Chris Davis’ Chances Of Matching Roger Maris’ Single Season Home Run Total: 8.6%

Chris DavisAt his current pace, Chris Davis is set to finish the season with 62 home runs, one more than Roger Maris‘ mark set in 1961. Davis has already told reporters that he views Maris as the true home run king despite the record books showing Sammy Sosa, Mark McGwire and Barry Bonds ahead on the single-season home run list.

Some have viewed this as a cop out answer, since Davis has an incredibly slim chance of hitting 74 home runs. These people obviously don’t know much about Davis.

Over at FanGraphs.com, Steve Staude examined Crush’s chances of hitting 62 long balls in 2013. Staude broke down Davis’ true home run rate, projected his plate appearances and came to the conclusion that Davis has an 8.6 percent chance of hitting 61 home runs this season and a 6.4 percent chance of hitting 62.

Staude continued to calculate Davis’ chances through 71 home runs, where he gives Davis .2% chance of reaching that mark.

Zach Wilt is the Founding Editor of BaltimoreSportsReport.com and host of the BSR Podcast. He's a loyal Orioles, Ravens and Capitals fan who is obsessed with baseball, loves traveling, In-N-Out Burger and Walt Disney World.

3 Comments

  1. Willo

    July 19, 2013 at 5:07 pm

    I love CD and I hope that he matches his five year career home run total in 2013. That said, I think that he needs to subscribe to Bucks philosophy…concentrate on today and worry about tomorrow when it gets here. Being 27 and getting a taste of success, he is getting caught up in all of the hype…better to be humble and good, then arrogant and yesterday’s news. CD needs to first concentrate on hitting 14 more dingers to surpass Brady for the team single season record before he worries about Maris and Bond.

    • spy

      July 20, 2013 at 9:42 am

      Agree,,,,,,,,,,I still can’t believe Anderson is the O’s all time single season HR king,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,I don’t care if Davis is on HGH or not , he must break Anderson’s record,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,NO one will ever break Barry’s record , it is super human…………