In the spirit of Jimmy the Greek, we’re going to offer you some stone cold locks this football weekend, or, just some spurious guesses based on cursory analysis and casual observation. Either way, this being Baltimore, we thought we’d hear from our favorite wholesale narcotics importer: the man known simply as “The Greek.”
Greek’s 2011 Record ATS: 13-17
Greetings readers. Week 10 was not kind to my wallet nor those of my associates. Clearly when I said “We might just be hitting our groove here” I meant that terrible sounding and feeling grooved pavement you sometimes encounter on the road during repaving projects. The Ravens couldn’t possibly come out flat for a 3rd time after a huge win could they? Yup. Tim Tebow completed 2 passes all game so the Chiefs smashed the Broncos, right? Nope. Andy Dalton won’t telegraph another pass after moving the ball well on what could have been a game tying drive will he? Yup. The Falcons (or anybody for that matter) won’t go for it on 4th and 1 from their own 29 in OT after coming back from being down 10 in the 2nd half will they?! Yup. Ok, well Mark Sanchez won’t throw a pick 6 to send that game over will he? Ugh!! Hopefully some of you pulled a Costanzian effort and chose to “do the opposite”. The Greek vows (or at least promises to try) to do better (you know, at least get 1 right) in week 11. Here are the picks.
Oakland Raiders Pick ‘Em over Minnesota Vikings
Oakland is 3-1 on the road overall, 4-0 in those games ATS and looking to hold their lead in the AFC West. Carson Palmer is playing well and the Vikings are poor against the pass. That said, Minnesota is 2-1-1 ATS at Mall of America Field and features Adrian Peterson waiting to face an Oakland team ranked 24th against the run. In games like these I side with the team that needs the game more. Minnesota is 2-7 and in last place. Oakland needs it more.
Dallas Cowboys -7 over Washington Redskins
I’m abandoning the home dog, division game rule in this one because it seems like the Cowboys have started to come together. They’ve won by double digits the last two weeks and are in a part of their schedule where they could and should roll off 5 straight wins to head into a week 14 showdown against the Giants at home. Dallas hasn’t played well as a favorite ATS (2-3-1), but they are 2-1-1 ATS away from Cowboys Stadium. The Redskins are 1-3 ATS at home and 2-5 ATS as the underdog.
San Francisco 49ers -9.5 over Arizona Cardinals
You haven’t lost this year if you have placed your money on the 49ers. 1 push. 8 wins. Arizona did beat Philadelphia in dramatic fashion in week 10 and could possibly carry that momentum into the week 11 game, but the trend is your friend. 8-0-1 ATS is more than a trend.
Green Bay Packers -14 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Green Bay has had many games with a large line this year. They’re still 7-2 ATS overall and better yet, 4-0 ATS at Lambeau Field. It doesn’t really seem to matter what number the odd-makers put on the Packers. Tampa Bay is 3-6 ATS overall in 2011. They’ve lost 3 straight and are 2-4 ATS as an underdog.
Cincinnati Bengals +7 against Baltimore Ravens
Last week I drew the ire of who I assume is a Steelers fan (thanks for reading island girl) in taking the Bengals. I’m doing it again. Cincinnati is 5-0 ATS on the road this year and are traveling to Baltimore. The Ravens are 3-1 ATS at home, but only 4-4 ATS as the favorite. They’re also 4-0 at home while the Bengals are 4-1 on the road. I think it is a closer game than the 7.
Side note: These teams are a combined 13-3-3 ATS against the over this year.