When the Orioles signed Vladimir Guerrero they had intentions of dealing him at the trade deadline. The idea was for him to produce in the first half, keep their offense credible, and then get a big return for him at the deadline. Because of a .278 AVG, only 7 HR, and the injury bug, Vlad isn’t a must have target. His 2010 value would have ranked him amongst the likes of this year’s high value trade deadline hitters such as Carlos Beltran and BJ Upton. But just like Kevin Millwood did last year, Guerrero has killed most of his trade value with poor play. So will Vlad be traded away by this Sunday’s trade deadline? My guess is no. Will he still be traded at all? My guess is yes. Of course after the trade deadline ends players can still be traded. They just have to go through waivers. Because of the large amount on Vlad’s contract he probably will clear waivers. That means there is no rush for the O’s to deal Vlad. Instead they can wait the deadline out and see which contenders failed to acquire a bat. Then they can try to sell Vlad to those teams. Once traded Vlad may not even be a starter on the team he goes to, so he may not get a big return. If there is a decent prospect that is exchanged for him the O’s will probably have to eat a large chunk of his salary. Otherwise dealing him will only be a salary dump. There are still some teams though that may target Vlad by this Sunday’s deadline and may have intentions of him starting. The rumor is that even a few National League teams have called about Guerrero, but rightfully so they are all worried about his defensive liabilities. Vlad couldn’t even play the outfield for the limited number of inter-league games this year. Because of that I don’t think there is any way possible that Vlad would be able to play the field. So in my opinion the only suitors for Vlad are American League teams. There really have not been many rumors floating around as to who is interested in Vlad or what the Orioles are interested in, so I will make educated guesses based on the teams that Vlad would fit with. There are hundreds of prospect in each organization and in a trade like this virtually any of them could be exchanged. Since it is impossible to tell which ones the Orioles like I will mention some more well known players with major league experience. Here is the list of teams that Vlad could be traded to in order from most to least likely.
Texas Rangers- With Vlad being so successful there last year a reunion would work. Texas likes to add excess bats down the stretch as they did last year with Jeff Francoeur, Jorge Cantu, and Cristian Guzman. Guerrero certainly can hit in Texas and there is room for him to play. The Orioles could find interest in struggling utility man David Murphy. He could be a nice backup outfielder for the Orioles with spot starts in left field for a few years. Scott Feldman could be given away by Texas for the price of Vlad. Feldman has struggled the last two seasons, but getting out of that Texas heat could do wonders for him. Maybe a change of scenery could help him rekindle the 17 win magic he had a fews years ago. Taylor Teagarden was left out of the catching mix this year but is a fine backup catcher. He has 16 HR in 113 major league games and is only 27 years old. 15 HR power from a backup catcher would be a great addition on Wieter’s days off. The O’s could also really push for Michael Kirkman who is being auditioned at the major league level right now. He has the upside of a decent #3 starter.
New York Yankees- With Jorge Posada being their primary DH they could use an upgrade. Brandon Laird made his major league debut last night at third base for the Yankees. He is their #10 Baseball America organizational prospect and may have been brought up to use as trade bait. Outfielder Chris Dickerson who comes off the bench for the Yankees could be someone the O’s could have interest in. He is hitting .296 in a limited major league role, but is already 28 years old. With the emergence of Jesus Montero soon maybe Francisco Cervelli would make a great long term backup catch to Matt Wieters. I’m actually in favor of this idea. Cervelli has pop, is only 25 years old, and is a decent starter on Wieters’ off days.
Minnesota Twins- They do have Jim Thome at DH, but he gets days off. The Twins are a kind of a team that could really use a bat like Guerrero’s if they take the chance on him and he excels. It could be a huge addition to the middle of their lineup. Kevin Slowey could be traded in a deal like this. Slowey would be a welcomed experienced big league arm to the O’s struggling rotation. Scott Diamond is a guy that the Twins have brought up for a spot start to show off as trade bait. He could be a guy the O’s look at because he is major league ready. Plus he isn’t a major prospect that would cost too much. He is a nice arm that could try to crack the O’s rotation. Carlos Gutierrez is the Twins #10 ranked prospect on their Baseball America top 10. He has pitched well at AAA and may be major league ready.
Detroit Tigers- They seem to match with the Orioles in almost every trade. Because Vlad has less impact value than both Guthrie and Uehara someone like Andy Oliver would not be traded in a move like this. Charlie Furbush is a stretch, but if the Tigers decide they really need another bat the O’s don’t back down on him, I can see Detroit moving Furbush for Guerrero. With Victor Martinez being able to catch and Alex Avila getting some days off, there are some days that Vlad would be able to get a start in Detroit. He would be a nice bat off their bench as well. Furbush may be too pricy for a reserve player. Guys with major league experience that could be available are second basemen Wil Rhymes and outfielder Casper Wells.
Los Angeles Angels- Maybe a reunion here would work. With Bobby Abreu being flexible enough to play in the outfield the Angels could have the need for a part time DH/reserve hitter. Maybe the Angels finally give up on aging and failing outfielder Reggie Willits. Alberto Callaspo or Cesar’s brother Maicer Izturis could become available if the team acquires another 3B such as Aramis Ramirez. None of those guys have exciting upside, but Callaspo is a high average player who could play a nice utility role in the infield.
Overall it looks like Vlad would only bring decent prospects or a good major league platoon player. I personally like the idea of the solid backup catcher so I would be happy to bring in Cervelli or Teagarden in a deal like this. It would be an upgrade to Craig Tatum and could do wonder’s offensively to fill in for Wieters. Since Wieters’ production will continue to increase it will be more vital to replace his offensive numbers during off days. Hopefully Vlad picks it up over the next few days and McPhail can pull off a deal for some rotation help. Furbush, Slowey, and Feldman would be better options than what we have now. Remember not to think Vlad will finish the 2011 season as an Oriole if he isn’t moved this Sunday. Because there is more of chance of him being traded sometime in August after he clears waivers.
Haven’t you learned the process yet ? Free agents come to Baltimore to die , why , because baseball is dead in Baltimore………….
Spy I’m not sure if anyone has said this to you yet, but although you hate everything about Baltimore sports and you negatively comment on every single article (not just my own), I truly thank you for spending so much time on this site. Especially my articles. I know I have a guaranteed read from Spy every day. Thank you.
No problem , I really like the funny pages…………
Haven’t you learned yet? People like Mark are paid to write articles like this, regardless of what condition the team is in.
It is OBVIOUS that some of the signings made this winter/spring were to allow Baltimore to have something to trade away.
That’s usually the main goal for one year deals. Get a guy who can make your team credible for most of the year and then get a nice return for him. Unfortunately it hasn’t worked out that great for the O’s over the last few years. When they do get an overachiever who plays well, like Hardy, they resign him! But Hardy will be a nice 2B once Machado is up and I’m ok with that move.
One thing is an awful lot of teams need both a good batting right handed bat, and a reliever. If some teams come calling for Koji they very may well insist on a right handed bat being included in Baltimore wants a solid pitcher, so that means Guerrero or Lee. Since Baltimore can trade Lee to a team that needs a 1st baseman, that leaves Vlad the Cannon.
Toilet paper… The O’s could probably get a case of toilet paper for Vlad…
What the real issue is if Vlad doesn’t get traded and leaves via free agency the O’s will get a draft pick in what is perhaps the most unfair compensation system in sports. The system was supposed to help the bad teams get better alot quicker but it doesn’t work that way.
Just last year, the Yanks, RedSox and Rays got like 10-12 extra comp picks between them BEFORE the O’s even got a 2nd pick. That is not a fair compensation system.
The Orioles only way to get better is to stop being scared and make some fantastic trades. Hell teams are already making trades and yet again, McFail is sitting back doing nothing. Every player on the O’s save for Adam Jones, Hardy and Wieters should be on the market.
And why don’t the O’s even trade to get better? Go after a Hunter Pence who is young, cheap and has years to go on his contract. Trade some of those overrated players the O’s have. Give up some young arms for Ubaldo Jimenez or B.J. Upton.
This team is afraid to make a trade and even more scared to spend money on a star player.
First of all the O’s did make fantastic off season trades getting one of your untouchables…JJ Hardy. Plus they brought in Reynolds who is still young, doesn’t make a whole lot, and hits a lot of HR’s. McPhail has also given the team Adam Jones, Wieters, and Matusz. I know Matusz hasn’t done anything yet, but next year at this time you’ll be laughing that he used to struggle. To get Hunter Pence the Astros want an impact outfielder. Reimold/Pie/Angle/anyone in the farm system doesn’t cut it. So do you want to give up Jones or Markakis for him? Trade the overrated players? They will trade Vlad and Lee, but you won’t get a ton for them. The Rays won’t trade Upton in division so he’s out. I’m with you on Ubaldo though. But Colorodo is going to want Britton or Matusz or both and more. Are you willing to give up Britton/Arrieta/Tillman for him? That would give us Ubaldo, Matusz, and nothing because their aren’t really anymore good arms coming in the system. Dan Klein? He would be a #5 pitching prospect in most organizations, and he is our top. With a weak farm system (because all of our prospects have graduated to the majors and are still young) we don’t have the pieces to acquire those big players unless we rip a team off like the Blue Jays did to the Cardinals today. So for now it is what it is and the O’s will target the young guys like Andy Oliver, Furbush, and Lincoln who they can afford with what they have. Hopefully those guys turn into solid major leaguers. The foundation is there with Wieters/Hardy/Reynolds/Machado/Jones/Markakis. A free agent bat like Fielder is needed to complete the building process. Young pitching is needed to fill the rotation at this deadline.
I would give up Matusz or Britton for Jimenez in a heartbeat. What has Matusz and Britton done? Exactly….
I think the Reynolds trade was a great steal… Unfortunately I don’t think he will be with the club next July trading deadline…
McPhail has also given the team Hobgood, Rowell, Vlad, Mike Gonzalez, Lee, Tatum, Fox, Hendrickson, Andino, Albers, Jakubanoski (sp), Duchscherer, etc…
I’d trade Markakis for Pence in a heartbeat also… Hell, Markakis and Britton for Pence and Wandy Rodriquez…
When I say overrated my intention is that the Orioles have always overrated their minor leaguers…
Agree that Reimold/Pie don’t cut it as impact outfielders but the worst part is that they have been the O’s LF for the past 2-3 years. That’s sad…
I would also deal Britton for Ubaldo. Matusz is only 24 and was the first pitcher drafted in the entire country 3 years ago. In 3 years Matusz will be as good as Ubaldo is now. Mark my words.
For all the good moves that are made there are always twice as many bad ones. If a GM made good moves 100% of the time he would win the World Series every year. To be fair some of those guys you named were good at some point or didn’t have a very large role to be a factor. Hobgood still young. Rowell terrible. Vlad decent. Gonzalez terrible. Lee decent. Tatum good backup. Fox solid utility guy. Hendrickson was great the first year. Andino has been a good part time playing pickup. Albers was always bad. Jakubauskas mediocre. Duchscherer I wasn’t a fan of signing but there was low risk.
Markakis for Pence doesn’t make much sense. They are very similar. Markakis/Britton for Pence/Wandy is more of a fantasy trade and there is no chance Houston would do that.
I don’t think the O’s have overrated their minor leaguers. Baseball America ranked Wieters #1, Matusz #3, and Britton/Arrieta in their top 100. They also have Machado high. So its not just the O’s its the entire baseball world.
Reimold hasn’t gotten the chance to start every day consistently…ever. And I’m excited to see to see what he can do in that role because he has power and upside.