Well that didn’t go the way I thought.
If you took my “advice” in Week 1 of the NFL season, let me be the first and probably only person to analogize for my selections. I was 2-1 in Survivor selections and a dreadful 1-3 ATS. But it wasn’t only the bad record, but how incredibly awful the selections played-thanks Lovie Smith/Jack Del Rio/Andrew Luck.
So with the apologies out-of-the-way, it’s time to get back on the winning track this week and I actually have some good vibes on some games after seeing some teams last week.
Indianapolis (-7.5) – Luck and the Colts were housed last week in Ochard Park by a much better than I thought Bills team. That Bills D is no joke and adding Sexy Rex to the mix will only enhance that. But this week, Luck and the Colts will get back to the friendly confines of Lucas Oil Stadium on MNF vs. a Jets team that beat the Browns handily in week 1. This is a good spot to use the Colts as they don’t want to go to 0-2 and the Jets still have Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB.
New Orleans (-10.5) – Yup, I’m officially off the Bucs wagon after just one week. Yes, I was wrong to think Winston was > Mariota in their matchup in week 1. But if Mariota was better than Winston in the Big Pirate Ship last week, then what is future HOF Drew Brees going to do in the Superdome in the Saints home opener in front of 85K hurricane infused fans? Saints roll.
Baltimore (-6.5) – The Raiders were another selection last week, but could be the only time I’ll do that again. They were skull dragged all over their bad baseball field by the visiting Bengals and I expect the desperate Ravens to do the same this week. John Harbaugh doesn’t have many “bad losses” on his resume and this would be one if the Ravens lose in the Black Hole and go to 0-2. Ain’t happening.
Against The Spread Selections
Kansas City (2.5) – The Thursday games are back and the NFL is loving every minute of it. I’m not sure the players or coaches are, but I digress. The Chiefs were my pre-season pick to win the AFC West and they went to Houston in WK 1 and took care of business. The Donkeys, on the other hand, also won but their QB looked like a game manager instead of one of the best of all time in the win. Manning has always struggled in KC as have most QB with the crowd noise (one of the loudest stadiums in the league), but the Broncos have won 8 out of the last 10 meetings overall. Not this time, the Chiefs are the play here.
Jacksonville (+7) – I know, another dreadful team as a selection. Shouldn’t have I learned my lesson last week? The difference here is the Jags are hosting a team in the Dolphins that I thought were outplayed by the dreadful Washington Braveheart’s last week at DeadEx. It took a punt return TD and some boneheaded penalties by the Burgundy and Gold to give the Fish the win on the road. I’m not saying the Jags win the game, but instead saying the Dolphins shouldn’t be favored by a TD on the road to anyone not named Tampa Bay or Oakland.
Green Bay/Seattle (Over 49) – In a re-match of last years NFC title game, the 0-1 Seahawks travel to Lambeau and the 75K + ranch shooting Packer fans for this Sunday Night game. Aaron Rodgers did what he always does to Jay Cutler (12-1 overall) and the Bears and got an opening week win at Solider Field throwing 3 TDs in the process. The ‘Hawks were busy botching an OT on side kick in St. Louis and pointing fingers at their offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell (Marshawn Lynch needs to control his mom on social networking). I think Russell Wilson will play better than he did vs. a good Rams D, but I also think the bloom is off the Seahawk’s defensive rose and I expect some points to be put on the board by the team in Green and Gold too.
St. Louis/Washington (Under 42) – Although Washington did what they normally do and lost a close game with mental mistakes, their defense actually played a great game overall. They only gave up 10 pts (the other TD was on a punt return), while holding the ‘Fins to 74 yards on 18 carries. The Rams front 7 might be the best in the NFL and even though the ‘Hawks put up 31 pts last week, two of the TD’s were on special teams and defense. This one should be low scoring as both teams will try and run the ball first to cover up for their mediocre QB’s. And with DeSean Jackson out (hamstring), I expect Jay Gruden to be even more cautions with 2nd year QB Kirk Cousins.
Daily Fantasy Nuggets:
QB – Drew Brees ($7,800) – Took a look at Brees’ numbers inside the ‘dome. He is like a video game and even though they lost in Arizona last week, he still was able to put up good numbers-without guys like Jimmy Graham. He only had 1 TD, but threw for 354 yards on 48 attempts. This week he takes on a putrid Bucs secondary who last week made Marcus Mariota look like Andrew Luck in his first freaking game (4 TD passes). Good value here with Brees.
RB – DeMarco Murray ($7,000) – Revenge game, if you will? I will. Murray takes on his old team in the Eagles home opener and even though he didn’t have many yards on the ground last week, he still found paydirt twice. I expect him to get plenty of the carries this week in Chip Kelly’s up tempo offense and I also expect him to get the goal line carries this week if for anything because they are playing the Cowboys.
John Brown ($5,000) – The Cards are a different team with Carson Palmer at QB. Larry Fitzgerald isn’t the main man anymore, and Brown is showing he is especially at scoring TDs. He was targeted 7 times and caught 4 of them last week including a 10 yard TD. The Bears are awful in the secondary and I could see Brown getting in the end zone more than once this week.
As I stated above in the Survivor Selection potion of this post, I think the Ravens are poised to get back to 1-1 after this trip to the Black Hole. Oakland was down right awful in their season opening game and in the process got their franchise QB dinged up. Derek Carr is expected to be active for this one, but I just can’t see him being a difference maker at this point of his career. The Ravens will be hungry for a win, not only because they don’t want to start the year 0-2, but because their next two games are divisional games vs. Cincy and Pittsburgh.
Joe Flacco will need to build some chemistry with his WR core outside of Steve Smith Sr. and this might be the best spot to make that happen. Whether it’s Aiken or Marlon Brown, someone will have to step up as 1st round pick Breshad Perriman isn’t walking through that door anytime soon. Justin Forsett and the offensive line also needs to be get on track on the dirty baseball field known as the Oakland Coliseum.
Coach Harbaugh doesn’t have many bad losses on his Ravens resume and I don’t expect this one to be added to that short list. But if the Ravens let the Raiders hang around long enough, it could be a long flight back from San Jose come late Sunday night. I don’t see that being the case though.