Survivor Selections
Arizona Cardinals (-8) – The ‘Cards are coming off a dreadful trip to upstate NY as they were skull-dragged by the winless Bills. It’s the old, “teams from the West coast traveling East for a 1pm local kick” usually don’t fare well. This week they come back to the desert to their cushy indoor domicile 45 minutes outside Phoenix. The recharged LA Rams will be the perfect recipe for the Cards to get on track again.
Nugget: Cardinals are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games following a ATS loss. Rams are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games.
Washington (-9.5) – I can’t believe I’m using this team as a possible survivor selection, but hear me out. If you are in a traditional one and done survivor pool, then this is the best and probably only shot you could use the ‘Skins. The Browns are terrible-although they should’ve beat the ‘Fins last week- and Kirk Cousins usually preforms well vs. terrible teams at home.
Nugget: The Browns stink.
Houston Texans (-4.5) – This line opened at 6.5 and since has dropped 2 points with the news on JJ Watt missing the rest of the season. I hope it continues to drop, because I love the Texans in this spot. One, they have had 10 days off last seen getting curb-stomped at Gillette to a 3rd string QB and two they return home where they win almost 80% of their games (SU). Brook will find DHop at least twice for scores and Lamar Miller just might be the best DFS RB going this weekend.
Nugget: Texans are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. Titans are 5-19-2 ATS in their last 26 games following a straight up loss.
Against The Spread
Carolina Panthers (+3.5) – The Panthers have endured quite a month of September. Not only did they have a comfortable lead on opening night and lost to the Broncos, but just last week they were literally beat up by a good Vikings squad at home. And if this wasn’t enough to deal with, the City of Charlotte has been in the news of late with unrest. Flip the calendar to October and I feel not only are the Panthers a much better football team than the Falcons, but I think they will show it this Sunday in Atlanta. And they are getting over a FG from Vegas. I like points.
Nugget: Panthers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 October games. Panthers are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games following a ATS loss.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-4.5) – The Steelers got boat-raced in the Keystone State battle last Sunday in the land of cheese steaks. Are the Eagles and Carson Wentz the real deal or did the Steelers just maybe take them a bit lightly? Not sure, but what I am sure of is that HC Mike Tomlin seat is getting warm and losing a home game to a strong AFC opponent won’t help his cause.
Especially if getting in the playoffs is based off tie breakers, winning at home game vs. the Chiefs could be paramount for a team many experts picked to win the AFC. Now to be transparent, I have the Chiefs making the SB taking on the GB Packers in Houston. But on this night, I think Big Ben and Antonio Brown hook up at least twice and the Steelers right the ship.
Nuggget: Steelers are 19-6-2 ATS in their last 27 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. Chiefs are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Indianapolis Colts/Jacksonville Jaguars (Over 49) – This “home” game for the Jags will be packed with Soccer hooligans because this is the NFL trying once again to shove our sport down the throats of England. Yes, this game will be played at Wembley Stadium in London and starts at 9:30 am EST. But who cares when, where or why they are playing this one across the pond, how can we benefit financially from said Futbol affair?
Both of these teams aren’t good. But I still believe Andrew Luck can sling it up and down the pitch on a pathetic Jags secondary and I have to believe my guy Blake Bortles will actually throw some TD’s to Allen Robinson vs. the Colts putrid secondary. But if he doesn’t, based on his career to this point he will at least throw some ill-advised int’s and put Luck and the Colts in good field position. Enjoy a warm pint on me Sunday Morning while these two teams soar over the total.
Nugget: Over is 8-3 in Jaguars last 11 games following a straight up loss. Over is 6-1 in Colts last 7 games on grass.
Ravens Angle
Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) – Here is one of those West Coast teams traveling East and playing in the 1pm time slot. The Raiders will be doing this death march East for the second time in two weeks as they traveled to NashVegas last week and beat the Titans 17-10.
This week Derek Carr and the Raiders will be coming into a place a ton of teams haven’t left happy. The Ravens are one of the best home venues and based on what I’ve seen from both teams this year, I don’t think that will change come this Sunday.
The Ravens running game needs to improve-and getting rookie Kenny Dixon back could help that-and the secondary needs to play much better this week vs. a talented Raiders pass offense. My biggest matchup is Raiders WR Micheal Crabtree vs. Ravens CB Shareece Wright. Jimmy Smith and WR Amari Cooper should cancel each other out, but it’s imperative that Wright keeps close tabs on Crabtree as he’s become the red zone target for Carr.
In the end, the Ravens will come out on top in this one. Justin Tucker is in range as soon as the Ravens cross midfield and I feel Joe Flacco will throw for over 300 yards and will hit rookie WR Brashard Perriman with a long TD for this first of his career. Book it.
Ravens 27-21
