With week one in the books, here are two questions.
1. Are you still alive in your survivor pools?
2. Did you make any fun money over the weekend?
If you listened to your boy, then you probably answered yes on both accounts and here’s why.
We went 2-1 on our survivor selections with only the Bears of Chicago pissing the bed in OT vs. the Bills. Both Pittsburgh and Philadelphia put scares into us, but both ended up winning which is all you need in a survivor format.
Gaming wise, it was a mixed bag for us. Our “best bet” was the Atlanta Falcons to not only cover (+3), but win straight up, which they did. The Dallas Cowboys, on the other hand, were about as bad as you can get in their loss at home to the Niners catching 5.5. And depending on when and where you got the over on the Indy/Denver game you either won or pushed as the total sat on 55.
We will keep a running tab of our selections with documented records all year long. So after week 1 here it is:
- Survivor Selections: 2-1 . 67%
- ATS Selections: 1-1-1. 50%
Week 2 Survivor Selections
Green Bay (-8.5) – The Packers are my favorite selection on the board and here’s why. They have ten days to prepare after their opening Thursday night loss at Seattle. They return home to the friendly confines of Lambeau Field where their QB Aaron Rodgers generally doesn’t lose to opponents outside the NFC North. And finally, do you really believe the Packers are going to start the season 0-2? I don’t. Give me the team whose fans will be pounding shots of ranch dressing (among other things) in anticipation for their favorite team’s home opener. This one could get ugly for Patrick Guthrie‘s JETS.
Washington (-6) – The Washington football team isn’t exactly good. RG 2.5 is about as comfortable in this new offense as Roger Goodell was speaking about the Ray Rice incident. But they do return home to DeadEx Field this Sunday and waiting for them are those Jacksonville Jaguars. Now I know I said the Jags would be much improved over last year and they were making me look smart in the first half vs. the Eagles last Sunday going up 17-0 at half. But Cinderella’s shoe must have come off at halftime as they were boat raced 31-0 in the second half. Washington wasn’t that bad in their loss to the Texans and I feel this might be the only spot you can confidently use them survivor wise if you are in a one and done pool.
Denver (-13.5) – The biggest number on the board and why not after week one. Peyton Manning looked like the Manning of the regular season in week one as he dropped three TD passes in their win over the Colts of Indy. Kansas City, on the other hand, showed why I believe they will not only miss the playoffs this year, but might not get to six wins on the season. Not sure the Broncos cover this big spread, but you can be sure they will outscore the Chiefs in the City of Weed.
Week 2 ATS Selections
Atlanta (+5.5) – You can say I’m going back to the well with this selection and you might be right. But in sports wagering, all that matters is who covers and last time I checked the Falcons were winning SU as a dog last week. This week they are dogs again as they head to Cincinnati to take on a Bengals team coming off an impressive opening road win in Baltimore. The Falcons have the look of one of those teams who missed the playoffs last year only to return there in 2015. QB Matt Ryan was the best of the opening weekend and I expect to see much of the same this weekend in the Queen City. Not so bold to say they will win straight up, but catching almost a TD seems good enough for me.
Nugget: Falcons are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Week 2 matchups.
New England (-3) – Tom Brady is bitter. Coach Belichek can’t be happy either. That’s because the Pats were outscored 23-0 in the 2nd half in Miami last week and now have to play another road game in Minnesota. The Vikings hammered the Rams in St. Louis last week and look pretty impressive in the process. But I just don’t see the Pats starting the season 0-2 and this number is low enough (now) to jump on it early. I’m usually a fan of home dogs as all four of you readers know, but in this one I’m going with the QB theory. Brady > Kassel.
Nugget: The Pats are 5-0 ATS when allowing over 350 yards in their previous game.
Philadelphia/Indianapolis (Over 52.5) – You’ll have to wait until Monday night for this one, so like last week’s over try to get this one early. Both of these offenses were great in Week 1, even though both got most of their points in the second halves respectively. This week the conditions inside the Lucas Oil Dome will be perfect for a good, old fashion NFL track meet. I expect both Andrew Luck and Nick Foles to pass for over 300 yards and i also expect to see either a defensive or special teams TD to be scored which is paramount in pushing a total over 50+ pts. But remember to get this one early as all the chaser’s will be looking to recoup their weekend losses with an over on Monday night.
Nugget: Over is 6-0 in last 6 Week 2 matchups for the Eagles.
What a week to play the Steelers. Not only is the home team starting a possible 0-2 start in the division, but an 0-2 start at home where they very rarely lose at all. Add in all the Ray Rice drama and you can see why this one could be one of the most watched Thursday night games in recent history. Will the turmoil this week hurt the Ravens in preparation for the Steelers OR galvanize them as a team?
I’m looking at the later on that one.
I feel the Ravens have enough veteran players in their locker room, guys like Torrey Smith, to let the drama of this week hinder their focus on this monster match up. I also think QB Joe Flacco can’t play as bad as he did in the first half vs. the Bengals as he went 13-31 and made one of the dumbest plays in his career according to him at the end of the half. And I also think the defense will create some turnovers that could get an already angry crowd into this one early.
But will that be enough to beat a Steelers team who dropped 27 points in their first game? Will Flacco get more comfortable in this new West Coast offense that is predicated on quick reads and accuracy? And will Ladarius Webb return (healthy) so guys like Chykie Brown don’t have to match up vs. team’s other #1 WR’s?
I’m not totally sure that all of those questions will be answered this week, but I do like the home team in these short week spots and last time I checked the Ravens usually win at home. Give me the more desperate team at home in this one.