Cutting your loses with injured players is a hard thing to do. You never want to sell low, especially when you invested a high pick into these guys. There are certain situations that come up that help you determine which guys to hold on to or buy low on, and which guys to cut your loses on and sell.
First round talents are almost impossible to sell low on. Unless a guy is out for multiple months and you feel you have no way of making the playoffs without him, you should keep him. Evan Longoria is this guy and needs to be kept. He is hopefully only a week or two away from returning.
When I look at Chase Utley and Josh Hamilton I see opposite trading situations. Chase Utley is a guy who can probably be acquired extremely cheap right now. If your able to give up a lower tier drafted guy such as Neil Walker for Chase Utley then do it. Its unknown how long Utley will be out, but the upside of him helping your team out in the second half is worth the risk. Utley will still put up 2nd round quality numbers for however long he plays for your team. If you have him do not sell him low. If you don’t have him and someone is looking to trade him for cheap then do it. The opposite goes for Hamilton. Don’t sell him cheap because he is the reigning AL MVP, but if someone offers you fair value for him, then sell. With him having a career season last year, an overachieving average, and being extremely injury prone, he wasn’t a smart pick anyways (which i said in my outfield ranking.) If you can get someone like Jason Heyward or Jay Bruce for him right now I would. But do not give him away. Yes he will put up good numbers once he returns, but the chance of him having another lost season due to multiple injuries, like he did in 2009, is realistic. Right now he is high risk high reward. And I wouldn’t want high risk from anyone in the top 3 rounds of my draft.
Both Zimmerman and Mauer are expected back soon, so I would not sell them. Guys like Kendrys Morales, Zack Greinke, Brian Matusz, and Johnny Cueto who haven’t even played a single game yet should not be sold. With the exception of Cueto I would explore a trade to acquire any of these guys. But only offer value under that of where they were drafted. If Morales was drafted in Round 6 do not offer Jay Bruce since he was as well. Only offer a guy who was drafted a few rounds behind him like Billy Butler. Buying low on a guy like Morales who can hit for power and average could really put your team over the top when they come back. I love drafting, targeting, and acquiring guys like this. People forget exactly how long the season is and if players aren’t performing for them right now there is a chance they would do away with them. So swoop in, take these players, have patience, wait for them to come back, and then reap the benefits. This is the cheapest and easiest way to stack you team full of major talent guys and be virtually unbeatable.
Other guys I would try to dump are Rafael Furcal, Jason Bay, Andres Torres, and Phil Hughes. Don’t cut Hughes. Trade him. Other guys I would hold on to are Ubaldo Jimenez, Rajai Davis, and Tsuyoshi Nishioka.
Hot Pickups:
David Murphy- Filling in for Josh Hamilton perfectly fine. Hits for average, hit some homers, and can steal a good bit of bases.
Danny Espinosa- You still don’t have him??? I’ve told you a dozen times to get him. Now he’s hitting leadoff, he’s stealing, and he’s hitting HR’s. He had a HR a 3B and 6 RBI in the doubleheader yesterday. He is officially on fire.
Danny Valencia- He’s starting to heat up. Its always better to get guys before they start their hot steaks instead of afterwards when they are winding down. Valencia is capable of hitting over .300 with pretty good power.
Jair Jurrjens- He was drafted in round 6 last season and battled injuries. He just returned and looked great in his first start. If he’s available go grab yourself a 6th round caliber pitcher for free.
Brandon McCarthy- Anyone can pitch in Oakland. McCarthy is still young and disgruntled that he never got his shot in Texas. He has 3 quality starts already this year and has pitched deep into all 3 games. Thats a very good sign. He’s going deeper into games than Gio and Anderson.
Michael Pineda- If he’s available in your league this is the first time you’ve read my column. Because I told everyone to get him. And now you see why. And now you see why you should listen to me.
Other Notes: Justin Masterson, Kyle McClellan, and Matt Harrison appear to be real deals. Hold onto them while they are hot. It may also be a good idea to try to sell them high just in case they don’t continue to dominate. Masterson I believe will stay this good because he has more experience and pitched this way down the stretch last year. The other two worry me a little. McClellan has Dave Duncan so he may be fine. Sell Matt Harrison high. If you need saves watch the Nationals situation. Drew Storen got the save yesterday and could be the new (and rightful) closer for the Nats. He is a must add if the job is officially his. It could be a closer by committee situation though, so he may not perform for a few weeks, but sooner or later the job is his.
Speaking of getting guys BEFORE they are hot…..be weary of adding Lance Berkman and David Freese. The Cardinals just had an amazing week and so did both of these guys. Berkman just peaked for the season. He will not have another week that good all year. If Freese hits a bad slump ever he loses his starting job. That scares me. So if you pick these hot players up expect them to cool down by the middle of this week.
Great article! I have hill and becham at 2nd base currently. Espinosa is a free agent. In order to add espinosa I would have to drop one of those two or drop david murphy. What do you suggest?
So I think it will be Boggs, but do you think Batista has a shot of being the closer for the mess that St. Louis has?
@jeffb – Espinosa has more value than Aaron Hill I’d cut him. Beckham is solid.
@Stephen T. – Everything I’ve read has said that Ryan Franklin is still the closer. If he loses the job I’d imagine it would go to Jason Motte. He should be their closer already.
Danny Espinosa doesn’t have a stolen base at the MLB level in his whole career. How is he “stealing bases??”
So Francona has said Lowrie will stay in the line up because of how hot he has dating back from last year. Seeing that he is eligible at SS he is a must add right?
What do you think of Brennan Boesch? I might drop an underperforming picture in order to get a productive bat.
@Anthony – Your right. I noticed that earlier. I was thinking of Ian Desmond’s stolen bases. Espy can run though so I’m sure he will have some soon enough.
@Stephen T – He’s good to add while on his hot streak. Since SS is very thin he’s probably serviceable there. He wont put up great numbers but most Shortstops don’t either.
@Terry M. – Boesch is a mystery. He was great last year in the first half and terrible in the second. He also came out of nowhere last year and wasn’t even a top prospect. Now he’s having a good first half but he’s in some sort of weird platoon with Raburn, while both of them should truly be starting. He’s just too risky for me. Just when your going to have to rely on him he wont be in the starting lineup to make room for Raburn. The problem is Leyland. He is doing an awful job with that lineup. But maybe with Victor Martinez being out he will play more? I just don’t like his situation at all and would probably go with a different outfielder. Don’t cut a stud pitcher, its still only week 3.
What do you think of a Jason Bay for Torii Hunter trade? Where’s the advantage?
Derek Lowe wrecked my pithing stats last night.
@Terry M. – I’ve never been a Jason Bay fan and I always thought he was overrated, BUT he looked good on his minor league rehab and I think he could have a decent season IF healthy. At this point I would take the chance on Bay and say he has the advantage in that trade. I don’t think Hunter will hit for average anymore, and he doesn’t have much power left. I heard an interview with Hunter where he said he would steal 25 bases, but I don’t see that happening either. He is 35. Bay is 3 years younger and can still hit for some power. Both will kill you in average though. And Derek Lowe was overachieving so he was due to get hit. Once the Braves reach potential Lowe is still valuable with all that run support.
So how much do you like this trade? I was able to move Sandoval to 1B and then picked up Espinosa for 2B, while putting Walker at 3B. My OF is now Holliday, Stanton, and Adam Jones
I recieved Neil Walker and Clayton Kershaw
Gave Kinsler, Pence, and Ike Davis.
@Stephen T – I like it because Kinsler won’t stay healthy. Kershaw is a cy young candidate. I think you might hurt a little in HR because none of those guys are proven power hitters. Although I still predict Stanton to hit 35, and Pablo to get to 20.
Bumgarner is giving me nothing. Harrison is available. I’m thinking of putting Bumgarner on waivers and using Harrison for a few starts. I need to keep reminding myself it’s April and I should see it Bumgarner turns it around. i just don’t want to run the risk of falling too far behind in my pitching stats. I hope he gets straightened out.
Coco Crisp seems to be doing well. You think he’s worth taking a flier on?
I also have morales and evan longoria on dl so I figured that I can get some hr power from them later on.
@Terry M. – You said it yourself. Its only April. Don’t cut Bumgarner. It’s a long season. And I am not a Coco fan. He puts up decent numbers while he’s healthy, but he won’t stay healthy
@Stephen T – I also have Longo and Kendry on DL. Not fun. You’ll be fine with those guys coming back.