NFL Week 12 Picks - Matt Stafford

Week 11 Recap

It was a mixed bag for your fearless forecaster in week 11. Survivor wise, it was a clean sheet as the Seahawks, Bengals and Colts all took care of business. And after a monster ATS heater (8-1 over 3 weeks), your boy was brought back down to earth with a 0-2-1 week. That would bring my month old total 8-3-1 ATS overall with a slew of games this week on the card.

Week 12: Survivor Selections

1. Detroit Lions (-9.5) – Let’s get back to survivor basics. Good team, coming home off a loss with an elite QB vs. a putrid team. Survey says, “The Lions”. Last week the Lions did what they have done since the ’50’s losing in Pittsburgh in a shootout. Now they return to the friendly confines of Ford Field to host a “surging” Tampa Bay Bucs squad. That’s if you consider beating dumpster-fire type teams like the Dolphins and Falcons as “surging”.  Me, I’ll take the Lions especially since this might be the only/last time you will be able to use them.

2. Kansas City Chiefs (-5) – I know what you are thinking. Jab is playing the old “select against the Bolts and hope he’s wrong bit”. You couldn’t be more wrong. The Chiefs, like the Lions, are coming off a loss returning home to one of the toughest stadiums in the NFL to play in. Plus, my beloved Bolts are in the cooler losing 3 straight and haven’t exactly played their best football at Arrowhead in the past. The Chiefs are for real, even with the loss in Denver, and I expect this one to get ugly early in the 4th quarter.

3. Baltimore Ravens (-4) – If you haven’t used the home team yet in your survivor pool, then this is the best spot left and here’s why. The Ravens just don’t lose at home very often (3-1 so far). Additionally, head coach John Harbaugh usually does an outstanding job of getting his team focused after losses and in “must win” type situations (see Cincy two weeks ago). I understand they are coming off a tough one in the Windy City, but under the circumstances I’ll give them a pass on that one. But if this team does lose to the up and down Jets  Ed Reed return 2.0, then look out for pitch forks on Pratt St come 4PM Sunday afternoon.

Week 12 NFL Selections

St. Louis Rams (-1) -The last time we saw the Rams, Charm City’s own Tavon Austin was doing his best Marshall Faulk impression in Indianapolis. Jeff Fisher‘s squad skull dragged the Colts to the tune of 38-8 and now coming off a bye week get the unpredictable Bears of Chicago in St. Louis. Josh McCown has been steady for sure, but this Rams defensive front is second in sacks overall and offensively have quietly been putting up points.

Nuggets: Rams are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. teams with winning road records. Bears are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games after winning in the week before.

Dallas Cowboys/NY Giants (over 47) – Coming off a bye week where Tony Romo and head coach Jason Garrett both said they need to get the ball to WR Dez Bryant no matter the coverage equals a ton of passing yards. Add in the recent 4-game heater from the NY football Giants and you can see why I think this one flies over the posted total. Their last meeting (week 1) in Dallas provided 67 points between the two teams and I expect a repeat performance Sunday in the Meadowlands.

Nuggets: The over is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings. Over is 7-3-1 in the last 11 meetings in New York.

Washington Bravehearts (+5.5) – I know what you are thinking. The Washington football team is a selection? Have you watch them the last couple weeks, Hacky Turns? Why yes I have, thank you. But in this week to week league, what has happened in the past means less than Obama’s word on the Health Care Act. So for this one, I’m just selecting against the public (75% of early $ on the Niners) and taking a home dog on MNF. If you like this selection, you might want to wait until Monday evening to place your selection since most of the public $ will be coming in on the Niners which will increase the odds for the Bravehearts.

Nuggets: Washington is 7-2 ATS vs a team with a winning record.

Ravens Angle

Geno Smith is as up and down as Jenna Jamison in her prime. One week he’s the next Randall Cunningham, the next he’s Kyle Boller. So which one will he be this coming Sunday at the Bank you ask? Well, I think it’s the latter and here’s why.

The Ravens are just absurd at home. Besides the losing to the Packers, the Ravens just don’t do a ton of losing in the artist formerly known as PSI Net. Rex Ryan might have not only saved his job, but just might have the best defensive front 7 in the AFC. That doesn’t exactly bode well for a running game that makes Jacksonville look like the 2001 Ravens.

But with all that being said, I feel this is the type of game QB Joe Flacco will remind all of the Charm City haters why he was paid so handsomely last off-season. And remember, this is basically a mini playoff game as both teams might as well write off their chances with a loss.  The Ravens are as desperate for a win as the Orioles are for front line starting pitching. Give me the defending champs in their house. Ravens 28-17.