“I can’t even pick my own nose”
That’s a phrase that is usually said to my four-year-old child, but based on my week seven selections, it fits here perfectly.
Yes, I made big potty in the bed last week going 0-3 ATS for the first time this season. On the survivor side of things, I was better going 2-1. But unless you go 3-0 in picking teams SU, I won’t be tearing my rotator cuff patting myself on the back. So with that, here’s the updated totals.
- Survivor: 13-5, 72%
- ATS: 7-10-1, 41%
So with that you can either fade these week eight selections or you can play the old “bounce back” theory with your boy. Your choice, but either way the selections are a coming.
Week 8 Survivor Selections:
Dallas Cowboys (-9.5) – Count me as a believer now. After handling the defending champs two weeks ago in Seattle, the Cowboys posted another great performance vs. a NY Giants team that has owned them of late at Jerry’s World. DeMarco Murray is Jim Brown reincarnated and Tony Romo is taking care of the ball like he’s Russell Wilson. And look who’s up next, but the football mess of a team in from Washington. Saying Penelope Cruz is hotter than Gwyneth Paltrow is as under stated as saying the ‘Skins have QB issues. Colt McCoy, Kirk Cousins or even that gimp RGKnee/ankle could see snaps in this MNF matchup. Won’t matter, Dallas rolls.
Kansas City Chiefs (-7) – The Chiefs are coming off beating my Bolts at the buzzer in SD, while the Rams were tricking the ‘Hawks on special teams in their home win. On a card that doesn’t have that many “lock wins”, this might be your best spot to use the Chiefs. The Rams haven’t been able to put together back to back good games and the Chiefs are playing much better since opening the season 0-2. Plus, playing at Arrowhead is a nightmare for opposing teams. Just ask NE three weeks ago.
Cleveland Browns (-7) – As stated here last week, I’m officially on the Browns wagon. Whatever that means. Last week not only did they lose to the Jacksonville Jags, but also had their first defeat ATS (3-1-2). Like me in the selections, I think the Browns will bounce right back at home this week. And to achieve that you need an awful team as an opponent. Hello, Oakland Raiders.
Week 8 ATS Selections:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) – The last time we saw these Bucs, Joe Flacco was dropping TD passes like he was Peyton Manning. The Ravens skull-dragged the Bucs all over the Big Pirate Ship to the tune of 48-17. Now coming off a bye week, they host the Minnesota Vikings who have lost 5 of their last 6 and look like a team that could be in the running for the first overall pick in the draft. I usually tend to stay away from bottom feeder type match ups, but after looking at the nuggets I like the Bucs at this short price. The Vikings just seem to find ways to lose games and can the Bucs play back to back terrible games at home under new coach Lovie Smith?
Nuggets: Vikings are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 meetings with the Bucs. Vikings are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Tampa Bay.
Carolina Panthers (+5) – The Seahawks locker room makes Capitol Hill look peaceful. After basically giving away Percy Harvin to the Jets prior to their game in St. Louis last week, RB Marshawn Lynch almost didn’t get on the team bus in protest. There are also rumors flying everywhere that QB Russell Wilson’s ex-wife was “friendly” with a couple of players prior to his surprise divorce. And now the ‘Hawks are playing their second road game in two weeks. Their only win on the road this year was at Washington if that gives you an indication of the defending champs play away from the 12th man. Now the Panthers aren’t exactly the 1994 SF 49ers as they were destroyed at Lambeau last week. But I like them catching almost a TD at home vs. a team in disarray.
Nuggets: The Panthers are 4-3 ATS this year.
New England Patriots/Chicago Bears (Over 50) – Someone must have reminded Tom Brady he was Tom Brady about three weeks ago. That’s because the Pat’s signal caller has put together three straight Brady like performances after his play on MNF at Arrowhead. Since then, the Pats have scored 43, 37 and 27 respectively and looks who is up next? ‘Da Bears. Yes, the Bears of Chicago who can’t stop a runny nose defense and are coming off their 3rd straight HOME loss to the Dolphins. The good thing for us here is the Bears can put up points and will need to in this one to keep up with Brady and company.
Nuggets: Both teams combined are 9-5 going “over” this year. The “Over” is 5-1 in Pats last 6 games in October.
My Ravens Record SU: 6-1, 86%
“A desperate home team is a dangerous team”
That is what the red-hot Ravens will have on their plate this weekend as they look to put a strangle hold on the AFC North. The Bengals of Cincy are reeling coming off 2 losses and a pathetic tie after starting the season 3-0. And it’s not only the offense that is struggling (shut out in Indy last week), but the defense has given up 107 points the past 3 games.
Hence the cool quote above.
The Bengals are as desperate for a win as the CDC is about finding a cure for Ebola. That combined with some of the trends below and you can see where I’m headed with my selection here.
- Ravens are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. AFC.
- The favorite is 5-1-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings between the two teams.
- Ravens are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Cincinnati.
- The home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
The Bengals are slight 1.5 point favorites at print time. They should have WR A.J. Green back this week and that could be the difference. Although the Ravens pass rush has been outstanding of late (10.5 sacks in last three games), it has been vs. Colts, Bucs and Falcons.
I still believe this is the Ravens division to win, but just think the more desperate team wins this Sunday.