Not a bad bounce back week for yours truly. After a posting a 0-3 record ATS in week 3, your boy was a solid 1-1-1 this week. And if that douche Matt Schaub didn’t turn into Blaine Gabbert late in the Texans 3 pt loss in OT to the Seahawks, things could’ve been even better.
Survivor wise, it was a clean sheet as Denver, Indy and New Orleans rolled to victories. This weeks slate of games isn’t exactly chalk full of easy selections, but here are some of my ideas.
1. Atlanta Falcons (-9.5) host the NY Jets – The Falcons are the Texans/Chargers of the NFC. Look good on paper, but when it counts they fold like a bad poker player. Last Sunday night in the Georgia Dome, where as I pointed out the Falcons were 34-7 under Mike Smith, they laid another egg in a 30-23 loss to the New England Patriots. That’s now back to back losses for the NFC South reigning champs (1-3 overall) and now that the Saints are a sparkling 4-0 (with a win in hand over the Falcons) it’s time for Matty Ice and company to start winning. A good place to start that is this coming Monday Night vs. a mediocre at best Jets squad who is coming off a curb-stomping loss courtesy of the Tennessee Titans. Maybe the Smith/Ryan record at the Georgia Dome is clouding my judgment, but I just don’t see them losing this one.
2. St Louis (-11.5) host the Jacksonville Jaguars – Tim Tebow where are you? That is what the “fans” of the Jags are screaming for in that dump Jacksonville. And if that the case, you are really in a bad spot as a football team. Conversely, the Rams are a much better squad than their 1-3 record would indicate. Hell, before they were housed at home last Thursday by the Niners many experts (not this guy) predicted they would beat the Niners. Didn’t happen. But that doesn’t mean they can’t beat a team that I’m pretty confident Alabama would push in the Jags at home. Rams head coach Jeff Fisher is one of the best in the business so I don’t expect his squad to overlook the Jags. Sam Bradford should throw a couple TD’s and I expect a good Rams defense to shut down a pathetic Jags offense. This might be your best/only spot to use the Rams as well.
3. Green Bay (-7) host the Detroit Lions- Aaron Rodgers and the Pack were off last week and licking their wounds after blowing a game in Cincinnati two weeks ago. The 3-1 Lions, on the other hand, were dropping 30 in the first half last week vs. a good Chicago Bears defense on their way to a 40-32 win. This week these two divisional rivals meet in Lambeau field where the Packers just don’t lose very often. In fact, in this series since 2008 the Packers haven’t lost to the Lions in the building Brett Farve built. Add in the desperate team factor (Packers 1-2) and I think there will be a ton of Lambeau Leaps happening on Sunday.
Nugget: The Packers have won 9 out of the last 10 meetings with the Lions.
1. Philadelphia Eagles at NY Giants (-1)- These two NFC Least teams are a combined 1-7. That one win was Philly’s opening night win in Washington, who just might be the worst defense in the league. But since then, Chip Kelly and his gimmicky “Blur” offense have dropped 3 straight to AFC West squads (SD, KC, Denver). And its not the offense that has been the problem, but its the leaky defense that has let the fans City of Brotherly Love football squad down. They have given up 33, 26, 52 points in the last three weeks, while giving up over 450 yards per game to boot. Now I’m not saying the Giants have been that much better. Far from it. Eli Manning has reverted back to his turnover ways throwing 9 picks to only 6 TDs so far this year. But I have a sneaky suspicion that those numbers will change for the better this week in the Meadowlands. Tom Coughlin is one the hot seat, again. But in my humble opinion he is > Chip Kelly. Add in that I think Eli is > Mike Vick and you can see why I’m laying the point and taking the home team Giants to get their first W of the season.
Nuggets: Giants are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 5. Eagles are 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game (Denver rolled up 472 yards).
2. Denver Broncos at Dallas Cowboys (+7.5)- Call me a sucker, go ahead. You can also stop typing that the Broncos have not only won, but covered the spread comfortably in all of their first 4 games. I get it, Peyton is a machine. Call it a hunch, or just call it fading the public. But I’m shipping my chips in on Tony Romo and the Cowboys to keep this one within the 7.5 (might rise as the week goes on) and might actually win this one straight up. Last week the Cowboys were pulling a Chargers on the Chargers as they let a two TD second half lead slip away. But Jerry’s Boys are a much different team in that circus-like stadium. Week 1 they dropped 36 on the Giants and then in week 3 dropped 31 on the Rams. This week they will need even more than that to keep up with Manning and his Madden-like stats. But I think they find a way to get a couple defensive turnovers and Romo finds Dez Bryant at least twice in the end zone and the ‘Boys keep this one close, if not win out.
Nugget: Romo has won 69% of his starts at home.
3. Detroit Lions at Green Bay (over 52)- These two teams have been playing each other for years, but I’m not sure if they ever have met up with more potent offenses than they both have now. Both teams are averaging over 30.0 pts per game this year and I don’t expect that to change much this Sunday under perfect conditions in Green Bay. Add in the Packers are rested and healthy after a bye last week and the fact that the Lions dropped 30 in the FIRST HALF on a good Chicago defense and you can see why I like this total over. Now 52 is a big number and it could rise as many people will lean towards the over in this one, but I don’t expect to be sweating this one come late Sunday afternoon.
Nugget: The over is 4-0 in the Packers last 4 games overall. Lions have a 2-2 O/U record so far this season.
Well I might not know much, but I’m all over this Ravens squad when it comes to picking them ATS. Two weeks ago I told you they would not only cover against the Texans at home, but I predicted a straight up win. Last week, I told you that -3.5 pt spread in Buffalo stunk worse than the Inner Harbor and again was correct as Joe Flacco just threw another pick. This week they take a trip to South Beach to take on the surprisingly 3-1 Miami Dolphins.
The ‘Fins are coming off a beat down in New Orleans last Monday Night as Drew Brees picked them apart to the tune of 400 + yards and 4 TDs. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill looked more like the mediocre QB I think he is as he turned it over 3 times. The Ravens don’t normally lose back to back games and coach Harbaugh is now calling out players and coaches who haven’t performed up to his standards. I’m guessing a tough week of practice is in store for the Purple and Black at the Castle this week and that usually leads to positive results for good teams. Ravens 27-23.