’t mean I wear the Powder Blue sunglasses when it comes to them from a survivor or ATS selections standpoint. Quite the opposite. But with the light slate of games (first bye week for NFL teams) and having to select at least 3 potential winners for you, I will bend my rules just this time. The Bolts are so much better than the Jags and if you are in one of those “one and done” pools, this is your best spot to use my boys. Rookie Blake Bortles will make his first NFL start for the Jags and based on their QB play to this point, it couldn’t hurt. I will say, that as a Bolts “guy” don’t be surprised if this one is much closer than the sharps in Vegas think. The Bolts historically never play well as heavy favorites and looking ahead is always a possibility. Although, I think this new regime of coaches and players will not let that mistake happen here (lets hope not).
Pittsburgh Steelers (-7.5) – Last time we saw the Bucs of Tampa was last Thursday night as they were throttled by Matt Ryan and the Falcons to the tune of 56-14. The Steelers, on the other hand, went down to Carolina this past Sunday night and man-handled a good Panthers team to keep pace with the Ravens and Bengals in the AFC North. This week they return to the Big Ketchup bottle and look to move their record to 3-1. They are banged up at linebacker, but based on how putrid the Bucs are offensively, they should be able to just outscored Tampa.
Week 4 ATS Selections
Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) – This line stinks worse than my dog Manny’s droppings. How can a team like the Falcons, with 10 days off, be only a 2.5 favorite over a team that’s without their best player (APete) and starting a rookie QB in Teddy Bridgwater? If it smells like a trap, it usually is a trap. But even with all that said, based on my ATS value chart the Falcons should be at least a 5.5/7 point favorite. QB Matt Ryan is a much different player outside the Georgia Dome, but it’s not like the Vikings are the Purple People eaters of yesteryear on defense. This one might be closer than I think, but I’m going with the value here.
Nuggets: Falcons are 4-0 ATS vs. the NFC in their last 4. The favorite in this series is 3-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
Oakland Raiders (+4.5) – Well the futbol fans in London are sure getting a “treat” when these two teams meet up at Wembley Stadium. Hopefully most of the people attending this game don’t actually follow either team since they haven’t been relevant since Princess Diana was still with us. But even though these are two pretty bad teams, there is plenty of value from a gaming standpoint. The Dolphins are ready to sit QB Ryan Tannehill with one more bad start, while the Raiders are trotting out rookie Derek Carr who hasn’t been awful so far. This line shouldn’t be any higher than 2 points either way, so getting the Faiders and almost 5 points sounds like value to me. Although I might be the only one on this side of the pond that watches this one, give me the points.
Nuggets: The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in this series. Dolphins are 0-5 ATS after giving up more than 30 pts in the previous game.
Green Bay Packers/Chicago Bears (Over 49) – If you are looking for me, I’m heading back to the well. That’s because I’m shipping my fun money chips to the center on Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense once again this week. Last week they couldn’t get out of their own ways and failed to put up a single point in the second half vs. the Lions. This week they get their rivals to the south in one of the nicest football stadiums I’ve ever been in. Chicago was last seen dropping 27 points on a good Jets defense last Monday night. I expect the conditions to be perfect and expect a ton of big plays in this one.
Nuggets: Over is 6-0 in last 6 Packers games in week 4. Over is 4-0 in last 4 Bears games vs. NFC.
Baltimore Ravens Angle
Love this spot.
It’s been quite a couple of weeks for the Purple and Black on and off the field. The Ray Rice “incident” along with a gutty last second win in Cleveland last Sunday has put the Ravens on the top of all the headlines this week. So does that mean the home team will be flat taking on a NFC opponent in the Carolina Panther come 1 pm Sunday?
I think not and here’s why.
Steve Smith Sr. will make sure of it.
This one is personal for the Ravens #1 WR threat and based on his targets from Joe Flacco over the first 4 weeks, he should be talking garbage all afternoon at the Big Crab Cake. I also think both DE Terrell Suggs and Elvis Dumervil will have at least one sack a piece as they are lined up vs. two un drafted tackles for the Panthers.
Add in that Panther QB Cam Newton is playing at about 70% of his abilities based on injuries and you can see why I like the Ravens in this spot to move their record to 3-1.