Week 7 Recap

This past weekend was a mixed bag for your fearless gaming leader. Yes, survivor wise I had a clean sheet as the big home favorites (Atlanta, GB) came through with convincing wins. Even my beloved Bolts made short work of the pathetic Jags on the road. All good, right?

All expect for the 1-2 week on the gaming side of things as the the TD-dog Cardinals and Rams performed like sick dogs in blowout losses. If it wasn’t for the Manning Bowl going over the total by the 3rd quarter, you might have seen me at the bottom of the inner harbor with cement shoes.

Like last week there are some good choices for your Survivor selections so let me give you some nuggets:

Week 8: Survivor Selections

1. San Francisco 49ers (-17) – This game is a “home” date for the Jacksonville Jags, except their home will be in London, England come 1pm Sunday. That’s right, if the Brits with bad dental plans didn’t hate us already, then making 100K soccer heads watch the Jags will be the Bangers and Mash on top. The Niners traveled directly to England after their convincing win in Tennessee, so I don’t expect a tired/jet lagged team come Sunday. Especially with a bye week after, that psycho Jim Harbaugh will have the team focused. But what am I saying, Florida St could beat the Jags. Roll with the Niners.

2. New Orleans Saints (-12.5) – A couple of my favorite survivor intangibles come into play here as the Saints host the game Bills. One is taking a team coming off a bye week, check. Another is playing at home with a elite QB, check. And finally, I tend to focus on good teams coming off losses who posses a great head coach, check. You might not have used the Saints yet this year, so this could be your best spot.

Nuggets: Saints are 4-0 in their last 4 coming off bye weeks under Sean Payton. Saints are 5-0 ATS after bye weeks.

3. Denver (-14) – The intangibles paragraph above applies here as well. Manning, coming off a loss at home vs. one of the worst secondaries in the NFL = safe survivor selection. The Washington based football team did drop 45 on the Bears last week, but now could be without both of their starting safeties. Not exactly the way you want to head to Mile High to face an angry Broncos team. This one should also be high scoring, so if you’re into that type of thing, peak in at the posted 57 total. I’m not saying, I’m just saying.

Nuggets: Manning has lost only 1 (regular) season home game since joining the Broncos (Houston week 3, 2012).

Week 8 NFL Selections

Cleveland (+7.5) – Kansas City is the lone undefeated team left. The Browns season basically ended when QB Brian Hoyer went down for the season, which has that bum Brandon Weeden taking the snaps. Do me a favor and combine the Chiefs mediocre at best offense and the better than you think Browns defense and tell me what do you get? A Browns cover, that’s what. This line might rise too, so if you play this one wait until around kickoff Sunday to get the best value.

New England (-7) – Back to my intangible theory once again in this one. The Pats have a HOF QB in Tom Brady and they are playing at home coming off a tough loss to their division rivals in the Jets. Add to the mix that the Dolphins are in the cooler after starting off 3-0 and you can see why I like the Pats in this spot. And although Lady Brady has been off of late, he did get back that meat-head Gronk and has historically owned the Dolphins (especially at Gillette). See below.

Nuggets: The Pats have won 8 out of the last 10 in this series. Brady hasn’t lost to the Dolphins at home. The Pats haven’t lost to the Dolphins SU since Dec 6, 2009.

Washington/Denver over 57 – As pointed out above in the survivor section, I’m feeling another shootout in a Denver game. And why not as the Broncos have gone over the posted total in all of their games this year putting up Madden-like numbers in the process. Papa John’s #1 spokesman was in a fog last Sunday Night in the building he built and was actually upstaged by his replacement, Andrew Luck. Of course, PM still dropped almost 400 yds and 3 TDs in a “down spot”. This week he gets one of the worst secondaries on any level who will probably be missing their starting safeties as well.

Nuggets: Let’s make this simple: Denver averages 42.6 points per game. Washington gives up 30.7 per game. Denver gives up 28.1 points per game, while Washington with RG2.5 back to normal now, averages 25.3 per game. You do the math.

Ravens Angle:

The bye week couldn’t have come at at better time for the reeling Ravens. Last week they dropped another close one in Pittsburgh and now find themselves under .500 for the first time in the John Harbaugh era. The running game is non-existent. And I know the offensive line (center position) is awful, but either Ray Rice is hurt or he has hit the wall harder than Tori Hunter did in the ALCS. QB Joe Flacco isn’t the problem this time either. Maybe that’s because he has been put in very safe spots by this new offensive staff. But if you are paying this guy the kinda dough you are, maybe the training wheels need to be taken off.

Based on the calls to local radio, Harbs is getting his first taste of losing and serious criticism. How will he respond? Well, so far he has traded away another “dog house” guy in Bryant McKinnie to the Dolphins. Is that like putting lipstick on a pig? How about you worry more about your team’s play on the field and less about what they are doing off of it, Harbs? Just a thought, not a sermon. Enjoy that week “off”, guys.