Chris Davis’ Chances Of Matching Roger Maris’ Single Season Home Run Total: 8.6%
At his current pace, Chris Davis is set to finish the season with 62 home runs, one more than Roger Maris‘ mark set in 1961. Davis has already told reporters that he views Maris as the true home run king despite the record books showing Sammy Sosa, Mark McGwire and Barry Bonds ahead on the single-season home run list.
Some have viewed this as a cop out answer, since Davis has an incredibly slim chance of hitting 74 home runs. These people obviously don’t know much about Davis.
Over at FanGraphs.com, Steve Staude examined Crush’s chances of hitting 62 long balls in 2013. Staude broke down Davis’ true home run rate, projected his plate appearances and came to the conclusion that Davis has an 8.6 percent chance of hitting 61 home runs this season and a 6.4 percent chance of hitting 62.
Staude continued to calculate Davis’ chances through 71 home runs, where he gives Davis .2% chance of reaching that mark.