The Toronto Blue Jays aren’t all that different than the Baltimore Orioles coming into 2011. They both are more or less overlooked (even the O’s get more hype than the Jays), both are relying on a young, unproven staff, and both are coming into Spring Training with a new(ish) manager. The bullpen is going to be a strength after losing Kevin Gregg (you’re welcome), with the additions of Jon Rauch, Octavio Dotel, and Chad Cordero. However, that is where the similarities stop. While the Orioles will be relying on young players in the field with the exception of Derrek Lee (if he ever happens to take the field) and Luke Scott (if he can straighten out his swing), Toronto has a few more reliable commodities to count on to make an impact. Mind you, this does not mean that they are high-producing players- but you know what you are going to get. Remember, this team still went 85-77 last season in this ultra-competitive division. The Blue Jays will get overlooked, but they aren’t going to be an easy out.
The starting rotation looks rather familiar to O’s fans, as it relies on promising young arms, but those arms outperformed the Orioles pitchers last season, at least on paper. Maryland product Brett Cecil continued from his promising rookie year en route to a 4.22 ERA in 28 starts, and Brandon Morrow emerged as a strong power thrower with 178 strikeouts in just 146.1 innings. And I haven’t even gotten to Ricky Romero, who has emerged as the ace of the staff after improving across the board in his second season in the majors. They traded Shaun Marcum, the lone veteran on the staff, to Milwaukee in the offseason, and didn’t add anyone to bolster their rotation- though star prospect Kyle Drabek (the jewel of the Roy Halladay trade) should be ready to take his spot. This unheralded group is going to be dangerous if they can all stay healthy, despite a battle in camp for the 5th starter spot. From the sounds of it, they will be in good shape whether they go with star or Jo-jo Reyes or Marc Rzepczynski and will be deep enough to handle an injury or two. There is no #1 slam-dunk ace on the staff, but there are enough twos and threes to put together a strong season.
New Toronto manager John Farrell wants to have clearly defined roles for his relievers (despite evidence that roles don’t matter), and he will have his pick of a number of solid options. They managed to sign veterans Octavio Dotel, Jon Rauch, and Chad Cordero to bolster an already solid group that included Jason Frasor and David Purcey. The fact is, the Blue Jays will be able to have confidence in whoever gets the ball in the 7th or 8th inning, and will have depth at AAA to bring up in case of injuries. Rauch performed very well as a closer last year in Minnesota, and again, while the bullpen has no singular star, they have plenty of solid role players.
And now we finally get to the lineup. J.P. Arencibia will be a drag on the lineup after John Buck left in free agency as a surprisingly good hitting catcher. Arencibia is still young, and at 24 has plenty of time to grow into his role. But a decent hitting catcher is tough to find, and the Blue Jays won’t have one this year. They gave up the overpaid Vernon Wells and got back about the same amount of production (almost) in Juan Rivera, but that may not have been the biggest move. Rajai Davis will be quite the pickup if he can steal 50 bases like he did last season while playing a strong defensive center field; he will be a test for Matt Wieters to catch stealing. Scott Podsednik could be a nice addition, but I wonder how much he will be able to play and whether he will look more like he did late in the season in LA when he struggled or early on putting up strong numbers in Kansas City. Overall the team didn’t add much (Corey Patterson competing for a roster spot doesn’t inspire much confidence), but will instead be relying on Juan Bautista to keep up his statistical anomaly of the decade season from 2010, when he led the league in home runs with a whopping 54. At the same time they will be hoping for Adam Lind and Aaron Hill to return to form after a dismal 2010.
The biggest thing the Jays offense have going for them is their power, with a number of players not named Jose Bautista very able to hit the long ball. Last season the team had 8 players hit at least 14 home runs- new starting right fielder Travis Snider hit 14 in just 82 games as a 22-year old, and will finally be given the chance to see what he can do with a full season in the majors. However, of those 8 players 4 are gone, and it has yet to be seen whether their replacements can duplicate that power. Juan Rivera will help, but new starters Yunel Escobar and others will have to pick up the slack.
The offense will struggle at times, but may also be more balanced with some speed added to the lineup. The pitching staff will likely have one of their young guns (Romero) seize the role of ace for the next several years, and the bullpen will be solid. Again, everything on this team is good, but nothing about it is great. The offense is actually average at best. However, they will not be an easy out for any team this year. Their record was inflated last year as a result of Bautista’s home run total which is bound to come a bit back to Earth this season. One or more of Toronto’s young pitchers won’t be able to continue their unabated improvement of recent years and take a step back, which is always a risk with a rotation that reliant on youth. With their emphasis on rebuilding I expect the Blue Jays to field an unremarkable but competitive team that hovers around .500 and will likely finish slightly below that by the end of the year. In the AL East, it’s becoming clear that for the Orioles there will be no easy division games.
Noticed you did not mention the Jays acquisition of Frank Francisco courtesy of the Mike Napoli trade. Granted Francisco is coming off arm injury sustained at the end of last season, but if healthy, changes the bullpen dynamic even further for the Jays. Toronto will be better off with a healthy Frasor, Francisco and Rauch closing games than using Dotel. Also worthy of note, Jesse Litsch has been impressing in spring training so far and might seriously push for assuming his former spot as 5th starter in the rotation. A darkhorse coming into camp, Litsch looks to have resolved his arm issues of the past couple of seasons and has shown better accuracy, placement and velocity.
Thanks for catching that, Martin! The Jays bullpen is very impressive, and if healthy Francisco would be a much better weapon than Dotel. This team certainly won’t be easy to score on in the late innings.
While you are correcting things, it’s Shaun Marcum, not Shaum.
I enjoyed the read. Most Jays bloggers wear rose coloured glasses this time of year, so it’s refreshing to get a more objective perspective.
When you write article’s like this in the future, please ensure that you have names correct.
It gives you more credibility.
The New Jay’s Manager’s name is John Farrell, not Mike Farrell. He’s only been in the Division for the last 5 plus years with the Red Sox as their pitching coach.
WOW!….
Thanks for the correction, I will make that change. By the way, you try writing three columns a week filled with details and avoid every typo without an editor. I have to put these together in spurts during my lunch breaks or my spare time at home, and I do a pretty good job. Cut a guy some slack unless you’ve never made a mistake on a sales call. It was a typo, don’t let it take away from the content of the piece.
“WOW!…” is also not a particularly professional or grammatically correct way of typing, it takes away from your credibility.
David,
WOW!….
I didn’t know someone would get so snippy over a mis-name. Mike, John, Dave are all common names. Was the entire article about him…no. Do pay attention to the title, next time, and perhaps when you notice an error, find it within yourself to politely correct the poor guy who’s researching all this for you reading enjoyment in the first place.
This is my first time visiting BSR and I quite appreciate the commentary of all the writers, so thank you!
“J.P. Arencibia will be a drag on the lineup after John Buck left in free agency as a surprisingly good hitting catcher. ” J.P Arencibia is already a better offensive catcher than Buck, this guy was the PCL’s MVP hitting better than .300 and 30 hrs and had one of the best debuts ever in the mlb. Gets your facts straight EXPATRIATE!
He hit .301 last year in AAA before coming to the Blue Jays and hitting .143 with a .189 on base percentage in limited at-bats. He has power, but excuse me if I am not sold on him making an easy transition to the majors. Matt Wieters had far better stats in the minors and it has taken him a long time to become an offensive threat.
So yea, I think I have a legitimate opinion.
I agree on JP. Young catchers should concentrate on running their staffs first, and hitting should come secondary. He should swing a pretty good bat, but it will take some time, and if he doesn’t, the Jays have about 3 guys in the minors that can.
I would also give more weight to Jesse Litsch. He has more experience than anybody else in the rotation, and he’s throwing the ball well. I would but him in the 4th spot behind the hard throwing Morrow, with Jo-jo Reyes as #5, simply because he is out of options. This club has the best pitching depth in baseball right now, so if anybody falls off, there are 3 or 4 guys that will be there with bells on. Make no mistake; this is one of the best rotations in baseball. There may be no 20 game winners, but top to bottom, they have the potential to win 13-15 games each.
Why is everyone getting on the author? I am a Jay’s fan and thought it was an interesting article.
These Jays are unpredictable (due to the youth movement). They could win 80 games they could win 60, but the one thing they are doing is building a solid team with youth. Rogers who owens the team has said they have $80 Million sitting on the books for the GM to use if the team can prove they are ready to take that next step. This is the year to prove then can win 70-80 games without big names. Next year add in big names to the holes we find this year and watch out, these Jays will be a contender.
Next year is not the year. Before they spend a lot of money on “big names”, they will want to develop the talent they have in their farm system. Once they see what guys like Hechevarria, Gose, Lawrie, D’Arnaus, et. al. can do, and become established big league players, then they can trade for a Carter and Alomar to fill the gaps.
This is not a one-and-done team, and in order to do be sustainably competetive, they have to build and rely on a strong farm system. The Yankees are starting to show what happens to clubs that rely on signing big name free agents and trade away their farm system.
In order to be competetive in the AL East, you have to win 95 games, and to be realistic, the potential for The Jays to do this will not be there until 2014 at the earliest. The good news is that they are heading in the right direction.
Rogers won’t let the Jays become the Yankees and trade away their prospects, you can pick up free agents on the market as long as you have cash (and the Jays have a bunch of it sitting in an account). I do agree with you that the Jays may not be ready by next year but there are two things to consider:
1) MLB is going to add 2 more wild cards as of 2012
2) This is the year to find out the gaps. You have Hill and Lind who if they don’t perform this year could be on a bus out of town.
Bottom line, if the Jays win 60 to 70 games this year, Rogers won’t make a splash in the free agent market next winter. But if the Jays can win 80 to 90 games this year, watch out, they could be contending next year. This is a tell tale season for the Jays.
Good read. Thank you!
Ps from a jays fan
I agree, there were MINOR mistakes, but they did not take away from the subject matter of the article. The Jays will be interesting to watch for sure this year, they have a deep, at least 6, starting pitchers, they are loaded in the bull-pen, have speed on the bases and power to spare, not to mention a first class coaching staff, adding Wakamatsu was a coup. This could be THE surprise team in the majors if their young guns, Arencebia, Drabek,Snider, Hill, Lind play to their potential, combined with their added speed of Davis, this team could be a force in the AL East. 90 wins is my prediction. Go Jays!!
With the combination of good young players on the Blue Jays now (position players and pitching) and some great young players in the farm system that probably are good enough to play in 2011, but will be held back until 2012, I see 2012 NOT 2014 as the year they should win 90 to 95 or more games. The Jays could win
90 games this year! And my glasses are clear, not rose colored.
Rogers won’t let the Jays become the Yankees and trade away their prospects, you can pick up free agents on the market as long as you have cash (and the Jays have a bunch of it sitting in an account). I do agree with you that the Jays may not be ready by next year but there are two things to consider:
1) MLB is going to add 2 more wild cards as of 2012
2) This is the year to find out the gaps. You have Hill and Lind who if they don’t perform this year could be on a bus out of town.
Bottom line, if the Jays win 60 to 70 games this year, Rogers won’t make a splash in the free agent market next winter. But if the Jays can win 80 to 90 games this year, watch out, they could be contending next year. This is a tell tale season for the Jays.