Welcome to Baltimore, Mark Reynolds. It looks as though the Arizona third baseman will be traded to the Orioles in return for once-starter, possible future closer David Hernandez and Kam Mickolio. Reynolds, one of the many high-strikeout power-hitting corner infielders available, will come to Baltimore with 104 home runs over his past three seasons, along with 638 strikeouts. In the AL East, he will be whiffing even more but certainly will have his fun in Camden Yards and at the new Yankee Stadium. But was this a good deal?
It is very difficult for me to get excited about this deal. Reynolds is a player who, if he was a free agent, could be acquired for probably a one or two year deal. Yes, he hits a lot of home runs, but I imagine a lot of players could hit home runs if they were content with a .198 average and a .320 on base percentage. Over his 4 year career, Reynolds has accumulated 260 walks to 767 strikeouts, and while he is still relatively young (27 years old), he shows no sign of learning better plate discipline. These aren’t growing pains, they are who he is. To put this in perspective, in 2010 Reynolds struck out in 42% of his at-bats. Josh Bell, who was absolutely skewered for his lack of plate discipline, struck out just 33% of the time. The difference is Reynolds does draw a decent amount of walks which has inflated his on base percentage. He isn’t a classic clean-up hitter, but he is the best the Orioles are going to do in this market- or perhaps are willing to do.
David Hernandez has been a starter, was a solid arm in the bullpen, and has the potential to become a great closer down the line. I am not certain about the wisdom in giving up such a prospect when Orioles fans instead get to hope for a 35 year-old with a bad injury history to keep that role (Uehara) or for one of the available free agent arms to take his place. A closer is worth more now than ever, and to trade him before he has reached the apex of his value seems a bit shortsighted. However, that is what other teams were demanding, and after the Orioles “struck out” on Martinez, Dunn, Konerko, and likely Pena, they had few options remaining.
Mickolio is another potential closer, though his development took a major step back last season as he was unable to make the leap to the majors. So far in his career his dominance of AAA hitting has stood in stark contrast to his major league performance, in which he survived just 3.2 innings this past year after being the standout pitcher of spring training. He will get his opportunities in Arizona- let’s just hope the Orioles haven’t just handed away 2 future closers in the same deal.
Baltimore fans will get a few months to rationalize this move, talk about the work Reynolds is doing with Jim Presley, the new hitting coach, and how Reynolds will provide stability for the heart of the order. There is a reason players like Pena, Reynolds and others are pushed out the door despite their high home run totals- they aren’t worth it without a strong lineup around them that can afford all the other sagging statistics at the plate.
For my part, I have been very patient with Andy MacPhail, waiting for him to pull the trigger and make a big splash this offseason. Seeing Jayson Werth sign with the Nationals (be it for an over-market deal) reminds me of what the Orioles have to do to sign decent players- overpay. MacPhail has his principles, and only believes in paying a player what he is worth. That is a great principle, and if you are fielding a contender you can afford to have such principles. Watching this front office miss on their first, second, and third options just underscores the fact that while management certainly would like to have one of the premier free agents, they are unwilling to do what their competitors will. Thus, the Orioles wind up with Mark Reynolds, and the Nationals have Jayson Werth, the Tigers have Victor Martinez, and the White Sox have Adam Dunn in the fold.
Mind you, Mark Reynolds is not a bad player, and I am sure he could find a role on many teams. He may very well have his best years ahead of him. But so did David Hernandez, and the cost of losing an arm like his (and Mickolio’s) just doesn’t seem worth it, not given the free agent options. And if the free agent options are about as good as Reynolds (it certainly seems that way), then it comes down to the fact that the free agents cost more. Reynolds made just $833K last season, a bargain for any major league hitter. With $10 million per year deals being handed out left and right to free agents, the front office certainly accomplished that goal.
So exactly how much money was David Hernandez worth? How many millions are being saved by dumping him rather than signing a free agent? It depends what happens from here. But buying into MacPhail’s approach this offseason is becoming even more expensive than a free agent corner infielder.
I am sad to see both players go.
David Hernandez had shown some sign of promise. While he could light it up, I was concerned about his mental game. I am not sure he had the nerves to be a closer.
And Kam Mickolio "aka the Almighty" was super cool when we met him a few years back. [youtube NPIbnLFNSmU http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NPIbnLFNSmU youtube]
Still I am excited about this deal…. The power will be nice. I just hope he comes out swinging.
I usually bust on the Orioles for their lack of trades/FA signings and this trade is one where I am going both ways… I like the trade for a young guy who has power although no plate discipline plus I feel we didn’t trade much for him. I know, most people will say we traded two young pitchers but you know what, “How many of the O’s young players panned out over the years?”. There have been very few and then those guys were still average or below with no star potential. I like the trade.
Now for the other side. Its another cheap deal the O’s did. Reynolds contract is very cheap. You can’t tell me that if Reynolds was making $5mil a year the O’s would have made this trade. They wouldn’t have.
The Nats made a splash with Werth, yes they overpaid for the guy, but they still did something the O’s won’t do. Hell, the O’s underbid by $16mil for Dunn. Again the cheap route.
If the O’s can’t get someone on the cheap then you fans need to know they aren’t getting anyone. The O’s are the Pittsburgh Pirates of the American League.
If you are going to deal younger, cost controlled players you want them to be relief pitchers. There just aren't enough opportunities for a relief pitcher (if he pans out) to equal the production of a power hitting third baseman like Reynolds. I'm excited about the deal (assuming Reynolds is at 3B). Unless, Kam or David Hernandez turn out to have a season like Rivera or Joakim Soria I think the O's will have gotten the better of this one.
At least they did something. Werth signing with the Nats destroys the theory that bad teams can't sign top free agents. Get off a dime McPhail and Angelos and stop making excuses.
Well, Werth signed a deal WAY above what he was worth. Do you think Werth's value is $126M over 7 years? If the Orioles want a top free agent, they have to way overpay. I think the theory isn't that bad team's can't sign free agents, it's that they have to spend a lot more to do it. And it's true.
I don't agree with Expat that this was a cost thing, since Reynolds will make $5.5M next year and almost $10M the year after that. I think it was more that he was 27 years old, young enough to still improve.
No, I don't think Werth is worth $126 mil, but teams like the Nats and O's will have to overpay, we all knew that. It's the cost of 13 losing seasons.
The Nats are being criticized for making a crazy deal for Jayson Werth and admittedly it is WAY too much money. But now they have JAYSON WERTH! I wasn't a big fan of this move initially, but it's a step in the right direction and its the first step. I didn't like when the Ravens signed Donte Stallworth because I thought that was their answer for WR, then Q came along. Hopefully the Orioles can find their Q and ugh…use him better than the Ravens have.
The Nats also blew it with Dunn. The Nats aren't any better than they were 10 days ago.
Agreed. Had the Nats re-signed Dunn and brought in Werth they'd be sitting pretty.
They still don't have pitching, but they could hit the crap out of the ball.