In the spirit of Jimmy the Greek, we’re going to offer you some stone cold locks this football weekend, or, just some spurious guesses based on cursory analysis and casual observation. Either way, this being Baltimore, we thought we’d hear from our favorite wholesale narcotics importer: the man known simply as “The Greek.”
Greek’s 2011 Record ATS: 18-26-1
Greetings readers. 1-4 reminds The Greek of many things. Primarily the offense learned in 4th grade to combat the fierce St. Helena’s man to man defense (1-4 low worked far better than 1-4 high). Unfortunately, it also now reminds me of Week 13 and all the dogs that bit me straight in the ass. My overall record keeps drifting further from the .500 mark and if not for a wedding I’ll be attending this weekend in Baltimore, I might impose another ban from the area outright. I’ll give myself one more week to turn it around before I hunker down in an undisclosed (probably Jersey) location. Congrats to you if you’ve been reading and then continuing in a Constanzian effort of doing the opposite. Trust me, I am about 1 sorry stuffed in a sack away from going with chicken salad, on rye, un-toasted, with a side of potato salad and a cup of tea. However, for now it’s still tuna on toast. Here are the Week 14 picks.
San Francisco 49ers -3.5 over Arizona Cardinals
Teams just don’t score much on the 49ers defense. Arizona has been playing better and is at home, but 10-1-1 overall ATS is tough to ignore and San Francisco can’t let up yet with the Saints nipping at their heels for the 2nd best record in the NFC. We usually love well playing home dogs, but 3.5 seems too juicy to pass up.
Denver Broncos -3.5 over Chicago Bears
Just add one to last week’s total and you get the Tebows are 6-1 ATS under Tebow. The Denver defense is playing really well and Chicago is now without both Jay Cutler and Matt Forte. Some red flags do pop up as Denver is 1-4 ATS at home and 1-2 ATS as a favorite, but the good news is Chicago 2-3 ATS away from home and 2-4 as the underdog. Not to forget, the reluctant Elway clapping and Tebow channeling divine forces to help you out.
Houston Texans +3 against Cincinnati Bengals
The numbers do point toward the Bengals in this one (7-4-1 ATS overall and 3-2 as a favorite). However, they are only 2-3 ATS at home and a eye opening 1-5 against winning teams in 2011. The Texans are 9-3 ATS overall and 4-2 ATS on the road. They have a superb defense and their running game can and usually will keep them in mostly any contest.
Green Bay Packers -11 over Oakland Raiders
I pointed out Oakland’s great numbers as both a dog and on the road last week when they faced the Dolphins. See what good that did me as they got down 34-0 before managing some points. This week they go to Green Bay. Not sure if you’ve been watching, but the Packers are slightly better than Miami. The Pack got their scare out of the way in New Jersey last week. Now back to your regularly scheduled smashings.
Carolina Panthers +3 against Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons stink ATS overall (4-6-2), away from home (2-4) and as a favorite (2-4-2). They also tend to struggle on grass. Maybe they should hire Ricky Williams as a consultant? I digress. Cam Newton and crew are 7-5 ATS overall and 4-2 ATS at home. I’ll throw out the good old “home dog, division game” here too.