Jab’s Winning Nuggets: NFL Week 15 Picks
Week 15: Survivor Selections
1. Carolina Panthers (-11) – The last time we saw this Panther team, Drew Brees was craving them up like a turkey in the Superdome. That loss put an end to their 8 game winning heater (7-2 ATS) and probably dashed any hope of winning the NFC South in the process. But I feel they will bounce back this week vs. the NY Jets and quite comfortably in the process. And since the Jets won last week, that almost guarantees loss this week based on their up and down season.
2. Dallas Cowboys (-7) – Speaking of teams that are more up and down than Kim Kardashian weight, the Cowboys are back home hosting the Araon Rodgers-less Packers. This game is HUGE for the ‘Boys on many fronts, but most importantly they need it to stay in shouting distance from the 1st place Eagles of Philly (who they close the season with in Jerry’s World). I expect the Cowboys to roll to a pretty easy victory here.
Nuggets: Home team is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings. Packers are 0-6 in their last 6 vs. NFC.
3. Atlanta Falcons (-7) – How bad has it gone for the Bravehearts of Washington this season? Subway Bob Griffin, who could’ve pushed Obama in the ratings last year, has been awful and is benched for the rest of the season in favor of Captain Kirk Cousins. The Red Lobster (Mike Shanahan) is trying worse than the dude from “Office Space” to get Dirty Dan Snyder to fire him, but so far he’s still collecting checks. Atlanta isn’t exactly the New England Patriots this year, but haven’t given up and should send St. Louis Rams fans an early Xmas gift beating the Washington football team as they have their 1st round pick in next years NFL draft. What a disaster.
Week 15 NFL Selections
Indianapolis Colts (-5.5) – My boy toy, Andrew Luck, and the Colts let me down last week as a selection. But this week they return home to entertain the worst team (record wise) in the NFL in the Houston Texans. And although the Colts have secured the pathetic AFC South division title and a playoff home game, they really need a good game to regain some confidence. And the Texans are a perfect team to do that against based on this years “performances”.
Nuggets: Colts are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC South teams. Colts are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
St. Louis Rams (+6.5) – Jeff Fisher is coaching his ass off. Maybe the results isn’t exactly what he is looking for as the team is 5-8, but they are as competitive as anyone week in week out. This week the challenge is stopping Drew Brees and the Saints high-powered offense. Best way to do that is get him off his “spot” in the pocket and the Rams have the defensive line that can do that. This is also a “sandwich” or “trap” type game for the Saints as they are coming off a huge win over the Panthers last week and play them again next week.
Nuggets: Rams are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Ravens at Lions (Over 48) – This one has the feeling of a good, old fashion shoot out written all over it. Matt Stafford loves to throw it. Megatron is almost unarguable. Reggie Bush is going to play and could be a huge mis-match for the Ravens slow footed LB’s. The Ravens, on the other hand, seem to be ready to break out on offense as this one will take place indoors on a fast track in prime time. Dennis Pitta‘s return only helps WR Torrey Smith as the Lions struggle in pass coverage.The final over cherry on top is both teams posses kick returning specialists that can not only flip field position, but seem to take it to the house every other game.
Nuggets: Over is 1-1-2 in Lions last 13 games in WK 15. Over is 6-1 in Lions last 7 home games.
After one of the most improbable wins in recent history, the Ravens take their circus like act on the road to MoTown to take on the Lions on Monday Night Football. Both teams have flaws, which is probably why they both sit 7-6 and need wins to secure playoff tickets. The Lions have the best WR in the sport and a QB who will thrown it all over the lot (which sometimes means picks for the opponent).
The Ravens are 1-5 on the road this season, while averaging under 20 pts per game on offense in the process. They will need to at least crack 24 pts this week as I think the Lions will put up at least that much. The fast, indoor track could benefit the Ravens as they have played back to back cold weather games. The addition of Dennis Pitta was also evident last week and can only help Joe Flacco and the entire offense going forward.
But in my opinion, this high scoring affair could be determined in the 4th quarter (which favors the Ravens). That’s because the Lions are a “front running” type team and have struggled to close out games late (see Tampa Bay, Philly, Pittsburgh losses). Their wins have been when they have got up early and were able to pound Reggie Bush and Bell late to win going away. Not exactly sure who wins this one, but I will take the 6 points and the Ravens on the gaming side of things at the very least and WOULDN’T be shocked if they pull out the win. Ravens 28-27.